Who takes Texas and who takes Florida?

[upsideguy]

I agree

But Penn. , Wis and Mich will determine this election

Wis and Michigan are not really in play. Penn maybe. Texas is more in play than Michigan.

I will be pleasantly surprised if Biden gets Texas, but not shocked. Texas is having record turnout. The core demographics of Texas actually now favor the dems, but they just not have had the turnout. How will the record turnout translate?

I think there is a chance Trump takes Penn and takes Florida, but there is an equal to greater chance the Biden takes Georgia, Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina. I think Biden wins this thing with 320+ EV.

 

[Jay59]

Thoughts on who wins Texas and who wins Florida?

Trump, obviously. Trump will win any state that is currently within the margin of error and possibly a few which are not.

So, according to you Blacks are on a plantation and doing so willingly?

That's you projecting something that was not said.

What he said...though I’m still on the fence on Ohio. I think it leans Trump but I wouldn’t be floored if it’s blue either.

Trump will win any state within the margin of error. State level polling is not as good or as common as national polls. Iowa is an exception, since the gold standard of pollsters lives there.

16 years of Clinton and Obama weren't bad at all. Name one decent Republican president in the last 4 years.

Trump has been good to excellent, so there are no Republican Presidents who were merely decent.

Trump would be very lucky to get 10% of the black vote in PA. Young African Americans approve of Trump more than older African Americans, but young African Americans (actually, all young people) vote at a much lower rate than older African Americans who have very little love for Trump. You think wrong about what I believe. My desires/wants do not supersede what I believe. If all trusted sources indicate that 31% of all African Americans in PA will vote for Trump, I’d be inclined to accept that scenario regardless of my personal wants.

You keep saying this in the face of evidence that Trump will get twice that many. Don't you believe in math and science?

In Texas?

Texas has already exceeded the 2016 turnout and early voting still has a day to go.

Wis and Michigan are not really in play. Penn maybe. Texas is more in play than Michigan. I think there is a chance Trump takes Penn and takes Florida, but there is an equal to greater chance the Biden takes Georgia, Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina. I think Biden wins this thing with 320+ EV.

Pennsylvania is the Democrat's Florida. All Biden paths require it.

What is critical is the down ballot races. In 2016 Trump had a very long tail. Literally every Senator won in states Trump won, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

 

[911Sparky]

Some big name Dems aren't so sure about that Florida thing.

I'm not sure of Florida, but if Biden gets Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where he currently holds comfortable leads, he wins. The only reason I would like to see Biden win Florida is that we would probably know the winner on election night.

 

[upsideguy]

Trump, obviously. Trump will win any state that is currently within the margin of error and possibly a few which are not.


That's you projecting something that was not said.


Trump will win any state within the margin of error


Trump has been good to excellent, so there are no Republican Presidents who were merely decent.


You keep saying this in the face of evidence that Trump will get twice that many. Don't you believe in math and science?

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Texas has already exceeded the 2016 turnout and early voting still has a day to go.


Pennsylvania is the Democrat's Florida. All Biden paths require it.

What is critical is the down ballot races. In 2016 Trump had a very long tail. Literally every Senator won in states Trump won, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

Biden has multiple paths to victory without PA. He wins Arizona and NE CD he wins it OR any of the other swing states other than Iowa. Trump has no path without Florida.

 

[911Sparky]

Trump, obviously. Trump will win any state that is currently within the margin of error and possibly a few which are not.


That's you projecting something that was not said.


Trump will win any state within the margin of error. State level polling is not as good or as common as national polls. Iowa is an exception, since the gold standard of pollsters lives there.


Trump has been good to excellent, so there are no Republican Presidents who were merely decent.


You keep saying this in the face of evidence that Trump will get twice that many. Don't you believe in math and science?


Texas has already exceeded the 2016 turnout and early voting still has a day to go.


Pennsylvania is the Democrat's Florida. All Biden paths require it.

What is critical is the down ballot races. In 2016 Trump had a very long tail. Literally every Senator won in states Trump won, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

You might want to rethink that last sentence, both of Michigan's senators are democrats.

 

[Jay59]

I'm not sure of Florida, but if Biden gets Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where he currently holds comfortable leads, he wins. The only reason I would like to see Biden win Florida is that we would probably know the winner on election night.

Don't forget Minnesota. In 2016, Wisconsin was the tipping state, ie the one that gave him the 270th EV. Minnesota's 10 EV works just as well.

Biden has multiple paths to victory without PA. He wins Arizona and NE CD he wins it OR any of the other swing states other than Iowa. Trump has no path without Florida.

OK I see the line, though it's a reach. Nevada, Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire were all Hillary states closer than Arizona.

In similar fashion, Trump did not need Florida in 2016. Wisconsin put him over and still would have with Michigan and Pennsylvania instead of Florida.

You might want to rethink that last sentence, both of Michigan's senators are democrats.

They did not have a race in 2016. You should check details like that.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

So, according to you Blacks are on a plantation and doing so willingly?

According to that poster, Joe Biden never got any support from black voters and Donald Trump always gained support from black voters.

 

[Casper]

That's you projecting something that was not said.

Really?
" If Biden wins it'll go back to the same old same old and people of color will find themselves back on the same old plantation they've been on for over a hundred years. "

 

[Airyaman]

If it's up to the Federal Judiciary, Trump will win TX.

 

[iguanaman]

Trump has substantially more black and Hispanic approval and Republicans are posting good early voting returns. I’ll mark Trump in Florida. If Trumps black support actually has increased by only half as much as Rasmussen showed it is near impossible for him to lose PA

LOL You are putting all your marbles on the black vote? That is hilarious.

