What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today? (1 Viewer)

[Perotista]

With the shutdown in progress I decided it was time to compare some stats today with the stats of November 2012 when President Obama won a second term.
Party Affiliation
Nov 2012 30% Republican 35% Democratic 36% Independent
Today 22% Republican 31% Democratic 45% Independent

President Obama Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 54% Approval 41% Disapproval
Today 41% Approval 52% Disapproval

Congressional Job Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 17% Approval 78% Disapproval
Today 14% Approval 78% Disapproval

The last stat thanks to Gallup is on independents since both of the major parties have shrunk while independents have gained. It is how Independents viewed President Obama

Nov 2012 51% of independents viewed him favorably and they came through for him on Election day.
Today only 36% of independents now view the president favorably.

So what do all these numbers mean? I think each individual should view them and then let me know what they think. These numbers will mean different things to different people.

 

[douglas]

We need a reworking of the voting system; if we implemented Instant Runoff Voting, or some other ranked voting system, we could stop tactical voting. People should vote for who they want to win, not who they think could win. If independents were a viable option, and "wasted votes" were not an issue, we might get out of this Democrat/Republican cycle of incompetence.

People always blame the other side for why America's failing, but they keep forgetting that both sides have been failing for a century; maybe it's time to stop voting for the "republican side" or the "democrat side", and start voting for someone who's main "side" is the American people. I wouldn't push which independent they should vote for, but they should start considering independents.

 

[Redress]

We need a reworking of the voting system; if we implemented Instant Runoff Voting, or some other ranked voting system, we could stop tactical voting. People should vote for who they want to win, not who they think could win. If independents were a viable option, and "wasted votes" were not an issue, we might get out of this Democrat/Republican cycle of incompetence.

People always blame the other side for why America's failing, but they keep forgetting that both sides have been failing for a century; maybe it's time to stop voting for the "republican side" or the "democrat side", and start voting for someone who's main "side" is the American people. I wouldn't push which independent they should vote for, but they should start considering independents.

The solution to candidates other than republicans or democrats winning is making a party who actually appeals to voters, not trying to rig the system.

 

[Redress]

With the shutdown in progress I decided it was time to compare some stats today with the stats of November 2012 when President Obama won a second term.
Party Affiliation
Nov 2012 30% Republican 35% Democratic 36% Independent
Today 22% Republican 31% Democratic 45% Independent

President Obama Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 54% Approval 41% Disapproval
Today 41% Approval 52% Disapproval

Congressional Job Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 17% Approval 78% Disapproval
Today 14% Approval 78% Disapproval

The last stat thanks to Gallup is on independents since both of the major parties have shrunk while independents have gained. It is how Independents viewed President Obama

Nov 2012 51% of independents viewed him favorably and they came through for him on Election day.
Today only 36% of independents now view the president favorably.

So what do all these numbers mean? I think each individual should view them and then let me know what they think. These numbers will mean different things to different people.

Bad news for every one, but that is not surprising. The party affiliation one is the one that probably means the most since it could have a real impact on the next election, but that will change again before then I am sure.

 

[douglas]

The solution to candidates other than republicans or democrats winning is making a party who actually appeals to voters, not trying to rig the system.

How is IRV or Ranked Voting, rigging the system? There are dozens of countries that do their elections that way, and they typically have much more consistent approval ratings for their elected officials. By the OP's numbers, if the ballot read "Democrat", "Republican", "Independent", the Independent would win the vote, given the absence of tactical voting. A ranked vote is simply a way of alleviating the fear of "wasting" a vote, that leads to people voting against themselves. It would reduce the "lesser of two evils" phenomena. I really don't see the "rigging" part, where the will of the people is represented instead of the will of either the DEM or GOP party. If people really do prefer DEM or GOP, that candidate would still win in an IRV or Ranked Vote election.

