Why Turkey will never join EU?

[PeteEU]

Are all developing nations not marred with problems? I'd say Bulgaria has much less potential than Turkey in the long term, strategic energy advantages aside. The government of Bulgaria is ruling a transitional market economy, and the state of affairs there hardly benefit the EU in any measurable way.

I have always said that Bulgaria and Romania were allowed into the EU too early. But due to geopolitical forces it was seen as a necessity for these two countries plus Poland and the Baltic nations to gain entry. But Bulgaria does not have social economic problems of Turkey. Bulgaria does not have a massive young population, and like it or not it is a problem for Turkey and anyone else in the situation. Take the Palestinians.. something like 70% of their population is under 30... this will become a huge problem one day (more than it is already)

I'd say Turkey has a lot less problems than the likes of Greece and other Balkan countries who we're rushed into the union.

I disagree. They have about the same amount of problems but with a few extra added on for the Turks because of the religious angle and massive population skew.

There is no more a conflict of right and left in Greece than there is a conflict of right and left in Turkey. Hell, id rather be fighting the likes of religious zealots than Greek communist zealots.

Well that is were I differ from you. I would rather have a discussion and fight with a communist which at least bases his or her political ideology in reality some what, than a bunch of wackos that base their whole life on a 1500+ year old book that is vague and open to interpretation big time. There is no reasoning with religious morons, pure and simple, history and recent events has shown this over and over again.

The purpose of the EU is to embark on a road of market integration and eventually a system which gives Europe a unified stance on international affairs; a federal European republic.

I disagree. You are mixing a few things together here. Europe has had a unified stance on international affairs long before the EU existed, back in the days when it was called the EEC. Now it might not have been on everything but when European nations in the community agreed on a policy then they used their combined power plus the national power to deal with those affairs. As for market integration, that is the whole point of the EEC and EU now days. As for a federal European republic.. not in my lifetime or yours. There are too many issues that need to be sorted before it is even remotely possible. For one the expansion to the Eastern European nations has to be stabilized first and that will take many more years thanks to the US economic crisis that has spread to the rest of the world.

This might not be official procedure; "Van Rompuy" might not have declared this, but this is the direction in which we are headed.

You mean the EU "president"? What does he have to do with anything.. he is a glorified office manager that cant set policy lol.

Therefore with the integration of markets comes the integration of cultural barriers in a way which best suits European interests.

Yes and this takes time. We have not even had 2 decades of the common market for god sake. We are still dealing with age old barriers that prevent the freedom of movement of labour and goods across the EU. We still dont have a common market in certain industries and even those industries that have been liberalised, certain countries are still clinging to old monopolistic tendencies that hurt competition and the free market. It is a work in progress.

We will not create a union for the purpose of making a strong Europe without a geographical region which will allow us to exert stability and influence in a way which will also secure our energy security. Russia is clearly not a reliable partner. I dont ever remember the Ceyhan Oil Pipeline giving us headaches and the same will be true for North Stream.

Hmm okay what do you want to talk about.. energy independence and security or European integration? They are two different things. But Russia is reliable, just sucks that the gas has to go through an unreliable partner in the Ukraine. As for the oil and gas from Turkey.. that will only flow if Iraq stays together and that is still a big if. Also if Syria and Israel go at it again, then god only knows what will happen to the oil pipelines.

An unstable Middle East has caused instabilities in Europe; illegal immigration, Asylum seekers, flow of drugs and huge trafficking through Turkey and Greece. If we are going to grab Europe, might as well do it by the balls.

I agree fully, but to deal with an unstable Middle East we would need to deal with Israel and the religious fanatics and as it stands now both are setting the agenda and not the sane people of the world. There will be no peace in the middle east as long as the agenda is written by fanatics on both sides.. and that is the sad truth.

