What is your estimate cost to round u and deport 11 million or more illegals?

[Visbek]

Sort of....

No, not "sort of." The author openly admits he's including the costs of native-born citizens whose parents are non-citizens. I even quoted him for your convenience.

They go on to make the point (you may have not read it), that simply because an economy is larger does not make the people in it wealthier.

I did see it. They "made the point" by idiotically claiming, in a single sentence, with no evidence, that reducing the population of the US by 11 million people -- and GDP by 2% -- would have no effect on the economy. (In contrast, the AIC paper spent 7 pages explaining the economic damage caused by removing those migrants, with extensive citations; the CIS paper, we should note, is an "op ed" that didn't cite a single reference.) It's another reason why that "article" is a piece of s***.

Even on a superficial level, what CIS is saying is abject nonsense. Anyone with even a cursory understanding of economics knows there are fundamentally two ways to grow an economy:
- Increase productivity
- Increase the population

What do you think would happen if the US deported every single resident of Georgia (11 million, 8th largest state btw)? Do you think it would have no effect whatsoever on the economy...?

If we were to suddenly add (for example) all of Northern Mexico to the United States, our GDP would go up, but, our median incomes would go down.

eVeRyb0dY wHo Di$AgrEeS wiF mE iS @ RacISt!

If you do not understand how this describes CIS's attitude to a "T," then you are not paying attention.

they are an advocacy group as much as CIS is....

That does not mean or prove that they are equally biased as CIS, let alone that their respective claims magically "balance out."

Are either estimates likely to accurately reflect reality? Probably not - but one leans off one side of the horse, and the other of t'other, and that's why balancing themselves against each other can help provide reasonable guesstimates.

Wow, brilliant plan. Too bad it's utterly unjustifiable.

This is like asking two different teams "what is the effect of blocking vaccines?" One team is made up of experts in epidemiology, government, health care policy, and economics; the other is made up of conspiracy theorists with zero education and experience in any relevant field. You're not going to get at "the truth" by averaging out their estimates.

 

[TangoNoCash]

They are migrants who falsely claimed asylum. Ive heard estimates that 90% of these asylum claims are being denied. That means ~90% arent here legally.

Congress came up with legislation that would properly fund and expedite that process. Take it from years to months. Republicans said no. Now act surprised pretend something should be done.

 

[cpwill]

doesn't matter the cost

whatever it is - its worth it

It is true that we don't pursue Rule of Law simply because it turns a profit, but as a good in and of itself.

That does not mean this particular effort is worth any cost - merely that it should not be judged solely on whether or not it turns a profit to the public fisc.

 

[ColdHardTruth]

What is your estimate cost to round u and deport 11 million or more illegals?​

Markedly less than the cost of keeping them.

This is nonsensical, baseless bullshit.

 

[ColdHardTruth]

doesn't matter the cost

whatever it is - its worth it

No, it's not.

Groceries will get more expensive as undocumented labor decreases.

YOU will be paying more for EVERYTHING in the produce aisle. As will I. When that happens, blame those who voted for the racist convicted felon.

 

[hecatmoggie]

No, it's not.

we voted in Trump/Senate/House GOP controlled with one of the main issues is southern border/immigration - Kamala even campaigned on it

Groceries will get more expensive as undocumented labor decreases.

you're projecting

for the above to happen, all the workers would be illegals (and deported) and surely you're not saying companies are breaking the laws and having them working ? you'd not advocate that right ?

YOU will be paying more for EVERYTHING in the produce aisle. As will I. When that happens, blame those who voted for the racist convicted felon.

that's fine

did you know there are only 1.5 to 2 million agriculture/crop pickers in the USA ? even if 25% were illegal ... that's be what, maybe 500,000 ?

there are literally 15 million or more illegally here people - they're NOT crop pickers !!

Democrats have lied to you

 

[zincwarrior]

A whole bunch of wealthy, influential people, who are in positions to do Trump and his family good, make big bucks off cheap labour.
A really big bunch of voters who can't vote for Trump anymore want them gone.
You do the math.

Exactly. We will see few trump (pardon the pun) raids on meat factories and such, then victory will be declared.

 

[Ishm]

Ran one estimate here.

Short Version:

Per the left-leaning AIC, the cost of deportation is $315 Billion for a one-year sweep, or $88 Bn a year for a sustained program of ~1 Million a year.

Per the right-leaning CIS, the cost borne to support the illegal alien population is

• $42 Billion a year for SNAP/WIC/EITC
• $68 Billion a year for educating the kids
• $7 Billion a year for medical services
• ... but they pay $25.9 Billion in Federal Income Taxes and FICA taxes

For a net cost of $91.1 Bn a year.

