They’ve already conquered most of the eastern part of Ukraine. If your narrative was true the Ukrainians would not be struggling to keep their troops in the field, and their own attacks would have had much more success than they’ve had for a long while now.
In 2024, Russia advanced at a rate of roughly 11 SQ km / day. Let's be conservative and assume that Russia is only going for what is formally considered to be Eastern Ukraine, consisting of a relatively mere 143,724 SQ KM between the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. It occupies roughly 82,000 SQ KM disincluding Crimea.
So, 143,724 SQKM - 82,000 SQKM (presently occupied) / 11 SQ km per day / 365 days = 15.37 years.
Meanwhile, Russia's economy is lucky if it'll last better than 2 years given its current challenges and rate of deficit spending.
Again, the West has been claiming that for three years now. It’s fully in “believe it when I see it actually happen” category at this point.
You are welcome to disregard the naked evidence that exists. Again, starry-eyed claims from talking heads that pretend to know far more than they do don't impress me, evidence and metrics do, and they are very bad indeed so far as Russia is concerned.
I mean, if you actually think the militaries of Croatia or Slovakia would put up a stronger fight than Ukraine, I suppose you are entitled to that belief, but it isn’t really supported by facts. As a collective NATO operates more an an extension of American political will than as a coherent force in itself. Saying one country doesn’t stack up to twenty something nations is a meaningless assertion. The US itself wouldn’t do very well up against the entirety of the Middle East.
Article 5 necessitates a collective NATO response. If Russia were to theoretically menace the West militarily, it would inevitably trigger A5, and thus the collective power of the entire military alliance.
Literally the only reason this is brought up is because we are assessing the relative threat posed by the Russia of today to the West, which overwhelmingly falls under the umbrella of NATO, versus alternative possibilities like China. While I don't find that China would do favourably against the 32 nations comprising NATO either, a presently crippled Russia would do much, much worse.
Again, the West still claims the equipment they are providing is “game changing” and “the best in the world”.
Well breathless anchors on TV may do that perhaps.
I personally can't say, nor do I claim, that Ukraine has been given anything truly game changing, much less the truly 'best in the world' bleeding edge of Western weaponry, but the tech they are given certainly and demonstrably has given them an edge that compensates for many Russian ones and has been provably indispensable to them to lasting as long as they've managed, and exacting as much blood and treasure from Russia as they have.