 

[MetalGear]

unlikely; Turkey in recent years has become more nationalistic and belligerent. Currently forces in Turkey's government are pursuing mutually exclusive goals; the Secularists, who are strongest in the military, are attempting to pull Turkey in an EU-style direction, and the governing party (with some strong support from the people) want to reestabih Turkey in its 'rightful' role as leader of the Muslim world.

How are they becoming more nationalist?
The most anti-nationalist leftist party is running the country with a full majority and a second term! The Turkish military has also become highly unpopular - a nationalist establishment - amongst Turks.

 

[MetalGear]

I have always said that Bulgaria and Romania were allowed into the EU too early. But due to geopolitical forces it was seen as a necessity for these two countries plus Poland and the Baltic nations to gain entry. But Bulgaria does not have social economic problems of Turkey. Bulgaria does not have a massive young population, and like it or not it is a problem for Turkey and anyone else in the situation. Take the Palestinians.. something like 70% of their population is under 30... this will become a huge problem one day (more than it is already)

Not true. Firstly, a young population is fantastic for output potential.

Lastly, your evaluation is based on old statistics. Everybody knows that is no longer the case:

Turkey

I disagree. They have about the same amount of problems but with a few extra added on for the Turks because of the religious angle and massive population skew.

Economy wise.

Well that is were I differ from you. I would rather have a discussion and fight with a communist which at least bases his or her political ideology in reality some what, than a bunch of wackos that base their whole life on a 1500+ year old book that is vague and open to interpretation big time. There is no reasoning with religious morons, pure and simple, history and recent events has shown this over and over again.

Have you seen the Maosists in India? The communists in Cyprus? What makes there terrorist attacks in both india and athens ration and worth bargaining with? There no better imo, but again, its a matter of opinion.

I disagree. You are mixing a few things together here. Europe has had a unified stance on international affairs long before the EU existed, back in the days when it was called the EEC. Now it might not have been on everything but when European nations in the community agreed on a policy then they used their combined power plus the national power to deal with those affairs. As for market integration, that is the whole point of the EEC and EU now days. As for a federal European republic.. not in my lifetime or yours. There are too many issues that need to be sorted before it is even remotely possible. For one the expansion to the Eastern European nations has to be stabilized first and that will take many more years thanks to the US economic crisis that has spread to the rest of the world.

Well its more of a personal dream than a reality, i completely admit that, but i know im not the only person - especially in Brussels - who would like to see that in the next 25 years.

You mean the EU "president"? What does he have to do with anything.. he is a glorified office manager that cant set policy lol.

I know its why i put "van rompuy". His just a figurehead but the puppet speaks the words of its master.

Hmm okay what do you want to talk about.. energy independence and security or European integration? They are two different things. But Russia is reliable, just sucks that the gas has to go through an unreliable partner in the Ukraine. As for the oil and gas from Turkey.. that will only flow if Iraq stays together and that is still a big if. Also if Syria and Israel go at it again, then god only knows what will happen to the oil pipelines.

Thats an unfair conclusion. What you say of Ukraine is true, but if im not mistaken, the Ceyhan pipline runs from Azerbaijan, and North Stream is a European collaboration. South Stream will also pump energy into Europe, will use our side of the black sea, and is coming directly from Russia.

I agree fully, but to deal with an unstable Middle East we would need to deal with Israel and the religious fanatics and as it stands now both are setting the agenda and not the sane people of the world. There will be no peace in the middle east as long as the agenda is written by fanatics on both sides.. and that is the sad truth.

That is very true. Do you hold the belief that both Arabs and Israeli's are obstacles to peace in the ME?

 

[jujuman13]

Actually it took only a few years for (West) Germany to change from a nationalist, racist and dictatorial regime to a liberal democracy

It sure did, about 12 years and that ended with their Leader offing himself in a bunker, after which they (apparently) became a Freedom loving Liberal leaning Western Democracy.

 

[jujuman13]

I thought relations between Greece and Turkey had improved recently?

