[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Chomsky]

Air drop some vodka spiked with LSD.....

I can't even imagine adding more delusionality in them!

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, Russians torture and starve Ukrainian POWS, Ukraine lets Russian POWS phone home. How could any American with a shred of decency still support the Russians monsters?

There's more than decency involved, there the tremendous PR & strategic value. UKR is doing everything right to help RU citizens end the war internally - this is one of them.

 

[Chomsky]

I think Putin is indeed putting a lot of pressure on Lukashenko to join in his invasion, but the latter knows that his military will revolt if they do, so Lukashenko is just probably stringing Vlad along at this stage.

Update: looks like the Russians know Lyman is lost, and now theyre just trying to save their troops:

Lets hope that update (RU exiting Lyman) is accurate. Last I read, there was chatter of RU attempting to fortify Lyman, I believe with - at least in part - the newly mobilized. There was some transit point where UKR was picking them off or impeding them, but I don't recall the name - if indeed the report I read was accurate.

 

[Chomsky]

Interesting thread.

It looks like whether RU retreats or stands-their-ground, they meet the same fate. They ran earlier in the offensive, and now they stayed, and neither option produced success.

This is obviously why Putin is throwing more bodies at the problem through mobilization . . .

 

[Chomsky]

After "annexation" means what in terms of Russian military strength, agility or resupply? Seems a huge gamble if that "Russian territory" is "lost" back to Ukraine.

Exactly, a post annexation loss would politically box Putin in even more - I would guess.

Looks like Putin is putting everything on the line, here.

 

[maxparrish]

 

[Chomsky]

Hopefully Ukraine can keep them from fleeing and takes them all prisoner

Somehow, I don't see this ending in peaceful surrender.

Obviously, RU on the ground first instinct is to flee if possible. Remember, UKR has been highly propagandized by the RU propaganda machine as atrocious NAZI butchers. Who wants to surrender to that fate?

But Putin gave "not one step back" orders, and we see how desperate he has been lately & how direct he is in getting involved in the military. Putin is adamant in keeping throwing bodies into the death machine. What fate awaits those that flee or withdraw?

Then in addition, UKR does not want these RU men to re-fortify the immediate key tactical UKR objectives further E, or the earlier static defensive positions of pre-invasion that they are (hopefully eventually) retreating to. My understanding is those pre-invasion RU positions are established & extensively physically fortified defensive positions, and as such will allow RU forces to act more efficiently & effectively in defense with the resources they have available (similar to how RU held the Lyman E point of contact, forcing UKR to do an end-run pincer movement from the flanks). Why would UKR allow that re-fortification to occur?

So these guys, IMO, are screwed. I suspect they'll probable cut & run after suffering fairly devastating losses (incl 155 & HIMAR induced), and get additionally peppered on the escape.

 

[Chomsky]

It's also just a month before an election where a bunch of American Putinists and Orbanists could come to power. Giving them easy political grist would be stupid. These are exactly the people who would rubberstamp Putin's invasion.

I hate to drift too far into the political realm, but yes - the politics (as always) will effect the war effort. GOP control of the House (a near foregone conclusion) can halt/impede Congressional military aid - absolutely. Whether they do halt or impede it will remain to be seen (perhaps not).

 

[Chomsky]

When removing an enemy position, it never hurts to put existential fear in the leadership.

 

[Chomsky]

President Zelensky has announced that he is requesting fast-track Nato membership.

Need's to happen.

Amazing!

Putin's plan to keep NATO away from his back-door seems to have fallen . . . a bit short.

He may even perhaps be precipitating a re-alignment of the world order.

Talk about the results of unintended consequences!

 

[Chomsky]

an alternative warhead with 182000 preformed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments and is designed to be used against soft targets.

Is this military jargon for "anti-personal weapon"?

Because even if that's not the primary objective, I suspect it will be a consequence.

My God, I would not want to be near one of these detonating.

 

[reinaert]

I hate to drift too far into the political realm, but yes - the politics (as always) will effect the war effort. GOP control of the House (a near foregone conclusion) can halt/impede Congressional military aid - absolutely. Whether they do halt or impede it will remain to be seen (perhaps not).

The politics are just part of the way Ukraine is helped, helped to win, or abandoned. If Biden just comes out and says even the bromide standard "all options are on the table" he's handing domestic Putinists running for office - and sadly that is in the plural - a lifeline and a ready made slogan: ''Biden will get your grandkids nuked" - for furriners. They won't even have to say the 'lotsa them furriners iz Jooz' part out loud, or double down on "globalists".

(These political opponents are not cut of the Mitch McConnell cloth. They are bold, but unwise and they are to a wo/man defined by a low cunning - but not generally long term thinking. So far, they've managed to take a midterm gimme and turn it into a real contest, almost like their 'own the libs' philosophy has matured into 'let's show them libs how to snatch defeat from victory like rul' amurrkans'.)

Biden would not deserve the Presidency - or to have the power to help Ukraine - if he helped our domestic authoritarians unshoot their own feet.

 

[maxparrish]

This is what the world faces, the spirit of nationalist Russia:

“We will defeat everyone, we will kill everyone, we will rob everyone we need, everything will be as we love” A fighter from the Vostok battalion, Vladlen Tatarsky, recorded a video from the Kremlin."

 

[Chomsky]

The politics are just part of the way Ukraine is helped, helped to win, or abandoned. If Biden just comes out and says even the bromide standard "all options are on the table" he's handing domestic Putinists running for office - and sadly that is in the plural - a lifeline and a ready made slogan: ''Biden will get your grandkids nuked" - for furriners. They won't even have to say the 'lotsa them furriners iz Jooz' part out loud, or double down on "globalists".

