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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread



JD — Is there a sense that the codes and rules that nuclear-armed nations used to abide by have unravelled and can’t be put back together again?

FH —
I don’t know if we can say that they can’t be put back together again, but, look, it’s certainly changed really quite dramatically with the war in Ukraine. One could always say that, actually, in India and Pakistan’s case, there’s always that threat of a potential nuclear exchange hovering over their various military confrontations. One might also think that could be the case when you have India and China facing off across the Himalayas, although nobody’s really, I think, seriously factored that in. It’s always talked about in slightly hushed tones.

But in the case of Russia in Ukraine, I think we’re pretty certain that Vladimir Putin was contemplating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in 2022, when the tide was turned against the Russian military, when they were pinned down on the ground in the Kherson region and around the Dnipro River. We’ll all recall that there was analysis and all kinds of discussions at the time about whether Putin was willing to detonate a small-yield tactical nuclear weapon in that context. He wanted to use it as a game changer on the battlefield, and he amped up the rhetoric. That is, I think, very important.

During the Cold War era, we got very close to the contemplation of a nuclear exchange in 1983, during the War Scare that unfolded in the wake of the Abel Archer exercise, which the United States had intended to be purely a deterrent, but which the Soviet Union saw as a rehearsal for a first strike against it. We now know, because of the release of documents, that we were actually pretty close to sparking a catastrophe there. And, of course, there were other close calls throughout the Cold War. But I think we were also more careful and cautious in that period about the way that we resorted to the threat of nuclear war, because there was always a very clear sense that we would face societal annihilation.
 
I ran across an interesting and I think very instructive video for those who don't get Putin and why Trump, among others, don't get him either.

I am familiar with the host, who co-hosts a you tube channel with another fellow based in the UK - of Russian descent the Putin cheerleaders should sit down and listen.

 
I ran across an interesting and I think very instructive video for those who don't get Putin and why Trump, among others, don't get him either.

I am familiar with the host, who co-hosts a you tube channel with another fellow based in the UK - of Russian descent the Putin cheerleaders should sit down and listen.


Very informative without the usual spin and western wishful thinking.
 

>In the now-famous exchange, Zelensky asked about the value of deals when Putin had broken previously agreed upon ones, which in turn provoked an angry response from Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Trump declared that Zelensky had "no cards" to play in the conflict and needed the U.S. to have any chance of survival. Speaking with Raddatz on Sunday through a translator, Zelensky maintained the need to defend his position and to stand up for his people. "We all saw that Oval Office, chaotic, disastrous meeting. I know after that meeting, you tried to repair that relationship. Tell us what it was like in the aftermath," Raddatz said. "It's quite complicated. You could watch it live, and it was very clear and very straightforward. I was very honest and open when I said that a small country is fighting for its life against the giant with all that evil they brought with their army and weapons to our land." Zelensky said. The pair would not speak directly again until they came face-to-face two months later at the funeral of Pope Francis in late April. Photos from that meeting show the two presidents sitting in close and isolated conversation. Zelensky said Sunday that following that meeting, he would "like to believe that the relationship has changed for the better," but added, "I don't know for sure. I can't give you 100 percent guarantee."<

It is clear that Trump values a relationship with Russia, and an odd friendship with Putin over Ukraine. ibid




>The U.S. can no longer be considered a reliable ally for Britain and the other NATO members, former Russia adviser to President Donald Trump Fiona Hill said in a recent interview with British newspaper The Guardian. "We're in pretty big trouble," the American-British national said during her interview about the U.K.'s vulnerable geopolitical situation. "We can't rely exclusively on anyone anymore," she said, casting doubt on Trump's determination to tackle Vladimir Putin's aggressive expansion ambitions in Europe. While Trump has recently shown frustration with Putin, he has remained reluctant to impose further sanctions on Moscow—a type of punishment that European leaders have instead embraced. In a recent interview with The Telegraph, Hill said: "If you offer the Russians a carrot, they just eat it, or they take it and hit you over the head with it."<

Fiona Hill is an excellent Russia analyist which is probably one of the reasons why Trump wanted her gone.

Trump has always surrounded himself with losers, traitors, and criminals.... Roy Cohn, Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, etc. etc. Putin fits in nicely.




>Moscow's economy is sliding toward the brink of "stagflation," according to a new report published by a Russian economics research organization close to the country's government. The report's author, Dmitry Belousov, head of analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CAMAC), said that the "economic dynamics" in Russia are "rapidly declining, with a risk of a technical recession in the second and third quarters" of 2025. In a sign that the Kremlin is aware of how fragile the country's economic position currently is, Russia's central bank cut its key interest rate to 20 percent on Friday, down from a two-decade high of 21 percent. The analyst recommends that the country focuses on reducing inflation to avoid the worst possible scenario for the Russian economy.<

Putin has Russia running on a "total-war' economy. This methodology will function adequately in the short term, but once the military necessity receeds, stagflation will set in which is very difficult to tame once unleashed.



Graph below from the ISW shows Russian drone/missile attacks on Ukraine during the past 6 months.