Keep thinking your thoughts.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Same reason the Poles have left in hordes i suppose! But what doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever is.....why the hell do Turks go to Bulgaria for work? Its a transition economy, wages are no better there, everything is cheap as chips and i hear work opportunities are no better, but i could be wrong.

,a
I would expect that many Bulgarian emloyers would perfer to hire immigrants at the same or slightly less pay then Bulgarians for lower skilled work as the immigrants would typically put up with harsher conditions then most natives would. Given the relatively high youth unemployment rate in Turkey and lower social welfare programs in Turkey going to a foriegn country for poor paying jobs makes sense

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

unlikely; Turkey in recent years has become more nationalistic and belligerent. Currently forces in Turkey's government are pursuing mutually exclusive goals; the Secularists, who are strongest in the military, are attempting to pull Turkey in an EU-style direction, and the governing party (with some strong support from the people) want to reestabih Turkey in its 'rightful' role as leader of the Muslim world.

How are they becoming more nationalist?
The most anti-nationalist leftist party is running the country with a full majority and a second term! The Turkish military has also become highly unpopular - a nationalist establishment - amongst Turks.

Metalgear is correct the current Turkish government is by far less nationalistic (nationalistic meaning ethnic and cultural Turkish at the expense of ethnic and cultural minorities) then past Turkish governments. It has in fact purged the military of the more ultra nationalistic generals, who from many accounts were plotting coups vs the democratically elected government. Which is perhaps the only reason the Turkish government was able to take the stand on a few issues that it has recently.

Overall the current turkish government led by the AKP has been the best one for ethnic minorities like the Kurds. The burnt earth policies of past turkish governments towards the Kurds and the PKK have been abandoned and Turkey now focus's on the PKK rather then punishing the Kurds

 

[ferrugem]

The main reason why Turkey will not join the UN because non of the countries are so enthusiastic to accept 80+ mil. islamists, including the fact that the turks never recognize the Armenian genocise.

 

[MetalGear]

The main reason why Turkey will not join the UN because non of the countries are so enthusiastic to accept 80+ mil. islamists, including the fact that the turks never recognize the Armenian genocise.

Islamism (Islam+ism; Arabic: إسلام سياسي) is a set of ideologies holding that Islam is not only a religion but also a political system; that modern Muslims must return to their roots of their religion, and unite politically.

Definition of Islamism/Islamist as you called the population. You got Turkey all wrong mate.

 

[ferrugem]

Islamism (Islam+ism; Arabic: إسلام سياسي) is a set of ideologies holding that Islam is not only a religion but also a political system; that modern Muslims must return to their roots of their religion, and unite politically.

Definition of Islamism/Islamist as you called the population. You got Turkey all wrong mate.

well.. i live in a place where i know very well the Islamic culture, can you not exhort me? and i can bring you stuff too from the Wikipedia.
The things is, no european government wants an Islamic country in the UN.

 

[MetalGear]

well.. i live in a place where i know very well the Islamic culture, you can not to exhort me and i can bring you stuff too from the Wikipedia.
The things is, no european government wants an Islamic country in the UN.

And i am a Turk, so i probably surpass you in the Muslim knowledge category. The argument still stands. Turkey is not an Islamic country, its a secular kemalist one.

 

[ferrugem]

And i am a Turk, so i probably surpass you in the Muslim knowledge category. The argument still stands. Turkey is not an Islamic country, its a secular kemalist one.

If you read lots of Wikipedia so maybe.. thee fact remains that we learn about the Islamic culture and it's facts from school.
Remamber you live in a non conflict area.. and probobly havent heard the news on the last several years.

 

[PeteEU]

Not true. Firstly, a young population is fantastic for output potential.

Depends on the education level and the economic level of the country. For countries like Turkey, a large youth population is a problem since there is not enough jobs to go around. And there wont be enough jobs because of corruption and political instability and lack of free markets. Turkey might be big, but it is not big enough to do an India.