 

[Casper]

According to that poster, Joe Biden never got any support from black voters and Donald Trump always gained support from black voters.

Well some people see things that are not there, like trumps sterling history of success.

 

[iguanaman]

If it's up to the Federal Judiciary, Trump will win TX.

It has already started. Trump is determined to "get rid of the ballots" and declare victory by sheer will. That will not stand.

Trump on peaceful transition if he loses: 'Get rid of the ballots' and 'there won't be a transfer'

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...on-if-he-loses-get-rid-ballots-there-n1240896

 

[BlueTex]

Texas has already exceeded the 2016 turnout and early voting still has a day to go.

Early voting in Texas ended yesterday.... Only one day left to vote, Nov 3rd.

 

[joko104]

Thoughts on who wins Texas and who wins Florida?

It is irrelevant. Real voters will not be making the decision.

 

[BlueTex]

It is irrelevant. Real voters will not be making the decision.

Versus the imaginary Trump voters you think are out there in hiding just waiting for Tuesday?

 

[ttwtt78640]

You being wrong. means You want those working class deplorables put back in their drug and porn and unemployment box until they kIll themselves like Obama did. A really odd thing to be wish to be wrong about.

it’s so wierd you being the former Bernie guy now sides with the super wealthy ruling class.

Biden is (or soon will be) adopting many of the positions of that Bernie guy. Of course, none of that matters if Trump wins.

 

[Clicker III]

I never understood why Pennsylvania is so close. Joe Biden was born there and everyone knows Donald Trump was widely expected to lose it in 2016.

First, I am 80 yrs old. I was born in Ohio. I havn't lived there for 60 yrs. I'd be surprised if anyone is still there who knew me. I doubt anyone in Pennsy "knows" Joe Biden either. Democrats are notorious carpetbaggers. When they see a person that has potential but can't win in their home state the party moves them to a Dem sure thing state. Hillary Clinton and BarryO are the most recent examples.
Second. The key to Pennsylvania is the unions. They've had a great 2-3 years with Trump and don't want the uncertainty of the radical left. Support for Biden among the unions is waning. African Americans and Hispanics are becoming "woke" but it's not to the woke that the lefties want. They too have had good times and are now faced with the specter of losing the economic gains they've made.

 

[Clicker III]

I agree

But Penn. , Wis and Mich will determine this election

The appearance is that the party that takes Fla will win the election. If Trump takes both he'll have an easier time on election night.

 

[vesper]

Democratic run cities across the country are boarding up prior to the election. If they thought Biden was a shoo-in, what are they worried about? We are not seeing any boarding up in Republican run cities.

I think Trump is winning FL. I have listened to pollsters and they say TX was never in play. My personal opinion is Biden may be in trouble in multiple states with Democratic governors whose draconian shutdowns is not sitting well with their citizens as they are fed up while they keep hearing Trump calling for these governors to open up.

I also think the polling that shows Trump gaining ground with support among Blacks and Hispanics to be very real.
If you are looking at RCP averages at this point, you are fooling yourself.

There truly is such a thing as the shy Trump voter and today even more so than 2020. We have seen people who work or live in Democratic areas be fired over showing support for Trump. Professors, teachers, principles, and those working in the private sector. We have seen story after story where Trump supporters with signs on the lawn receive threatening letters over their support for Trump.

Tuesday we will have a better grasp on things. PA, WI, MI, MN, NV are definitely in play.

 

[Jay59]

Versus the imaginary Trump voters you think are out there in hiding just waiting for Tuesday?

They were not imaginary in 2016.

There are a lot of theories why Trump consistently polls below his vote results. Shy Trump support is one of them. Another is that he attracts people that were not politically involved, hence not on pollster's radar.

The appearance is that the party that takes Fla will win the election. If Trump takes both he'll have an easier time on election night.

That is most likely not the case. The two must have states are Florida and Pennsylvania, but there are several potentially closer states.

Early voting in Texas ended yesterday.... Only one day left to vote, Nov 3rd.

Correct. Today is the one early voting day not yet in the books.

 

[BlueTex]

They were not imaginary in 2016.

There are a lot of theories why Trump consistently polls below his vote results. Shy Trump support is one of them. Another is that he attracts people that were not politically involved, hence not on pollster's radar.

Didn't Trump lose the popular vote in 2016?

Correct. Today is the one early voting day not yet in the books.

You can't vote today, tomorrow or Monday in Texas. Early voting is over...

 

[uptower]

More denial by the left. Every time a non leftist has an issue they deny it is even happening and besides they deserve it and are also mentally ill.

Come on this is just effin' stupid. Trump's promises were completely false. he duidn;t do a thing to help those communities get their jobs back and appointed his know-nothing son in law to 'oversee' the opioid epidemic. If everyone's unemployed and on drugs right now it's not Biden's fault next year. Saying that's the problem he'll cause is just post-dating Trump's current failures so you can blame them on future leaders.

 

[The Mark]

I'm going to go out on a limb of indeterminate length and say Biden takes both Texas and Florida.

 

[uptower]

Anyway I predict the elderly will cleanly take Florida and ISIS will hold on to Texas.

 

[trixare4kids]

I wouldn't venture to take a guess. I would love for Trump to win both states.
I think the exit polls on Tuesday will give us a better picture. From what I am reading, Trump voters are by majority going to vote in person on Tuesday, election day.