Which part of AGW theory do you not accept?

[Deuce]

I do not profess to be an expert by any means, or even well-educated for that matter, in the Earth's orbital patterns. I do, however remember reading a journal article in my Astronomy 101 class as an undergrad (it was a science elective :shrug I do agree that the Earth's average orbital distance from the Sun is predicted to remain relatively constant for at least a billion years or so. however; I also vaguely remember our class discussion on the Milankovitch Theory and the correlation of the three Earth orbital patterns and glaciation/deglaciation. Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't this theory suggest that the Earth indeed "wobbles" in it's orbital patterns and that there are periods when the Earth may be closer to the sun than during a "typical" cycle through said pattern? Didn't Milankovitch attempt to show global climate changes which corresponded to these "irregularities" in orbital pattern or in axial tilt? I'm seriously trying to learn here, no sarcasm intended. Damn, I wish that I could find that original journal article. Anyway I just found this in a limited search and I do realize it comes from an oversimplified summary of Milankovitch's Theory. I go back to my original question: has this theory been disproven as of yet?


Perhaps the suggestion of the earlier poster was that we may be entering a "point" of one of the particular "cycles" in which the Earth is closer to the Sun than during a typical revolution?

Well, that's not at all what he said. In any case the earth's average distance to the sun does not decrease during any portion of the Milankovitch cycle. In fact, the earth will gradually INCREASE it's distance as the sun slowly loses mass and therefore gravitational pull.

What DOES change during the Milankovitch cycles is the axial tilt and eccentricity (primarily) which does affect climate. These cycles are believed to be responsible for the primary cycles of glaciation, as their timing works out almost perfectly and the physics principles are pretty simple. The key point here, however, is just the sheer scale of time involved. These cycles occur over thousands of years, while the climate now has changed significantly on a 100-year-ish scale.

Then the other issue: our current position in that Milankovitch cycle tells us the world should be (very slowly) cooling right now. It's not cooling. Clearly, another force must be at work.

Regarding research funding: on a macro scale the funding might drop if CO2 were exonerated, but the scientist who managed to prove this would win a Nobel Prize because now he's given evidence that helps the third world industrialize without much worry, and his own meal ticket is going to be pretty well handled from that point forward! I mean, think about it, who wouldn't want to go down in history as the guy who finally proved the whole world wrong and revolutionized our understanding of climate?

 

[FederalRepublic]

Regarding research funding: on a macro scale the funding might drop if CO2 were exonerated, but the scientist who managed to prove this would win a Nobel Prize because now he's given evidence that helps the third world industrialize without much worry, and his own meal ticket is going to be pretty well handled from that point forward! I mean, think about it, who wouldn't want to go down in history as the guy who finally proved the whole world wrong and revolutionized our understanding of climate?

Very nice dodge. So then, you do agree that funding for climate research is tied to people with vested interests on both sides, but don't want to be seen as admitting it. I get it.

As for the Nobel Prize, I suspect it's more likely that he would initially be fired for upsetting the apple cart and shunned by all his colleagues who had to find alternative employment, and then (maybe even after he dies) he would go down in history.

 

[Deuce]

Very nice dodge. So then, you do agree that funding for climate research is tied to people with vested interests on both sides, but don't want to be seen as admitting it. I get it.

As for the Nobel Prize, I suspect it's more likely that he would initially be fired for upsetting the apple cart and shunned by all his colleagues who had to find alternative employment, and then (maybe even after he dies) he would go down in history.

Again, all scientists have a "vested interest" in their funding. That's why we have a peer review process. Scientists who write crappy papers and get them rejected aren't going to get continued funding. You started off in this thread trying to sound like a reasonable skeptic who wanted to know more about the science, but now that it's been shown to you, you're (predictably) falling back on unprovable conspiracy theories. I can't read minds, so I can't prove to you that there aren't any biased climatologists, but I can prove to you that their work passes peer review in the world's most respected science journals. If you think the National Academy of Science is biased, you're going to have to show some evidence of that.

 

[FederalRepublic]

Again, all scientists have a "vested interest" in their funding. That's why we have a peer review process. Scientists who write crappy papers and get them rejected aren't going to get continued funding. You started off in this thread trying to sound like a reasonable skeptic who wanted to know more about the science, but now that it's been shown to you, you're (predictably) falling back on unprovable conspiracy theories. I can't read minds, so I can't prove to you that there aren't any biased climatologists, but I can prove to you that their work passes peer review in the world's most respected science journals. If you think the National Academy of Science is biased, you're going to have to show some evidence of that.