Lastly, your evaluation is based on old statistics. Everybody knows that is no longer the case:

Turkey

I dont see how this disproves anything I have stated. In fact I have stated earlier that the present Turkish population growth is relative very low compared to a few decades ago. But the problem is still there, a large "bump" in the population at one point. It can as you have stated be a blessing but also a curse if the economic, political and social aspects are not in place. Look at the west's baby boom and the problems it is causing now. And the west had an education, social and economic standard far far higher than that of Turkey has today when the baby boomers came to the job market.

Economy wise.

Greece has over double the GDP per capita of Turkey... Bulgaria and Romania are only slightly behind Turkey in the front. I use GDP per capita because it is the only way to compare countries. Economy wise there is not that big a difference between most Balkan countries and Turkey with the exception of Greece who is miles ahead GDP wise per capita. Now we all know Greece is having issues with its public debt, but that comes from corruption in the public sector and that is not much difference when it comes to Turkey. Turkey has 50% debt vs GDP as it stands now and it is growing (and that is if we believe the Turkish statistics). The leap Turkey needs to do to get up next to Greece economy wise is huge and it has many of the same structural problems as Greece. Now unlike Greece, Turkey has a huge growth potential, I do not deny that, but so do many other places around the world and they still do not grow as one would expect.. because of political instability, and social and economic issues. Look at Nigeria. Huge natural resources, massive population and population growth and low wages.. it should be a growth paradise, but it aint. Why? Political instability, religious tensions and massive corruption.

Have you seen the Maosists in India? The communists in Cyprus? What makes there terrorist attacks in both india and athens ration and worth bargaining with? There no better imo, but again, its a matter of opinion.

Did not say they were better. I said that they are easier to deal with than brainwashed religious zealots that believe their death will take them to paradise. At least fanatical maosists are fearful (relatively speaking) of death.. religious nutjobs are not. Have you ever tried to have a conversation with a religious nutjob? I have, both Muslim and Christian and they are no different and they scare the hell out of me.

Thats an unfair conclusion. What you say of Ukraine is true, but if im not mistaken, the Ceyhan pipline runs from Azerbaijan, and North Stream is a European collaboration. South Stream will also pump energy into Europe, will use our side of the black sea, and is coming directly from Russia.

Azerbaijan is a powder cake waiting to explode putting the pipeline at risk. Point is on a risk scale, Russia is the safe bet as it stands now.. but it is always good to have options. Then again, Europe is going more and more away from fossil fuels and to alternative energy so our dependence will go down and down over time.

That is very true. Do you hold the belief that both Arabs and Israeli's are obstacles to peace in the ME?

Very much so. However you know how it goes.. be critical of Israel and you are an anti-semite and be critical of the Arabs and you are a Zionist sympathiser.

 

[PeteEU]

well.. i live in a place where i know very well the Islamic culture, can you not exhort me? and i can bring you stuff too from the Wikipedia.
The things is, no european government wants an Islamic country in the UN.

Turkey is a founding member of the UN.

 

[PeteEU]

If you read lots of Wikipedia so maybe.. thee fact remains that we learn about the Islamic culture and it's facts from school.
Remamber you live in a non conflict area.. and probobly havent heard the news on the last several years.

Hog wash. He is 100% correct that Turkey is secular country. You are the one that has not read a history book and need your school money back.

Now saying that, Turkey might be at this time a secular country and I hope to god it continues to be that, but there are forces moving it towards being a non secular country and they are in government now. But to do that they need to change the Turkish constitution and good luck on that.

 

[ferrugem]

It's secularity is fragile, and there is no 100% secular Islamic state, as long as the Islamic beliefe is radical, there is no suck thing as thing religion-secular balance, as the religion always takes first.
Turkey passed the first pole to join the UN, they are only a temporarly member of it.

 

[MetalGear]

If you read lots of Wikipedia so maybe.. thee fact remains that we learn about the Islamic culture and it's facts from school.
Remamber you live in a non conflict area.. and probobly havent heard the news on the last several years.

