[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[EnigmaO01]

Reminded me of some fine stories & mishaps

Me too. I was accused of pointing my gun at the range master in AF basic training. Our guns were constantly jamming and we were instructed to raise our hands when they did. Something about using a different round that wasn't a perfect fit to save money. The guy was yelling and screaming at us, and he made me so nervous I raised my right hand with the gun instead of my empty left hand. He came unglued and claimed the gun pointed right at his head. I think the main problem was I automatically got two stripes for my education and he had to earn his. I remember raising my gun but not at his head.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I had to go back out to the range a second time and this time got a sweet short attractive black woman for the range master. No issues.

My D.I.'s said they would never go hunting with me. No worries I didn't want to see those assholes again.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Good news

"Demobolised?" Maybe he just lost his legs?

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

 

[Chomsky]

It is 9:42 PM Pacific Time.

As I write this I wonder what the news from Ukraine (or about Ukraine) will be tomorrow morning. I am sensing that some very serious developments are near, and that in the next few mornings the taking Lyman will be accomplished. What will follow is unknown, but the 10s of thousands of newly conscripted are arriving and while I still believe they can halt Ukraine's offensive gains between now and the end of October, I also believe their slaughter will be inevitable.

Indeed, Russia sent in close to 200,000 troops, from which it lost approximately 40 to 50 percent. This army included conscripts who had completed training but the strong majority were professionals, many with experience in Syria, Chechnya, and and other conflicts.

Today the standing professional Army of Russia is half or less of what it was. Entire Russian "armies" have been destroyed, and their carnage continues. This mob of prior and older conscripts, without any refresher training, and raw conscripts and impressed civilians, will suffer much worse.

The 18 Himars will, I believe, be just the beginning of a new awakening to the the reality that this has never been a limited war in the mind of Putin, it has always been a proxy war since (or before) he invaded Georgia and then Crimea and NATO is his true enemy, not just Ukraine.

There is no off ramp because regardless of what the West does or does not do, Ukraine will never give up the fight. And hopefully neither will we.

We do not know if this will end with a collapse of the Russian army, a coup, or a nuclear event. All that can be said is that Russia will pay even more dearly for their quest for empire and enslavement, and that if eventually the west is willing to setup, train, and provide tanks, western aircraft, and more heavy weapons the Ukrainians can and will wipe the map clean of their enemy.

Till then, the Russians haven't seen anything yet.

ISW isn't much more optimistic concerning RU new conscripts:

Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that newly-mobilized Russian men arrived to reinforce elements of the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army in unspecified areas of Ukraine with no training at all.[8] Social media footage from September 27 shows a Russian soldier mobilized into the 1st Tank Regiment explaining that he will be sent to fight in Kherson Oblast within two days without any basic training, as ISW reported yesterday.[9] The 1st Guards Tank Army was considered Russia’s premier mechanized force prior to February 24, and that fact that its elements are being reinforced with poorly disciplined, untrained men is consistent with ISW’s previous assessments that even Russia’s most elite units have sustained substantial losses in Ukraine and are therefore increasingly degraded.[10] The addition of newly mobilized forces to elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army is unlikely to lend these units any decisive combat power.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat. Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that

www.understandingwar.org

 

[JANFU]

ISW isn't much more optimistic concerning RU new conscripts:

Institute for the Study of War

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat. Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that

www.understandingwar.org

They are an excellent source
And need spin for another defeat
From your link

Russian military leadership has likely failed to set information conditions for the potential defeat of the Russian grouping in Lyman, despite increasingly concerned discourse among Russian milbloggers regarding the potential for a Ukrainian envelopment of Lyman.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat. Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Schrott]

Interesting.I didn't think of that. I'll have to pass this on to my old man that was a demolitions expert. It's makes a lot of sense.

I was thinking what if there is no oxygen to ignite the gas in the pipeline, and then I remembered they use a compressor(s) to push the gas through which must use air.

Why about some kind of dragging anchor? OTOH I guess an explosion was reported.

To burn it needs oxygen, to explode it needs energy, like C4. You put the bomb inside, it would provide the energy to blow the complete pipe and its end points apart. That thing would go like a butane tank, just a touch bigger. The Spiegel reports half a ton. I think that is the total of all 4 explosions.
You put 1 kilos at a pipe, with the water pressure and density around it, 70 to 100 meters, that pipe will fly. If you want to blow something up from the outside, you need something to direct, the force of the explosion. Or you need a very large explosion, you need a containment vessel. Bombs and grenades are so powerfull, because of their containment vessel. If that thing gives, all the stored energy is released in milli seconds. If you just slap C4 to something, it makes a big bang, does some damage, but 80% of the energy goes into the air, the point of less resistant.
That pipeline job was a very sophisticated operation. Top notch

 

[Chomsky]

They are an excellent source
And need spin for another defeat
From your link

Institute for the Study of War

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat. Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that

www.understandingwar.org

Yep, caught that.

ISW really seems to know what they're doing, and they speak with authority - and always seem to be right!

 

[Chomsky]

If true, and they attack Ukraine, could result in a coup
Reports I have read, the vast majority of people do not support the war in Ukraine

I think we have to be careful in believing this Tweet, until we can get credible verification.

 

[Chomsky]

Great PR by Ukraine

Beyond. This is excellent!

 

[Chomsky]

If Lukashenko is dumb enough to attack Ukraine directly, it will be the biggest mistake he's ever made. Belarus's army is small, like around 50K, their command and control is just like Russia's, and their equipment is in even worse shape. Also their generals are reluctant to fight.

I find that Tweet somewhat suspect and hard to believe, at this point. This makes absolutely no sense for Lukashenko. He couldn't even get the regular army to go over, and now he's going to mobilize or do something to send 120K?

