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Will Putin meddle in Belarus? It depends on what he thinks is best for "Russia"

Litwin

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my question, is simple will Putin attack Belarus, and what his buddy D Trump is gonna do in case of the new Putin´s aggression ?

"Putin has a choice: Does he repeat his 2014 maneuver — letting Lukashenko flee while gobbling up Belarus, risking a backlash from the West — or does he allow the situation to play out and modulate his interference? The fate of Belarus depends on what he decides.

Putin is in a strange spot, with protests on at least two sides: To the west, the people of Belarus — a former Soviet republic ...— have taken to the streets. The protests have spread, from the country’s intelligentsia to its miners, public transportation workers and even soldiers and police, who’ve begun balking at their role in keeping fellow Belarusians at bay. To the east, Khabarovsk — a major city near Russia’s Pacific coast and seven time zones from Moscow — has been in revolt for weeks after Putin removed a popularly elected governor and replaced him with a hand-selected loyalist.
Y_Dg-cjU-QN_C_hgrupJVfD5xqbID76XljDGtpwnyQ_4ONjhOozu3R2LAYB02PcTGdY91LRPkVr13AYZ11Q0cl-2ZCoIm6f5f7yqXTUs3ubqYuAJP-_1qDezPENOofA9BEeMCr2hy896glw

If he hasn’t made it abundantly clear by now, Putin hates protests. Ever since he was a KGB officer based in Dresden, in East Germany, and watched as protests eroded the Soviet empire, he has viewed popular protests as harbingers of instability, violence and, worse, the collapse of the state. It was the reason that, in 2005, Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe.” Two years ago, he reprised the sentiment, saying he would undo the dismantling of the U.S.S.R. if he could."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/15/putin-lukashenko-belarus-russia/
 

Tigerace117

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my question, is simple will Putin attack Belarus, and what his buddy D Trump is gonna do in case of the new Putin´s aggression ?

"Putin has a choice: Does he repeat his 2014 maneuver — letting Lukashenko flee while gobbling up Belarus, risking a backlash from the West — or does he allow the situation to play out and modulate his interference? The fate of Belarus depends on what he decides.

Putin is in a strange spot, with protests on at least two sides: To the west, the people of Belarus — a former Soviet republic ...— have taken to the streets. The protests have spread, from the country’s intelligentsia to its miners, public transportation workers and even soldiers and police, who’ve begun balking at their role in keeping fellow Belarusians at bay. To the east, Khabarovsk — a major city near Russia’s Pacific coast and seven time zones from Moscow — has been in revolt for weeks after Putin removed a popularly elected governor and replaced him with a hand-selected loyalist.
Y_Dg-cjU-QN_C_hgrupJVfD5xqbID76XljDGtpwnyQ_4ONjhOozu3R2LAYB02PcTGdY91LRPkVr13AYZ11Q0cl-2ZCoIm6f5f7yqXTUs3ubqYuAJP-_1qDezPENOofA9BEeMCr2hy896glw

If he hasn’t made it abundantly clear by now, Putin hates protests. Ever since he was a KGB officer based in Dresden, in East Germany, and watched as protests eroded the Soviet empire, he has viewed popular protests as harbingers of instability, violence and, worse, the collapse of the state. It was the reason that, in 2005, Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe.” Two years ago, he reprised the sentiment, saying he would undo the dismantling of the U.S.S.R. if he could."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/15/putin-lukashenko-belarus-russia/

Breaking news: Russian leader will do what he thinks is best for Russia. How shocking :roll:
 

Litwin

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Breaking news: Russian leader will do what he thinks is best for Russia. How shocking :roll:

i am not surprised that YOU support Muscovite barbaric hordes ,

b88a1e55bf44.jpg
so typical for all old Marxists on Moscow´s payroll
 

Felis Leo

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my question, is simple will Putin attack Belarus, and what his buddy D Trump is gonna do in case of the new Putin´s aggression ?

"Putin has a choice: Does he repeat his 2014 maneuver — letting Lukashenko flee while gobbling up Belarus, risking a backlash from the West — or does he allow the situation to play out and modulate his interference? The fate of Belarus depends on what he decides.