 

[Perotista]

Bad news for every one, but that is not surprising. The party affiliation one is the one that probably means the most since it could have a real impact on the next election, but that will change again before then I am sure.

Yes it will as these polls are all dynamic and change is inevitable. What really struck me, is that for the first time in history, more Americans call themselves independents than those who affiliate/identify themselves with both political parties. That fact alone I think is very significant.

 

[Perotista]

The solution to candidates other than republicans or democrats winning is making a party who actually appeals to voters, not trying to rig the system.

Having worked for Ross Perot and followed various independent candidates since. They system is rigged. Remember Republicans and Democrats write the election laws and they write them as a mutual protection act. The one thing even today that all Republicans and Democrats can agree on, that is no viable third party.

 

[polgara]

Yes it will as these polls are all dynamic and change is inevitable. What really struck me, is that for the first time in history, more Americans call themselves independents than those who affiliate/identify themselves with both political parties. That fact alone I think is very significant.

What does that mean to you, Pero? They'll go with whoever has the best message, depending upon circumstances at the time?

 

[Redress]

Having worked for Ross Perot and followed various independent candidates since. They system is rigged. Remember Republicans and Democrats write the election laws and they write them as a mutual protection act. The one thing even today that all Republicans and Democrats can agree on, that is no viable third party.

Point to one third party that gets more than about 2 % of the vote? Without that, there is no viable third party.

 

[sangha]

With the shutdown in progress I decided it was time to compare some stats today with the stats of November 2012 when President Obama won a second term.
Party Affiliation
Nov 2012 30% Republican 35% Democratic 36% Independent
Today 22% Republican 31% Democratic 45% Independent

President Obama Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 54% Approval 41% Disapproval
Today 41% Approval 52% Disapproval

Congressional Job Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 17% Approval 78% Disapproval
Today 14% Approval 78% Disapproval

The last stat thanks to Gallup is on independents since both of the major parties have shrunk while independents have gained. It is how Independents viewed President Obama

Nov 2012 51% of independents viewed him favorably and they came through for him on Election day.
Today only 36% of independents now view the president favorably.

So what do all these numbers mean? I think each individual should view them and then let me know what they think. These numbers will mean different things to different people.

I think it represents increased political polarization and disgust with political partisanship on both sides.

 

[johndylan1]

With the shutdown in progress I decided it was time to compare some stats today with the stats of November 2012 when President Obama won a second term.
Party Affiliation
Nov 2012 30% Republican 35% Democratic 36% Independent
Today 22% Republican 31% Democratic 45% Independent

President Obama Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 54% Approval 41% Disapproval
Today 41% Approval 52% Disapproval

Congressional Job Approval/Disapproval ratings
Nov 2012 17% Approval 78% Disapproval
Today 14% Approval 78% Disapproval

The last stat thanks to Gallup is on independents since both of the major parties have shrunk while independents have gained. It is how Independents viewed President Obama

Nov 2012 51% of independents viewed him favorably and they came through for him on Election day.
Today only 36% of independents now view the president favorably.

So what do all these numbers mean? I think each individual should view them and then let me know what they think. These numbers will mean different things to different people.

Independents are often seen as the equivalent to moderates, and some are moderately confused. However, I think the largest increase in their numbers is due to conservative libertarians who can't put up with party shenanigans anymore. So as a block independents will lean conservative.

 

[JumpinJack]

Well, I'm liberal but Independent. That is, I don't affiliate with either of the major parties. "Independent" refers to party affiliation and doesn't refer to one's political leanings. Some people get that confused.

So as an Independent, I'm pleased to see the Indies growing. Both political parties are in teh pockets of special interests. I wish they'd wear name tags indicating who they're spokespeople for ("oil industry," "Big Pharma," "Big Corporations," "BP," etc.)

But I don't know if those polls mean that much. Those numbers go up and down, and in a Presidential election, the Indies split to one or the other of the major political parties. Even myself....rather than waste a vote, I vote for the lesser of two evils. Or in the case of Obama, I genuinely wanted to vote for him. Both times.