(These political opponents are not cut of the Mitch McConnell cloth. They are bold, but unwise and they are to a wo/man defined by a low cunning - but not generally long term thinking. So far, they've managed to take a midterm gimme and turn it into a real contest, almost like their 'own the libs' philosophy has matured into 'let's show them libs how to snatch defeat from victory like rul' amurrkans'.)

Biden would not deserve the Presidency - or to have the power to help Ukraine - if he helped our domestic authoritarians unshoot their own feet.

There was a time when American citizens were united in standing-up to the Soviets. There were a few extremist outliers, but otherwise we remained pretty much united. That all seemed to go south, somehow.

 

[JANFU]

Is this military jargon for "anti-personal weapon"?

Because even if that's not the primary objective, I suspect it will be a consequence.

My God, I would not want to be near one of these detonating.

Yes it is an anti personnel weapon.
For soft targets

 

[reinaert]

There was a time when American citizens were united in standing-up to the Soviets. There were a few extremist outliers, but otherwise we remained pretty much united. That all seemed to go south, somehow.

It sucked to be Ethiopian, Ecuadorian or Vietnamese during the CoDominion (points if you know the ref. w/o googling), and I don't want to minimize that, or the many problems of the monocultures in both power centers, but one of the upsides of the Cold War era was a deep and rational commitment to honest dishonesty: everyone played the game of patria, and then went about carving out proportional niches that didn't send the whole works spanning into the ravine below.

 

[Chomsky]

Yes it is an anti personnel weapon.
For soft targets

Ugh. I realize all's fair in war, but a weapon like that still gives me a pit in my stomach. I intellectually understand the rationale, but it almost seems evil. Perhaps a 'necessary evil', but still a very sad thing to unleash upon fellow humanity.

Thanks for the heads-up. Argh!

 

[reinaert]

Ugh. I realize all's fair in war, but a weapon like that still gives me a pit in my stomach. I intellectually understand the rationale, but it almost seems evil. Perhaps a 'necessary evil', but still a very sad thing to unleash upon fellow humanity.

Thanks for the heads-up. Argh!

We're all lucky the Russians appear to have been lying about their energetics.

 

[Chomsky]

It sucked to be Ethiopian, Ecuadorian or Vietnamese during the CoDominion (points if you know the ref. w/o googling), and I don't want to minimize that, or the many problems of the monocultures in both power centers, but one of the upsides of the Cold War era was a deep and rational commitment to honest dishonesty: everyone played the game of patria, and then went about carving out proportional niches that didn't send the whole works spanning into the ravine below.

Alright, fair enough in your response..

(BTW - I had to Google)

 

[reinaert]

(edit: replaced broken link)

Defiant Putin proclaims Ukrainian annexation as military setback looms

A defiant Vladimir Putin proclaimed Russia's annexation of a swathe of Ukraine in a pomp-filled Kremlin ceremony, promising Moscow would triumph in its "special military operation" even as he faced a potentially serious new military reversal.

www.reuters.com

'Russian forever' is a big ****ing check to write yourself.

 

[reinaert]

The money quote:

"..."I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me. For everyone to remember. People living in Luhansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are becoming our citizens. Forever," the Russian president said during the annexation ceremony..."

(CNN)

 

[Fledermaus]

Ugh. I realize all's fair in war, but a weapon like that still gives me a pit in my stomach. I intellectually understand the rationale, but it almost seems evil. Perhaps a 'necessary evil', but still a very sad thing to unleash upon fellow humanity.

Thanks for the heads-up. Argh!

Yes, war is hell. Human beings have an amazing capacity for designing things to remove fellow human beings from the gene pool.

This is different only in scale to Beehive rounds, canister shot, shrapnel shot, etc.

Gettysburg.

"Two gaps opened up in the Union line: the commander of the 71st Pennsylvania ordered his men to retreat when the Confederates came too close to the Angle; south of the copse of trees, the men of the 59th New York (Hall's brigade) inexplicably bolted for the rear. In the latter case, this left Captain Andrew Cowan and his 1st New York Independent Artillery Battery to face the oncoming infantry. Assisted personally by artillery chief Henry Hunt, Cowan ordered five guns to fire double canister simultaneously. The entire Confederate line to his front disappeared."

One unit from South Carolina effectively ceased to exist at that point.

 

[maxparrish]

I hate to drift too far into the political realm, but yes - the politics (as always) will effect the war effort. GOP control of the House (a near foregone conclusion) can halt/impede Congressional military aid - absolutely. Whether they do halt or impede it will remain to be seen (perhaps not).

There are two power bases of concern in the GOP. The first is given far too much attention, the handful of nut jobs that are an embarrassment to most...the pro Putin isolationist whackos. They are of no threat to the GOP on Ukraine. The second are the sell outs, that group of Republicans that would normally ignore the far right but for their desire to please Trump and get his endorsement may spell trouble for the majority.

Still, I have little doubt that the midterms won't change support for Ukraine (all other things being equal). However in 2024 if Trump gets elected, I fear that support for Ukraine will end.

 

[Chomsky]

Couldn't resist posting this:

(picture of the newly penned letter of intent to fast track UKR NATO application)

September 30, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

Vladimir Putin is expected to sign agreements Friday that will formally absorb into Russia thousands of square miles of Ukrainian territory in what will be the largest forcible annexation of land in Europe since 1945. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

The guy on the left is the UKR Speaker of the Parliament, the guy on the right is the Prime Minister. Essentially, we're looking at the core UKR senior leadership.

Now Zelensky isn't of the largest physical stature, I must admit. But if his two cohorts are typical of Ukrainian men, is it any wonder RU is losing the war?

 

[Yakshi]

Tonight's Ukrainian news is all about fast-tracking into NATO membership.