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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

maxparrish said:
I think it was a substantive operation, the Ukrainians have fought to hard to gain ground for it to have merely pin a fixing operation. And unfortunately, it looks like that they may have lost more troops for little gain.

However, they have trapped a great deal of Russian military power and might be able to keep reducing it by pounding supply lines. Perhaps it will ripen with time.
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My thoughts exactly.

It's substantive, and UKR wants it & intends to take it, but they are willing to bide reasonable time husbanding their human resources.

Also don't underestimate the effects of the Kherson resistance within. JANFU, just above, reports Kherson partisans are reporting supplies & resources attempting to enter the isolated territory, allowing pin-point guided UKR munitions strikes.

I'm surprised RU hasn't taken-out civilian communications yet.
 
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maxparrish said:
I'm sure they were aware that the Kherson offensive would require prolonged resources, and expected it. The main question now is will Ukraine get anymore heavy weapons? We have 525 Himars and over a 1000 M270s in stock. We have ordered increased production of the GMLRS missiles. Another 10 launchers and another influx of artillery of any type (e.g. 105s) would be most useful.

And now that Ukraine has shown its ground attack aircraft can survive in a Russian SAM environment, perhaps they might have renewed interest in the A10s that the air force would like to give them.
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The Russian SAM's have been neutralized. Right now the objective in Kherson is knocking out any Russian supply lines. That is all they need to do to win there too.
 
maxparrish said:
I'm sure they were aware that the Kherson offensive would require prolonged resources, and expected it. The main question now is will Ukraine get anymore heavy weapons? We have 525 Himars and over a 1000 M270s in stock. We have ordered increased production of the GMLRS missiles. Another 10 launchers and another influx of artillery of any type (e.g. 105s) would be most useful.

And now that Ukraine has shown its ground attack aircraft can survive in a Russian SAM environment, perhaps they might have renewed interest in the A10s that the air force would like to give them.
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I can't guess what's on the minds of NATO-U.S. administrations (though I suppose they're more pro-UKR than we realize). But, I think UKR has more than proven they can use our weaponry effectively and within an operational framework that is within the confines of NATO desires.
 
Chomsky said:
My thoughts exactly.

It's substantive, and UKR wants it & intends to take it, but they are willing to bide reasonable time husbanding their human resources.

Also don't underestimate the effects of the Kherson resistance within. JANFU, just above, reports Kherson partisans are reporting supplies & resources attempting to enter the isolated territory, allowing pin-point guided munitions strikes.

I'm surprised RU hasn't taken-out civilian communications yet.
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Actually I believe if a major breakthrough anywhere is achieved, it will fall rapidly. As it is, the salient created has inched forward and is about 40 percent of the way to the dam bridge (Nova whatever). If the Russians are bisected, its likely the beginning of the end there.
 
iguanaman said:
It was a ruse to trap Russia's best forces and the Russians fell for it hook line and sinker. All Russians north of the river are royally screwed and can either retreat on foot or end up dead or captured.
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Well, they'll need to have some pretty damn well long feet to cross the Dniper! :eek:
 


Losing this City after paying dearly for it would be an extremely demoralizing blow, especially for the Luhansk separatists. The are already angry that they are used outside of their "republic" for Russia's other objectives.

If there were some plausible deal Zelensky could make to get them out of the war I bet they would take it and tell Putin to take a hike. Problem is, I can't think of any deal that would be acceptable to Zelensky or the Ukrainian public.
 
basionok said:
View attachment 67412041

www.nytimes.com

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian Forces Take Key City, Igniting New Phase in War (Published 2022)

Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed its forces had withdrawn from Izium. Ukraine’s lightning offensive in the northeast has reshaped what had become a grinding war of attrition.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Kupiansk is the location of a major railroad hub that the Russians use to send supplies for the war.