I'm not falling back on unprovable conspiracy theories, and I don't believe I'm the one that started down the conspiratorial funding route. You are pretty quick to go there yourself.

 

[Deuce]

I'm not falling back on unprovable conspiracy theories, and I don't believe I'm the one that started down the conspiratorial funding route. You are pretty quick to go there yourself.

Do you have any more scientific points to discuss?

 

[NSR]

ummmm - I agree THIS is a new one! Errrr - don't you think SOMEONE in the Astronomy field would have noticed??

And even if you think that this is all being covered up by a conspiracy then I have to tell you Astronomy is one of those fields where there are a huge number of amateurs who WOULD notice something like this

They get paid by the government to keep their mouth shut.

 

[Deuce]

They get paid by the government to keep their mouth shut.

No man, it's the aliens, man. They erase the memories of every astronomer who figures it out, because the aliens are actually using the earth as a giant kinetic power plant. That slows us down, so the orbit decays. They don't want us to catch on, man, and the government is in on it because the aliens give them stealth technology for their black helicopters. Don't worry, if you keep your lead hat on, you'll be ok. (don't use tin foil! they want you to use tin foil because it amplifies their signals, man!)

I have to go underground now. They're probably tracing this post.

 

[NSR]

No man, it's the aliens, man. They erase the memories of every astronomer who figures it out, because the aliens are actually using the earth as a giant kinetic power plant. That slows us down, so the orbit decays. They don't want us to catch on, man, and the government is in on it because the aliens give them stealth technology for their black helicopters. Don't worry, if you keep your lead hat on, you'll be ok. (don't use tin foil! they want you to use tin foil because it amplifies their signals, man!)

I have to go underground now. They're probably tracing this post.

Are you serious?

 

[repeter]

Are you serious?

Wow...you actually believed that? Okay...no he isn't serious.

 

[NSR]

Wow...you actually believed that? Okay...no he isn't serious.

I would've thought so.

 

[Deuce]

Are you serious?

Were you!?

 

[FederalRepublic]

Do you have any more scientific points to discuss?

Yeah, but I'm too busy at the moment for much research....raping the earth to provide you with fuel for your car so that you can also rape the earth by spewing CO2 out your tailpipe...

It will have to wait until I have more time.

 

[NSR]

Were you!?

Yea the government pays astronomers to keep their mouths shut.

 

[Deuce]

Yea the government pays astronomers to keep their mouths shut.

You're new here, so I'll put it nicely.

There's a conspiracy theory subforum. Go there. Stay there. You'll be happy there.

 

[bowerbird]

Yea the government pays astronomers to keep their mouths shut.

So, that includes all the professional astronomers in Australia and New Zealand and Chile and England and Europe and Canada (ooops forget Canada - it is too cold for stars there) and all those other places around the world? They are ALL being paid by the government to keep quiet? (whose gubermint BTW - yours of mine?)

How about the amateur astronomers? And I ask this with some trepidation - do you really realise how many tens of thousands of amateurs there are in the world? Now I will admit that not all of those are capable of doing in depth orbital analysis but a fair few are - and astoundingly these people who CAN do this are cropping up all the time in amateur societies - so do we have secret government agents out tracking down nerds just in case one of them can work it all out and spill the beans?

(warning if you say "yes" to the above my next suggestion will be to follow Deuce's directions)

 

[NSR]

So, that includes all the professional astronomers in Australia and New Zealand and Chile and England and Europe and Canada (ooops forget Canada - it is too cold for stars there) and all those other places around the world? They are ALL being paid by the government to keep quiet? (whose gubermint BTW - yours of mine?)

How about the amateur astronomers? And I ask this with some trepidation - do you really realise how many tens of thousands of amateurs there are in the world? Now I will admit that not all of those are capable of doing in depth orbital analysis but a fair few are - and astoundingly these people who CAN do this are cropping up all the time in amateur societies - so do we have secret government agents out tracking down nerds just in case one of them can work it all out and spill the beans?

(warning if you say "yes" to the above my next suggestion will be to follow Deuce's directions)

Nope the goverment don't worry about them.

 

[bowerbird]

Nope the goverment don't worry about them.

So how are they "silenced"? Why are they not writing blogs and stirring trouble about the conspiracy?

 

[Deuce]

So how are they "silenced"? Why are they not writing blogs and stirring trouble about the conspiracy?

I think we shouldn't give any more attention to...this.