Taking both at face value, a single-year sweep with a cost of $315 Bn would pay for itself in about 3.5 years, and be a net benefit to the public fisc for every year following.

I am doubtful we are going to do that, however.

Always start by checking the easy to check numbers :
- Average cost per child per year for public education is around $15k according to a quick search
- At $68B cost that would mean educating around 4.5 Million illegal migrant children
- So the claim is that of the supposed 11 million illegal migrants to be deported, 4.5 million of them are children at school
- Does that sound correct??????

 

[phoenix2020]

He can't.

Donald isn’t interested in your opinions on what he can or cannot do.

 

[phoenix2020]

No, not "sort of." The author openly admits he's including the costs of native-born citizens whose parents are non-citizens. I even quoted him for your convenience.

Hmm.

I am a native born citizen whose parents are not citizens (green card holders) - am I potentially in scope for this deportation stuff?

 

[zincwarrior]

Fentanoly doesn't exist

Its a new pasta dish.

 

[rickc]

Yes. But is it a population willing to drive hours and days out of their way at their own expense to agricultural zones to pick fruit and vegetables for minimum wage? Doubtful.

Usually it's piecework. You get paid by the box or crate you pick.

Experienced Hispanic pickers are very productive. They actually make good money for very hard work.

I doubt American pickers could even make minimum wage doing piecework. That is if they could even last a day working their azz off under that blazing sun.

 

[Cope]

Donald isn’t interested in your opinions on what he can or cannot do.

It isn't opinion and it won't matter if he asks me or not. He simply cannot.

I will wish him the same I wish to the people wanting to change the 2nd Amendment.

Have fun trying to garner the support for a Constitutional Amendment.

 

[Cope]

Always start by checking the easy to check numbers :
- Average cost per child per year for public education is around $15k according to a quick search
- At $68B cost that would mean educating around 4.5 Million illegal migrant children
- So the claim is that of the supposed 11 million illegal migrants to be deported, 4.5 million of them are children at school
- Does that sound correct??????

You aren't adding the ones that were already here ...All estimates lean to around 10 M

 

[post]

Trump talks about deporting 11 million illegals as if it will be done by his first week in office. Not only is these ridicules, but there are many costs involved. Finding them, arresting them, containing them, in camps, having them shown before a judge, finding a country that will take them and finally the cost of transporting them to that country. It Has been estimated that illegals paid 97 billion dollars in taxes in 2022, but that will probably be at the very low end of the cost of this program. If the number of illegals is 11 million, and that does not include those who are here waiting for an asylum hearing that |Trump also wants to immediately deport, then I estimate the cost at about 165 billion dollars at the low end and as high as 200 billion dollars at the high end. That does not include the 100 billion we will lose in taxes paid by illegals who do not benefit from those taxes. So, what is your estimate?

Recent estimate is $88 billion per million deported.

Trump wants a mass deportation program. How much could it cost?

One report estimates it would cost tens, or hundreds, of billions a year.

abcnews.go.com

November 1, 2024

 

[OrphanSlug]

The last time I looked at this the cost was somewhere in the $10K to $12K per immigrant to deport, and granted that is based on a few conditions that are not apples to apples comparison between how it is handled today vs. what Trump is wanting to do. Say Trump throws more at it to handle it faster using the US military to assist. Say $15k per person to entirely get them out.

The numbers are all over the place but placing the total number of illegal immigrants in the US today is somewhere in the 14 million range give or take.

Using the math, rounding a few things, making some assumptions, and keeping this basic, we land on $210 Billion give or take.

Now that would be net new spending, not a reallocation as technically all other functions of border security would not change and if anything also go up to account for this sort of effort.

 

[post]

Hmm.

I am a native born citizen whose parents are not citizens (green card holders) - am I potentially in scope for this deportation stuff?

 

[phoenix2020]

It isn't opinion and it won't matter if he asks me or not. He simply cannot.

I will wish him the same I wish to the people wanting to change the 2nd Amendment.

Have fun trying to garner the support for a Constitutional Amendment.

Why would a change to the constitution be required?

Does anybody know if birthright citizenship for the child of illegal immigrants has ever been tested by SCOTUS?

I think people need to understand better what the Constitution is and isn’t. It’s a set of rights. However, law can determine which classes of people those rights apply to. It is not clear to me that SCOTUS couldn’t or wouldn’t determine that if the parents of a naturalized birth citizen entered the country illegally, they never submitted to federal authority and the application of our Constitution to them, and therefore the rights enumerated in it do not apply to them.