The number of drones/missiles used on any particular day is at the far left. Putin's retaliation for Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian aircraft on June 1 is evident at the far right.

institute-study-war-graph.webp
 
So, Putin has to end the war very soon, within a year to avoid total economic collapse? Sounds like time is not really on his side no matter how many more troops he throws into the fray. The Ukrainians continual buildup of defensive positions makes it appear a Russian victory is out of reach.
 

>In the now-famous exchange, Zelensky asked about the value of deals when Putin had broken previously agreed upon ones, which in turn provoked an angry response from Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Trump declared that Zelensky had "no cards" to play in the conflict and needed the U.S. to have any chance of survival. Speaking with Raddatz on Sunday through a translator, Zelensky maintained the need to defend his position and to stand up for his people. "We all saw that Oval Office, chaotic, disastrous meeting. I know after that meeting, you tried to repair that relationship. Tell us what it was like in the aftermath," Raddatz said. "It's quite complicated. You could watch it live, and it was very clear and very straightforward. I was very honest and open when I said that a small country is fighting for its life against the giant with all that evil they brought with their army and weapons to our land." Zelensky said. The pair would not speak directly again until they came face-to-face two months later at the funeral of Pope Francis in late April. Photos from that meeting show the two presidents sitting in close and isolated conversation. Zelensky said Sunday that following that meeting, he would "like to believe that the relationship has changed for the better," but added, "I don't know for sure. I can't give you 100 percent guarantee."<

It is clear that Trump values a relationship with Russia, and an odd friendship with Putin over Ukraine. ibid




>The U.S. can no longer be considered a reliable ally for Britain and the other NATO members, former Russia adviser to President Donald Trump Fiona Hill said in a recent interview with British newspaper The Guardian. "We're in pretty big trouble," the American-British national said during her interview about the U.K.'s vulnerable geopolitical situation. "We can't rely exclusively on anyone anymore," she said, casting doubt on Trump's determination to tackle Vladimir Putin's aggressive expansion ambitions in Europe. ,,,

Fiona Hill is an excellent Russia analyist which is probably one of the reasons why Trump wanted her gone.

Trump has always surrounded himself with losers, traitors, and criminals.... Roy Cohn, Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, etc. etc. Putin fits in nicely.




>Moscow's economy is sliding toward the brink of "stagflation," according to a new report published by a Russian economics research organization close to the country's government. The report's author, Dmitry Belousov, head of analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CAMAC), said that the "economic dynamics" in Russia are "rapidly declining, with a risk of a technical recession in the second and third quarters" of 2025. In a sign that the Kremlin is aware of how fragile the country's economic position currently is, Russia's central bank cut its key interest rate to 20 percent on Friday, down from a two-decade high of 21 percent. The analyst recommends that the country focuses on reducing inflation to avoid the worst possible scenario for the Russian economy.<

Putin has Russia running on a "total-war' economy. This methodology will function adequately in the short term, but once the military necessity receeds, stagflation will set in which is very difficult to tame once unleashed.



Graph below from the ISW shows Russian drone/missile attacks on Ukraine during the past 6 months.

The number of drones/missiles used on any particular day is at the far left. Putin's retaliation for Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian aircraft on June 1 is evident at the far right.

My key takaways:

1." While Trump has recently shown frustration with Putin, he has remained reluctant to impose further sanctions on Moscow—a type of punishment that European leaders have instead embraced. In a recent interview with The Telegraph, Hill said: "If you offer the Russians a carrot, they just eat it, or they take it and hit you over the head with it."

2. Trump remains fixated on a personal friendship with Putin rather than effectively dealing with the butchery of the Ukrainian people.

3. The combination of war expenditures and sanctions has finally brought Russia to the brink of an economic crisis and now is the time to push them over the cliff. Trump, again, is saving Russia and Putin from a well-deserved implosion.
 


Fine. Then Ukraine will take their aid money to Euro military defense companies who will be glad to sell the stuff to them.

Endangering the lives of Ukrainian civilians and aiding our Defense industry's overseas competitors. The dumb shit.
 
Correct your aim just a smidge, Ukraine.


June 9 (Reuters) - A Ukrainian drone strike, among the deepest into Russia in more than three years of the war, forced a temporary suspension of production at an electronics company in the Volga river region of Chuvashia, the head of the region said on Monday.

<skip>

It was not immediately clear whether the drones caused any damage. Nikolayev said that another drone fell onto some fields in the area of the capital of the region, Cheboksary.


 

American-run rehab center in Kyiv providing veterans with prosthetic limbs and jobs


When Mike Corcoran heard about the number of amputees, he felt the need to spread his work to Kyiv.

Corcoran is co-founder and CEO of Medical Center Orthotics and Prosthetics (MCOP), a privately funded company based in the Washington, D.C., area. His company has been helping wounded veterans get prosthetics and with rehabilitation at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for years.

<skip>

His company officially opened its doors in Kyiv six weeks ago. In Ukraine, they manufacture and fit veterans with custom prosthetics while also providing rehabilitation services. For the veterans of the Ukraine war, the opportunity to receive prosthetics is life-changing.




A very noble cause. :)

Fortunately it's a private entity, so Trump can't stop them in his usual asinine or vindictive ways from providing these services.
 
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