 

[douglas]

This is the breakup of voting systems in the world; you should note that the "First Past the Post" system that we use is not the way most democracies are implemented.

 

[Perotista]

What does that mean to you, Pero? They'll go with whoever has the best message, depending upon circumstances at the time?

I think the part of the GOP losing 8 points and the Dems losing 4 points in party affiliation since last year means a lot of people are fed up with both parties. However at the moment, the Democrats are the least worst party. The lesser of two evils if you will. On the president, he has taken a lot of heat over the last year, IRS, NSA etc, all didn't help. But this shut down is also hurting him, but the Republican more. But this shutdown has hurt President Obama more than the Democratic Congressional Delegation. Only 36% of the indies now approve of him vs. 51% a year ago. But presidents, any president become less popular during their second term. So I am not sure what to make of this.

I do think in the polls that show 20% blaming both parties for the shutdown, independents make up almost all that 20%. Naturally Republicans are going to blame the president and the democrats and the democrats are going to blame the republicans. I think the rise in independents to its highest level ever is they are just feed up with all the shenanigans and games being played in Washington and want the people they elected to govern and stop playing political games.

 

[Perotista]

Point to one third party that gets more than about 2 % of the vote? Without that, there is no viable third party.

Ross received 19% back in 1992 and close to 10% in 1996. But he had money to get out his message. There is not third party out there today that I think can become viable. Besides the election laws, corporation who give to both parties do not want to have to give to a third, so some independent billionaire is a must.

 

[Perotista]

I think it represents increased political polarization and disgust with political partisanship on both sides.

yep, my view too.

 

[Perotista]

Independents are often seen as the equivalent to moderates, and some are moderately confused. However, I think the largest increase in their numbers is due to conservative libertarians who can't put up with party shenanigans anymore. So as a block independents will lean conservative.

That may have something to do with it. I do not know if moderate is the right word for independents though. I have found out that the biggest group that make up the indie ranks are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. If an election is defined on fiscal policies, the Republican Party will receive most of their votes, if more social issues are to the forefront, they will cast their votes for the Democrats.

 

[polgara]

I think the part of the GOP losing 8 points and the Dems losing 4 points in party affiliation since last year means a lot of people are fed up with both parties. However at the moment, the Democrats are the least worst party. The lesser of two evils if you will. On the president, he has taken a lot of heat over the last year, IRS, NSA etc, all didn't help. But this shut down is also hurting him, but the Republican more. But this shutdown has hurt President Obama more than the Democratic Congressional Delegation. Only 36% of the indies now approve of him vs. 51% a year ago. But presidents, any president become less popular during their second term. So I am not sure what to make of this.

I do think in the polls that show 20% blaming both parties for the shutdown, independents make up almost all that 20%. Naturally Republicans are going to blame the president and the democrats and the democrats are going to blame the republicans. I think the rise in independents to its highest level ever is they are just feed up with all the shenanigans and games being played in Washington and want the people they elected to govern and stop playing political games.

Do Independents, as a rule, kind of "lean" toward the party they left, ideologically speaking, or do they go with a third party? It would be interesting to know what percentages from either party have left. :thumbs:

 

[sangha]

Do Independents, as a rule, kind of "lean" toward the party they left, ideologically speaking, or do they go with a third party? It would be interesting to know what percentages from either party have left. :thumbs:

Good question and I don't know the answer, but I'll give my opinion anyway :wink:

I think many independents are by nature non-partisan and not very political either. They vote, when they do vote, for whomever appeals to them more, mainly based on political campaigning and what the media is reporting.

The rest of them are divided up among those who are either to far to the left for the democrats, or to far to the right for republicans. Some of them vote for the major parties (the more practical minded ones) and some of them vote third party.

 

[Tothian]

People talk a lot about compromise. I don't think people should compromise on what is right or wrong.