Putin is in a strange spot, with protests on at least two sides: To the west, the people of Belarus — a former Soviet republic ...— have taken to the streets. The protests have spread, from the country’s intelligentsia to its miners, public transportation workers and even soldiers and police, who’ve begun balking at their role in keeping fellow Belarusians at bay. To the east, Khabarovsk — a major city near Russia’s Pacific coast and seven time zones from Moscow — has been in revolt for weeks after Putin removed a popularly elected governor and replaced him with a hand-selected loyalist.
Y_Dg-cjU-QN_C_hgrupJVfD5xqbID76XljDGtpwnyQ_4ONjhOozu3R2LAYB02PcTGdY91LRPkVr13AYZ11Q0cl-2ZCoIm6f5f7yqXTUs3ubqYuAJP-_1qDezPENOofA9BEeMCr2hy896glw

If he hasn’t made it abundantly clear by now, Putin hates protests. Ever since he was a KGB officer based in Dresden, in East Germany, and watched as protests eroded the Soviet empire, he has viewed popular protests as harbingers of instability, violence and, worse, the collapse of the state. It was the reason that, in 2005, Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe.” Two years ago, he reprised the sentiment, saying he would undo the dismantling of the U.S.S.R. if he could."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/15/putin-lukashenko-belarus-russia/

Russia has taken an interest and will continue to take an interest in every one of its former limitrophes.
 

Tigerace117

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i am not surprised that YOU support Muscovite barbaric hordes ,

View attachment 67291694
so typical for all old Marxists on Moscow´s payroll

I’m not surprised you continue to peddle the same old garbage.

You not being able to handle the real world doesn’t change it.
 

Litwin

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TypicalRussian

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Tigerace117

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jpn

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my question, is simple will Putin attack Belarus, and what his buddy D Trump is gonna do in case of the new Putin´s aggression ?

I'm guessing Putin is doing everything he can--and that's a lot--to keep Belarus in the Russian orbit. I bet there are hoards of Russians infiltrated into the streets with the full support of Lukashenko.

I feel for the people protesting in the streets, but I'm sure that there is also a lot of citizens who support Lukashenko and want to remain in the Russian orbit rather than looking to the west.

I don't think this protest will be successful, alas.
 

TomFitz

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my question, is simple will Putin attack Belarus, and what his buddy D Trump is gonna do in case of the new Putin´s aggression ?

"Putin has a choice: Does he repeat his 2014 maneuver — letting Lukashenko flee while gobbling up Belarus, risking a backlash from the West — or does he allow the situation to play out and modulate his interference? The fate of Belarus depends on what he decides.

Putin is in a strange spot, with protests on at least two sides: To the west, the people of Belarus — a former Soviet republic ...— have taken to the streets. The protests have spread, from the country’s intelligentsia to its miners, public transportation workers and even soldiers and police, who’ve begun balking at their role in keeping fellow Belarusians at bay. To the east, Khabarovsk — a major city near Russia’s Pacific coast and seven time zones from Moscow — has been in revolt for weeks after Putin removed a popularly elected governor and replaced him with a hand-selected loyalist.
Y_Dg-cjU-QN_C_hgrupJVfD5xqbID76XljDGtpwnyQ_4ONjhOozu3R2LAYB02PcTGdY91LRPkVr13AYZ11Q0cl-2ZCoIm6f5f7yqXTUs3ubqYuAJP-_1qDezPENOofA9BEeMCr2hy896glw

If he hasn’t made it abundantly clear by now, Putin hates protests. Ever since he was a KGB officer based in Dresden, in East Germany, and watched as protests eroded the Soviet empire, he has viewed popular protests as harbingers of instability, violence and, worse, the collapse of the state. It was the reason that, in 2005, Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe.” Two years ago, he reprised the sentiment, saying he would undo the dismantling of the U.S.S.R. if he could."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/15/putin-lukashenko-belarus-russia/

Putin doesn’t have a thing to worry about with this Administration.
 

Litwin

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I'm guessing Putin is doing everything he can--and that's a lot--to keep Belarus in the Russian orbit. I bet there are hoards of Russians infiltrated into the streets with the full support of Lukashenko.

I feel for the people protesting in the streets, but I'm sure that there is also a lot of citizens who support Lukashenko and want to remain in the Russian orbit rather than looking to the west.

I don't think this protest will be successful, alas.

well. old czar Putin has to think twice after his failed adventure in Ukraine
20200816-3-e6gev.jpg
 

jpn

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well. old czar Putin has to think twice after his failed adventure in Ukraine

Yes, Ukraine didn't turn out as he liked, but with the assistance of Russian sympathizers in eastern Ukraine he seized a sizeable portion of it.
 

