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Who takes Texas and who takes Florida?

ReubenSherr said:
Trump has Texas.

Florida polling is a bit mixed, but early voting in Miami-Dade County is favoring Republicans, and this is the most liberal area of the state.
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I say Biden takes both Texas and Florida. This will be the big sensation off the election. I am 90% sure.

There are 2 reasons :

  1. Trumps constant claim since he started to believe that he might lose, that post voting would lead to election fraud has wind the voters up. Together with the republican states voter suppression measurements(example, Texas: 11 places for voters in risk groups to drop their vote off has been reduce to one, if you wasn’t going to vote Biden when you got there, you will when you reach the end of the line) It is making people vote in numbers you have never seen before, and they are voting Biden for the simple reason that they do not accept the suppression this time. The republican has taken it to far.
  2. Elderly devoted republicans won’t vote: The Trump rhetoric has put a lot of group pressure on the republican voters to vote on election day, never vote by post and to ignore the danger of Covid19. But I believe that when election day comes they will be just as every other person are: him/herself closest and they just wont go to vote. It will not be worth the risk of dying. The fact that Trump hasn’t visited Texas may reduce this effect.
 
upsideguy said:
Wis and Michigan are not really in play. Penn maybe. Texas is more in play than Michigan.

I will be pleasantly surprised if Biden gets Texas, but not shocked. Texas is having record turnout. The core demographics of Texas actually now favor the dems, but they just not have had the turnout. How will the record turnout translate?

I think there is a chance Trump takes Penn and takes Florida, but there is an equal to greater chance the Biden takes Georgia, Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina. I think Biden wins this thing with 320+ EV.
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Texas is more in play than Michigan.
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How do ya figure?


There was a 800,000 separation between Hillary and Trump in Texas

There was a 10,000 separation between Hillary and Trump in Mich
 
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