Democrats and RINO's are all the same anyway. I don't think people will really care about bipartisanship when both parties are out to screw people over.

The Tea Party is the best thing that happened to the Republican Party. If the Republicans are smart, they will embrace the Tea Party ideology. If they are dumb, they will watch and see the Tea Party replace the GOP just as the Republicans replaced the Whigs in the mid 1800's.

People don't entirely understand the Tea Party all that much yet anyway. Plus, the common sense patriots are fighting a war on stupidity versus the lying liberal media who use fear-instilling propagandist tactics to make people afraid of Tea Party people.

There's no way for liberals to legitimately justify why they should disarm Americans, especially when proof indicates that it helps the bad guys. So, instead they use words like "extremist" or "right wing nutjob" or "teabaggers" - or daring to criticize their "intolerance" when the liberals themselves are some of the most intolerant of people in the world, hating people who don't glorify their harmful agendas.

But we can do the same too. Calling them Left Wing Loons, or Left Wing Extremists, Lie-berals.

ANYWAY, to answer the question about the poll numbers - poll numbers will change constantly.

 

[Perotista]

Do Independents, as a rule, kind of "lean" toward the party they left, ideologically speaking, or do they go with a third party? It would be interesting to know what percentages from either party have left. :thumbs:

Yes, the majority of independents lean one way or the other. I use to break party affiliation down into 5 categories. They are:
Republican
Democrat
Independent lean Republican
Independent lean Democrat
True Independent.

The thing here is that 45% who classifies themselves as independents, actually 12% would be in my true category. That means of the remaining 33%, they lean either one way or the other. But they are not die hards or follow party discipline. Let me put the numbers to this for you.

Republican 22%
Democrat 31%
Independent lean Republican 19%
Independent lean Democrat 16%
True Independent 12%

I could go farther, history has shown those who identify themselves as Republican or Democrat will vote for their party's candidate 90 plus percent of the time. Whereas those who lean one way or the other while calling themselves Independents will vote the way they lean approximately 2/3rd or lets say 67% of the time. Now the true independents are the ones who get peeved at the party in power at times and then go 75-80% against that party. This brings about sea change elections like happened in 1994, 2006 and 2010. Note in 1996, these indies went to the republicans, in 2006 to the Democrats and 2010 back to the Republicans. In none peeved years, they tend to go approximately 50-50 as was the case in 2012. President Obama won because more Democrats voted than Republicans while indies split pretty much up the middle.

 

[polgara]

Yes, the majority of independents lean one way or the other. I use to break party affiliation down into 5 categories. They are:
Republican
Democrat
Independent lean Republican
Independent lean Democrat
True Independent.

The thing here is that 45% who classifies themselves as independents, actually 12% would be in my true category. That means of the remaining 33%, they lean either one way or the other. But they are not die hards or follow party discipline. Let me put the numbers to this for you.

Republican 22%
Democrat 31%
Independent lean Republican 19%
Independent lean Democrat 16%
True Independent 12%

I could go farther, history has shown those who identify themselves as Republican or Democrat will vote for their party's candidate 90 plus percent of the time. Whereas those who lean one way or the other while calling themselves Independents will vote the way they lean approximately 2/3rd or lets say 67% of the time. Now the true independents are the ones who get peeved at the party in power at times and then go 75-80% against that party. This brings about sea change elections like happened in 1994, 2006 and 2010. Note in 1996, these indies went to the republicans, in 2006 to the Democrats and 2010 back to the Republicans. In none peeved years, they tend to go approximately 50-50 as was the case in 2012. President Obama won because more Democrats voted than Republicans while indies split pretty much up the middle.

Pero, thank you for being you! Keeping track of this stuff would drive me nuts! eace:

 

[Perotista]

Pero, thank you for being you! Keeping track of this stuff would drive me nuts! eace:

I love playing with the numbers and of course making my predictions.