Barring Putin putting an existential gun to Lukashenko's head (possible - I suppose), I can't imagine this.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Is this the same guy that screwed up early in the war and said they were giving Ukraine MIGS without approval by NATO?

 

[JANFU]

Is this the same guy that screwed up early in the war and said they were giving Ukraine MIGS without approval by NATO?

I don;t know for sure. I do recall a low level Euro bureaucrat, known for stepping on his Willy, was the 1st to bring up Migs for Ukraine
And a NATO political shit show ensued,

 

[JANFU]

Yep, caught that.

ISW really seems to know what they're doing, and they speak with authority - and always seem to be right!

I admire their ability to recognize where they made mistakes.
Very few sources have that credibility.

 

[JANFU]

I think we have to be careful in believing this Tweet, until we can get credible verification.

Words cost nothing, actions do
Belarus has been under pressure to provide more support in the war. i recall the sabotage of the Rail system in Belarus.
Lukashenko, faced down a serious threat to his power, with support from Russia stabilizing his power

Damn it, we agree

KYIV, April 26 (Reuters) - Belarus moved on Wednesday to make attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty after activists tried to sabotage parts of the railway network to make it harder for Russia to deploy forces into Ukraine for its invasion.

The Belarusian lower house of parliament approved the change to the criminal code in two readings, the Belta news agency reported. The change now needs backing from the upper house and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko before entering force.

May 2022- Lucashenko has moved farther away from Putin

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s strongman leader, has started signaling his unease over how the war in Ukraine is unfolding. Despite being Moscow’s only ally in Europe, Lukashenko has lamented that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military campaign is “dragging on.” He has also urged the West not to lump Belarus in with Russia as a co-aggressor.

Won’t Get Fooled Again: Is Lukashenko Trying to Distance Himself From Russia?

Even if Lukashenko gets serious about attempting a new balancing act, he will first have to earn the right to be heard.

carnegieendowment.org

Belarus eyes wider death penalty use after anti-war railway sabotage

Belarus moved on Wednesday to make attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty after activists tried to sabotage parts of the railway network to make it harder for Russia to deploy forces into Ukraine for its invasion.

www.reuters.com

 

[beefheart]

Might take a little longer. One food is in short supply, Hunger can be a great motivator.

Air drop some vodka spiked with LSD.....

 

[beefheart]

I find that Tweet somewhat suspect and hard to believe, at this point. This makes absolutely no sense for Lukashenko. He couldn't even get the regular army to go over, and now he's going to mobilize or do something to send 120K?

Barring Putin putting an existential gun to Lukashenko's head (possible - I suppose), I can't imagine this.

Belarus is like Russia's dipshit redneck cousins. Too damned poor and stupid to do anything right.

The Denver Broncos could probably take the country in 36 hours.

 

[beefheart]

I don;t know for sure. I do recall a low level Euro bureaucrat, known for stepping on his Willy, was the 1st to bring up Migs for Ukraine
And a NATO political shit show ensued,

My brother owns a MiG. He is a WWII collector, he bought one, ex Polish AF, from a guy in FL, it was featured on the TV show Shipping Wars, they shipped it to San Diego.

My brother isn't a pilot, he just keeps it at Brown Field, and every once in a while gasses it up and revs it.

Kinda silly, but...collectors...

 

[JANFU]

A top manager for Rail in Russia, and he goes on vacation, only to apparently commit suiicide
Yes, a balconey was involved

Top Cargo 200 said that Digital Logistics was reportedly being blamed for failing to protect the infrastructure of the Russian Railway network from hackers based in Ukraine, leading to delays in critical supplies getting to Russian troops.

The Russian website Starhit.ru reported how the previous month, Pchelnikov had been on vacation from where he shared images, saying that "what prompted the man to take a desperate step remains a mystery."

Russian Railway Executive Found Shot to Death on His Balcony

The body of 52-year-old Pavel Pchelnikov was found on Wednesday at his apartment, according to media reports.

www.newsweek.com

 

[ASHES]

A top manager for Rail in Russia, and he goes on vacation, only to apparently commit suiicide
Yes, a balconey was involved

Russian Railway Executive Found Shot to Death on His Balcony

The body of 52-year-old Pavel Pchelnikov was found on Wednesday at his apartment, according to media reports.

www.newsweek.com

When you said suicide, and balcony, naturally I assumed it was a deviation from the normal window suicide, only to read a little further and see it is quite not that.

 

[Juks]

Were it later shown that Russia did it, how would you reconcile your current belief that it couldn't have been? Might it be that what makes sense to Putin is far different than what you, as a westerner, thinks is sensible?

Regardless of what we think, it is very plausible that damaging two pipelines that arn't going to be used in the foreseeable future is worth it to send a serious warning to Europe about what Russia can and may do to protect its gains. It may be worth it to try and divide the allies.

Putin, like Hitler and Stalin had/have a very skewed view of their enemy ... they don't think like us so they do not always understand the actual impact.

Well, since I don't know, I am after al guessing... I would be relieved.

 

[Juks]

Putin thought he was more in danger of being overthrown if his successor could quickly reestablish energy transfers to Europe.

This is actually the best argument I heard so far. It is entirely plausible.

 

[maxparrish]

Beyond. This is excellent!

Yes, Russians torture and starve Ukrainian POWS, Ukraine lets Russian POWS phone home. How could any American with a shred of decency still support the Russians monsters?

 

[maxparrish]

When you said suicide, and balcony, naturally I assumed it was a deviation from the normal window suicide, only to read a little further and see it is quite not that.

You know, given that there are high level very rich Russian's who have fled to the West, not only recently but in the past,,, I would like to know why these murders keep accelerating and who in particular is wanting these hits. Yet nobody seems to know who did what to earn a rubout from whom.