Furthermore, I have to keep reminding people that the Constitution isn’t an enforcement mechanism. It’s a piece of paper, and is only as powerful as our institutions being willing to enforce it, or stand in the way of those who wish to ignore it. So, we’ve also got to ask, if Stephen Miller wants to deport birthright citizens (and he does) and has a team willing to do it (which he will, with Trump’s backing) who precisely stops them? Congress? Probably not. Our armed forces? Probably not. Matt Gaetz? Probably not. SCOTUS? They provide opinions, they do not enforce law, so probably not. It basically comes down to state law enforcement, as far as I can tell. If a person lives in a deep red state, then I can’t think of precisely which group would stand in front of an ICE officer and say “you’re not taking this citizen.”

I mean, you certainly won’t. Donald has already made it clear that he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any support. So, it’s not like you’re going to abandon him if he deports naturalized birth citizens!

 

[Cope]

"All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws."

As to enforcement, I get your point but it has always been thus. Enforcement of unconstitutional laws happens (ed) all the time, until they don't. They have to be adjudicated and I imagine with how many eye balls are on this and the ACLU, the Democrats will have no shortage of suits about this very issue.

 

[post]

Why would a change to the constitution be required?

Does anybody know if birthright citizenship for the child of illegal immigrants has ever been tested by SCOTUS?

I think people need to understand better what the Constitution is and isn’t. It’s a set of rights. However, law can determine which classes of people those rights apply to. It is not clear to me that SCOTUS couldn’t or wouldn’t determine that if the parents of a naturalized birth citizen entered the country illegally, they never submitted to federal authority and the application of our Constitution to them, and therefore the rights enumerated in it do not apply to them.

Furthermore, I have to keep reminding people that the Constitution isn’t an enforcement mechanism. It’s a piece of paper, and is only as powerful as our institutions being willing to enforce it, or stand in the way of those who wish to ignore it. So, we’ve also got to ask, if Trump wants to deport birthright citizens and has a team willing to do it, who precisely stops them? Congress? Probably not. Our armed forces? Probably not. Matt Gaetz? Probably not. SCOTUS? They provide opinions, they do not enforce law, so probably not. If a person lives in a deep red state, then I can’t think of precisely which group would stand in front of an ICE officer and say “you’re not taking this citizen.”

I mean, you certainly won’t. Donald has already made it clear that he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any support. So, it’s not like you’re going to abandon him if he deports naturalized birth citizens!

Before the Bill of Rights amended the constitution, it was a document defining what authority the federal government would have. If not mentioned, there would be no federal jurisdiction over the power, authority, or offense. Removing JFK’s body violated this, as one example, because at the time there was no federal offense for assassinating the president.

Unless something changes, you have legal protection,

https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/amdt14-S1-1-2/ALDE_00000812/#:~:text=Fourteenth%20Amendment%2C%20Section%201%3A,the%20State%20wherein%20they%20reside

 

[Visbek]

Hmm.

I am a native born citizen whose parents are not citizens (green card holders) - am I potentially in scope for this deportation stuff?

Well, I hate to be blunt, but:

If your skin is not white, then neither MAGA nor the Center for Immigration Studies wants you in the US.

The last mass deportation (Operation Wetback in the 1950s) deported thousands of US citizens of Mexican descent. (It didn't stop migration to the US, by the way.)

There's little indication that the administration has any interest in being cautious or thorough in their deportation. They want to do it as cheaply and quickly as possible. If Operation Wetback 2.0 actually happens, it's inevitable that US citizens will get deported.

In fact, one of Trump's "Day One" campaign promises is to end birthright citizenship via executive order. This would be a blatant violation of the Constitution, but he's going to do it anyway.

If we take his claim that the 14th Amendment has been misinterpreted for over 100 years, then yeah... you might get a knock on your door. It doesn't seem likely, but who knows? These people are not calm and rational; they're blaming non-white foreigners for every evil under the sun. I certainly wouldn't expect an exception for the children of green card holders....

 

[Deuce]

If 11 million illegals were paying into social security and not collecting anything, the system wouldn't be broke.

Have you done the math on this? LMAO.

God you people just make up reality as you go, don't you?

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

If 11 million illegals were paying into social security and not collecting anything, the system wouldn't be broke.

Just how do you think illegal immigrants would collect SS?

 

[Str8shooter]

You're not going to stop Americans from taking *cough* fentanyl by kicking out undocumented immigrants.




So, you think what -- the US should deport 8-10 million people, because... a handful of them commit crimes? Are you for reals?

Louisiana has a population of 4.7 million, and had 663 homicides in 2023. That's the highest homicide rate in the US, far beyond what undocumented migrants commit.

So, why not just deport every single person who lives in Louisiana? The logic is the same, after all -- you're blaming and punishing a group of millions for the actions of a handful of its members.


Get real. You're not going to stop any of that by deporting migrants.

You're the one who needs to "get real." Reference all of the people who have already been killed by illegals who have been allowed to enter our country. The deaths will continue. The rapes will continue. The gangs from these countries will continue to grow.