Will Putin use tactical nukes?

[jpevans]

Let's consider the only time that nuclear weapons have ever been used. Had the USAF bombed Japan as badly as we could have? No. We firebombed Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, but we hadn't dropped nearly as much ordnance as we had. We could have continued firebombing. We dropped nukes instead. Why? To terrorize.

Syria's Assad used chemical weapons against his own people and Putin indiscriminately bombed Syria's opposition in support of him. Why? To terrorize. When leaders use nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, they do so to send the message that they're capable of *anything*. That message wouldn't be just for Ukraine; it would be for NATO. Russia wants to strike fear into the heart of NATO.

They have to be capable of anything to send that message.

 

[BahamaBob]

Ah but are we willing to take that gamble? All sites hit with a conventional nuke will be out of commission for our lifetimes. This is about all the U.S. major cities as wasteland along with all or bases and posts. People starving and disease rampant. Is it worth the risk?

If Putin scares you that bad, maybe you need to dig a bomb shelter.

 

[rickc]

If putin uses nukes it won't be about the Ukraine War. It will have to be more personal.

If they can find Putin's wealth and confiscate it that will drive him over the edge. I am sure he is pissed about his yacht that is about to get sanctioned. Cut a wealthy man off from his money and he will fight dirty.

 

[DarkWizard12]

He invaded because he thought it would be a slam dunk & because he sees himself as leader of what he calls the New Russia, i.e. the reconstructed Soviet Union. Also because he's effen crazy.

well, you would be wrong. Those would only be reasons why he would expect victory. Not a cassus beli to war.

 

[multivita-man]

How is an invading Army supposed to take a city if it is contested in urban warfare? How did the Marines take Fallujah in the 2nd battle of Fallujah? Or Hue during the Tet offensive? If a defending Army chooses to make a stand in a city, the city is in for some brutal shelling

There are brutal air assaults with the intent of breaking the resistance's ability to wage war (i.e. attacking mostly military targets), and then there are assaults that have no other intent behind them other than destruction of civilization. The way this was supposed to work, was that Russia was going to use the doctrine of overwhelming force. The problem is that despite their sheer numerical advantage, Russia's forces were rather...underwhelming. This caught Putin - and perhaps some of his planners -by surprise. In other words, they severely miscalculated.

 

[Hamish Howl]

I'm not even gonna guess, because I've been wrong about everything during this war, and I don't want to jinx it.

 

[multivita-man]

If putin uses nukes it won't be about the Ukraine War. It will have to be more personal.

If they can find Putin's wealth and confiscate it that will drive him over the edge. I am sure he is pissed about his yacht that is about to get sanctioned. Cut a wealthy man off from his money and he will fight dirty.

IIRC, the way it works, Putin can't just decide to launch nukes on his own. That said, it's important to keep in mind that people in Putin's tight circle are in the same position he's in - hung out to dry if people get fed up with the regime. Just getting rid of Putin may not be enough. I was hoping that by now Putin would see some sort of face-saving way out of this but his insistence upon 'de-nazifying' Ukraine has been delusional, and it's massively increase the amount of sunken costs - and that gets massively worse with each passing day there's no resolution.

There's a reason NATO is meeting today. They see exactly what I've written above: the sunken costs are pushing Putin into a corner, and worse, they're painting him in it.

 

[Common Sense 1]

Nope!

 

[upsideguy]

Putin doesn’t want to annihilate Ukraine’s infrastructure. He wants to be able to use it when he takes over. It’s the reason he hasn’t completely blown up all of it. Who would have to pay to fix it all once he’s in charge?

I see no evidence of that statement. Plenty of evidence of extensive and indiscriminate bombing with the emphasis on death and destruction. I would like to believe you. Got anything to help me believe you?

 

[Lursa]

I see no evidence of that statement. Plenty of evidence of extensive and indiscriminate bombing with the emphasis on death and destruction. I would like to believe you. Got anything to help me believe you?

If he ends up 'owning it', he's gonna have to pay to fix it, right? Yes, no?

The more damaged the infrastructure, the more justification for Ukrainian resistance forces after (potential) occupation.

And it's not like the west is going to stop economic sanctions on Russia if they succeed. So where is the $ going to come from? Or...what is Putin looking to gain if not a viable satellite country?

 

[multivita-man]

If he ends up 'owning it', he's gonna have to pay to fix it, right? Yes, no?

He never wanted to own Ukraine; he wants to control the regime there. Big difference between claiming Ukraine for Russia and trying to control its civilian population than having political control over a country.

The more damaged the infrastructure, the more justification for Ukrainian resistance forces after (potential) occupation.

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the situation, and you're viewing this as a WWII type conquest. It's not. Ukrainian resistance will be a thing as long as Russia continues to violate its territorial sovereignty, irrespective of whatever infrastructure is left. Russia is destroying infrastructure on purpose so that Ukraine's government collapses and its civilians accept Russian terms and conditions for ending the conflict. Russia is using dead civilians to bring the Ukrainian government to the bargaining table, hoping they'll be terrorized enough to capitulate.

And it's not like the west is going to stop economic sanctions on Russia if they succeed. So where is the $ going to come from? Or...what is Putin looking to gain if not a viable satellite country?