Im British Army Personnel mate!
A secular country is not an islamic one!

 

[MetalGear]

It's secularity is fragile, and there is no 100% secular Islamic state, as long as the Islamic beliefe is radical, there is no suck thing as thing religion-secular balance, as the religion always takes first.
Turkey passed the first pole to join the UN, they are only a temporarly member of it.

Is it? Its managed to keep it strong for 100 years. Nobody will thwart the military, no chance of it. Its a permanent secular force and it has served the Turkish republic well. No western country is 100% secular, but thats life. They are a temporary member of the UN security council, NOT the UN.

 

[MetalGear]

Hog wash. He is 100% correct that Turkey is secular country. You are the one that has not read a history book and need your school money back.

Now saying that, Turkey might be at this time a secular country and I hope to god it continues to be that, but there are forces moving it towards being a non secular country and they are in government now. But to do that they need to change the Turkish constitution and good luck on that.

Judiciary will kick ass no doubt.

 

[ferrugem]

Im British Army Personnel mate!
A secular country is not an islamic one!

So? i served the IDF for quit a long time, ended last month.
There is no such thing as a totally secular state with an Islamic culture.. it's beliefe prevets it to be like one, all muslims have a very strong beliefe.

 

[MetalGear]

So? i served the IDF for quit a long time, ended last month.
There is no such thing as a totally secular state with an Islamic culture.. it's beliefe prevets it to be like one, all muslims have a very strong beliefe.

Is the IDF in Iraq? No. Hardly in the position to dictate to me the tendencies of Muslims. Working behind a Gaza wall wont give you a sufficient enough perspective either. Again, name me a 100% secular country. Turkey is on the list along with the entire west and every other secular Democracy which doesn't have a 100% secular society. Actually that shows strength; the diversification of political thought is healthy for any Democratic nation.

 

[ferrugem]

Is the IDF in Iraq? No. Hardly in the position to dictate to me the tendencies of Muslims. Working behind a Gaza wall wont give you a sufficient enough perspective either. Again, name me a 100% secular country. Turkey is on the list along with the entire west and every other secular Democracy which doesn't have a 100% secular society. Actually that shows strength; the diversification of political thought is healthy for any Democratic nation.

Living on the other side of the glob either, we have enough experiance here with the Islam more then you and aspecialy more than your country have in Iraq.
And lat's say that no other western PMs are declaring on leading literally themselves with a military convoy through a military blockade.. as the turkish declared. that's the tip of an iceberg of Islamic regime.

 

[MetalGear]

Living on the other side of the glob either, we have enough experiance here with the Islam more then you and aspecialy more than your country have in Iraq.

Clearly not enough to realize that Turkey is a secular republic and that our state is a living example of the possibilities of Islam living beside Democracy. However, your lack of historical knowledge only goes to prove my claims. As i said, all you know of the Palestinians are what you see over the wall or what you see during a couple of days of offensives. NATO works with Muslim countries, rebuilds them, communicated with them. The IDF is limited in these fields of communication. Thats why, i have to disagree with you.

And lat's say that no other western PMs are declaring on going with a military convoy through a military blockade.. as the turkish declared. that's the tip of an iceberg of Islamic regime.

It was from a non-government organization. :roll:
Wrong again.
Conveniently forget the fantastic relations we had under Kemalist rule.

Actually, if the AKP is such an "islamic regime", why did they offer an apology after a minister claimed homosexuality was a disease? How comes there where protests in the streets and gay marches in Istanbul which where completely non-violent and uninterrupted with? That crap would never happen in Moscow! But Turkey is an Islamic regime? Pah! I've fought with too many anti-Turks in my time to know your wrong, give it up.

 

[ferrugem]

It was from a non-government organization. :roll:
Wrong again.

Well.. if you consider Erdogan as non-government body...