Litwin

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Yes, Ukraine didn't turn out as he liked, but with the assistance of Russian sympathizers in eastern Ukraine he seized a sizeable portion of it.

less than 5%:
11-09_eng.jpg


but Kremlin´s plan was

55644423dd08959d1a8b456d


with other words, Moscow has field completely in Ukraine
 

uptower

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my question, is simple will Putin attack Belarus, and what his buddy D Trump is gonna do in case of the new Putin´s aggression ?

"Putin has a choice: Does he repeat his 2014 maneuver — letting Lukashenko flee while gobbling up Belarus, risking a backlash from the West — or does he allow the situation to play out and modulate his interference? The fate of Belarus depends on what he decides.

Putin is in a strange spot, with protests on at least two sides: To the west, the people of Belarus — a former Soviet republic ...— have taken to the streets. The protests have spread, from the country’s intelligentsia to its miners, public transportation workers and even soldiers and police, who’ve begun balking at their role in keeping fellow Belarusians at bay. To the east, Khabarovsk — a major city near Russia’s Pacific coast and seven time zones from Moscow — has been in revolt for weeks after Putin removed a popularly elected governor and replaced him with a hand-selected loyalist.
Y_Dg-cjU-QN_C_hgrupJVfD5xqbID76XljDGtpwnyQ_4ONjhOozu3R2LAYB02PcTGdY91LRPkVr13AYZ11Q0cl-2ZCoIm6f5f7yqXTUs3ubqYuAJP-_1qDezPENOofA9BEeMCr2hy896glw

If he hasn’t made it abundantly clear by now, Putin hates protests. Ever since he was a KGB officer based in Dresden, in East Germany, and watched as protests eroded the Soviet empire, he has viewed popular protests as harbingers of instability, violence and, worse, the collapse of the state. It was the reason that, in 2005, Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe.” Two years ago, he reprised the sentiment, saying he would undo the dismantling of the U.S.S.R. if he could."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/15/putin-lukashenko-belarus-russia/

This is my prediction, without deep knowledge of the belarus crisis or Putin's relationship with Lukashenko; but rather from years of watching the way Putin normally operates and indeed looking and broad history the way Russia has acted as regional power/empire over the centuries, regardless of its leadership:

Belarus is in trouble.

A scenario that seems likely to me, is Lukashenko is deposed in a popular revolution which either descends into fighting and chaos with the next military-backed strongman trying to step into Lukashenko's boots, or a popular democratic movement attempting to establish itself.

Either way, Russia sends its forces in to 'restore order' before things are decided. There's very little shooting and the country capitulates: Putin installs a slightly less brutal strongman who is a client of Russia (perhaps the aforementioned 'next guy') and gives Lukashenko a nice comfy dacha on the Black Sea instead.

Newspapers are shut down, activists arrested, opposition leaders leave and it's back to business as usual, not a democracy.
 
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uptower

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This is my prediction, without deep knowledge of the belarus crisis or Putin's relationship with Lukashenko; but rather from years of watching the way Putin normally operates and indeed looking and broad history the way Russia has acted as regional power/empire over the centuries, regardless of its leadership:

Belarus is in trouble.

A scenario that seems likely to me, is Lukashenko is deposed in a popular revolution which either descends into fighting and chaos with the next military-backed strongman trying to step into Lukashenko's boots, or a popular democratic movement attempting to establish itself.

Either way, Russia sends its forces in to 'restore order' before things are decided. There's very little shooting and the country capitulates: Putin installs a slightly less brutal strongman who is a client of Russia (perhaps the aforementioned 'next guy') and gives Lukashenko a nice comfy dacha on the Black Sea instead.

Newspapers are shut down, activists arrested, opposition leaders leave and it's back to business as usual, not a democracy.

Adding to my earlier part because I missed what trump might do about it: not much. And not just because he's friendly with Putin or he doesn't care what happens to other countries - both of which are true.

But also because America hasn't been able to stand up to Putin in his back yard. Bush allowed him to invade Georgia; Obama allowed Ukraine. There's a point where Putin can go too far, but he just doesn't want Poland or Germany - he just wants 'greater Russia' back. And it's just too big of a headache to stop him getting what he wants to that extent.
 
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