He had hoped he could bring Ukraine under his political control quickly, force Ukraine to accept his terms, install a puppet government, and then gradually withdraw. He completely miscalculated the amount of resistance he'd face in Ukraine and he also completely miscalculated his army's ability to overwhelm Ukraine's armed forces -- these are complete miscalculations on his part. Ever since the second week of the war he's been trying to find a face-saving way out of this mess. He probably thought his way out would involve terrorizing the civilian population with bombs, and it initially seemed to be working as many civilians have left Ukrainian cities. However, Ukraine is not only resisting, they are beginning to drive Russian forces back, so it's clear that Russia is now not only not winning the war, in some regards, they're getting their asses kicked. Putin's faced with the possibility that his 100,000-man strong ground presence in Ukraine could completely crumble within the coming weeks. He will not win an occupation this way, and he knows it. He can only 'win' by brutalizing Ukraine, and by escalating the brutality. This is why NATO's getting involved now. They recognize what Putin is doing.

 

[Lursa]

He never wanted to own Ukraine; he wants to control the regime there. Big difference between claiming Ukraine for Russia and trying to control its civilian population than having political control over a country.

Distinction without a difference now that he's invaded. If he succeeds, he/Russia controls the country.

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the situation, and you're viewing this as a WWII type conquest. It's not. Ukrainian resistance will be a thing as long as Russia continues to violate its territorial sovereignty, irrespective of whatever infrastructure is left.

Yes. I've written that.

Russia is destroying infrastructure on purpose so that Ukraine's government collapses and its civilians accept Russian terms and conditions for ending the conflict. Russia is using dead civilians to bring the Ukrainian government to the bargaining table, hoping they'll be terrorized enough to capitulate.

I doubt that about the infrastructure, it will still cost them $$. And the part about dead civilians isnt even necessary, they're rounding them up and shipping them alive to camps in Russia. They have their hostages. They have that leverage.

He had hoped he could bring Ukraine under his political control quickly, force Ukraine to accept his terms, install a puppet government, and then gradually withdraw.

Still disagree about puppet govt but depends what that means. There would still be a Ukraine but it would be completely under Russian control. It would no longer be an independent nation.

He completely miscalculated the amount of resistance he'd face in Ukraine and he also completely miscalculated his army's ability to overwhelm Ukraine's armed forces -- these are complete miscalculations on his part.

It seems like it. I hope that's true.

Ever since the second week of the war he's been trying to find a face-saving way out of this mess. He probably thought his way out would involve terrorizing the civilian population with bombs, and it initially seemed to be working as many civilians have left Ukrainian cities. However, Ukraine is not only resisting, they are beginning to drive Russian forces back, so it's clear that Russia is now not only not winning the war, in some regards, they're getting their asses kicked. Putin's faced with the possibility that his 100,000-man strong ground presence in Ukraine could completely crumble within the coming weeks. He will not win an occupation this way, and he knows it. He can only 'win' by brutalizing Ukraine, and by escalating the brutality. This is why NATO's getting involved now. They recognize what Putin is doing.

For the most part I disagree with your conclusions. He knew there would be resistance and sanctions. Sanctions take time to work, he had saved up a 'war chest' to prepare for that. I dont know that he thought it would be quick...but he may realize now that it's not going to work the way he wants it to.

But at this point, there is no "out" for Putin personally. He's now a war criminal. If he fails, he's in big trouble at home. If he wins the Ukraine, the rest of the global community should still keep the sanctions in place and his economy will continue to fail, the country will be isolated again, and the people, without the consumer goods that kept them happy (& submissive) before, will become a real problem.

 

[multivita-man]

Distinction without a difference now that he's invaded. If he succeeds, he/Russia controls the country.

No, it's a distinction with a big difference: one involves a short-term commitment and withdrawal; the other - what you've suggested he wanted - requires a long-term commitment that he cannot fulfill without taking on serious losses. Why do you think he has now changed the focus of the war to the Donbas? I'll answer it: because he knows he can't take control of Ukraine as a whole. Putin thought he could invade, overwhelm, set up a puppet regime, and then leave. He can't do that now.

 

[Lursa]

No, it's a distinction with a big difference: one involves a short-term commitment and withdrawal; the other

Withdrawal or not, what I wrote about them being no longer independent and under Russian control stands. And they will have to occupy it for a long time because the Ukraines arent going to just stop resisting.

- what you've suggested he wanted - requires a long-term commitment that he cannot fulfill without taking on serious losses.

Probably, yup. Very expensive too.

Why do you think he has now changed the focus of the war to the Donbas? I'll answer it: because he knows he can't take control of Ukraine as a whole.

He may now be hoping that he can get a "piece" of it, but that was claimed from the first, that he would be satisfied with just 2 regions that favored Russia anyway. I dunno, it doenst look like most of Ukraine is going to take that lightly...they're not accepting that yet and not negotiating on it. Yet.

Putin thought he could invade, overwhelm, set up a puppet regime, and then leave. He can't do that now.

He would never have been able to leave completely, not for years. It would have required occupation for sometime, costing lives and $$.

 

[noonereal]

If putin uses nukes it won't be about the Ukraine War. It will have to be more personal.

If they can find Putin's wealth and confiscate it that will drive him over the edge. I am sure he is pissed about his yacht that is about to get sanctioned. Cut a wealthy man off from his money and he will fight dirty.

Sorry. Bad analysis.