The Russian withdrawal announcement came hours after Ukrainian troops captured the city of Kupiansk farther north, the sole railway hub supplying Russia's entire frontline across northeastern Ukraine. That left thousands of Russian troops abruptly cut off from supplies across a stretch of front that has seen some of the most intense battles of the war.
There were signs of trouble for Russia elsewhere along its remaining positions at the eastern front, with pro-Russian officials acknowledging difficulties at other locations and Ukrainians hinting at more advances to come.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-advance-threatens-turn-into-rout-2022-09-10/
 
Jredbaron96 said:
Recent events seem to indicate otherwise.
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We are talking about the prior Kharkiv offensive, are we not?
Jredbaron96 said:
Like what?
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Kozacha Lopan, Kupyansk, which is why the crossed the river at Stary Staltiv in the first place.
Jredbaron96 said:
Yes, in the middle of the Donbas offensive when the Russians were massing fires on a concentrated front. That has noticeably slackened off in the months since then, and coincidentally Russian advances have ground to inches.
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They've still been leveling everything in their way all throughout the offensive. The pro-Ukraine posters were repeating the same thing before the fall of Severodonetsk, Lysyschansk, and Popasna.
Jredbaron96 said:
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Nice psyop. If Ukraine's casualty counts were an underestimation, Ukraine would be in Crimea at this point.
Jredbaron96 said:






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You don't see thousands of Russian POWs lying around, do you? Ukraine couldn't even properly surround Balakliya.
Jredbaron96 said:
You really just straight up turned around and said "yeah those sources I cited are wrong so what"
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I've never used the Russian or Ukrainian MOD for casualty numbers.
Jredbaron96 said:
You keep saying this as if your words carrying any weight. You saying so means little if you don't have some kind of proof.
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14 recorded TB2 shootdowns. Think of how many wrecks weren't found and recorded.
 
Yakshi said:
There's a forumer named Chicken Tendies that you should be dropping some knowledge bombs on, HIMARs style, because before he shifted his goal posts again.
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Never happened, but ok
 
maxparrish said:
Actually I believe if a major breakthrough anywhere is achieved, it will fall rapidly. As it is, the salient created has inched forward and is about 40 percent of the way to the dam bridge (Nova whatever). If the Russians are bisected, its likely the beginning of the end there.
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I agree with the bolded. But that doesn't have to happen soon (though it may).

Like I said, UKR can (& should) husband their soldiers - letting the RU resources dry-up. There's no need to go up against heavy-loss heavy defensive fighting. Their time will come.

It seems to be the opposite strategy of the North, and I believe both suit their respective situations. UKR has proven itself quite resourceful & capable in a wide-variety of strategies & techniques!

Remember, with NATO supplies UKR resources in terms of equipment is open-ended, whereas resources in terms of men is finite & limited. RU can still conscript & throw tons of warm bodies into the fray, poorly effective as they may be - they can still force UKR attrition. UKR needs to use their men effectively.
 
maxparrish said:


Losing this City after paying dearly for it would be an extremely demoralizing blow, especially for the Luhansk separatists. The are already angry that they are used outside of their "republic" for Russia's other objectives.

If there were some plausible deal Zelensky could make to get them out of the war I bet they would take it and tell Putin to take a hike. Problem is, I can't think of any deal that would be acceptable to Zelensky or the Ukrainian public.
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Holy crap. Russians are almost getting pushed out of the country up there.
 
maxparrish said:


Losing this City after paying dearly for it would be an extremely demoralizing blow, especially for the Luhansk separatists. The are already angry that they are used outside of their "republic" for Russia's other objectives.

If there were some plausible deal Zelensky could make to get them out of the war I bet they would take it and tell Putin to take a hike. Problem is, I can't think of any deal that would be acceptable to Zelensky or the Ukrainian public.
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The Russian government is under the impression that the future of Russia depends on the dissolution of Ukraine as an independent nation. I believe if Ukraine is to survive as a geopolitical entity in the future, they must retake the separatist regions completely and put down the Russian-backed separatist movement permanently.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if there was a third prong, probably in the Zaporizhzhia region.
 
poweRob said:
Holy crap. Russians are almost getting pushed out of the country up there.
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OMG! I was just joking around about Severodonetsk upthread - only moments ago! I should have been more serious; this is really turning-out to be something.
 
Chomsky said:
Biden's recent $2B military aid package would seem to be a positive indication.

In fact with this being a NATO proxy war, I'm wondering if Biden & NATO leaders were not ware of the upcoming offensive? In order to supply, prep, & resource UKR?
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They were, NATO was part of the planning of this counter offensive in the East and South.
 
Felis Leo said:
The Russian government is under the impression that the future of Russia depends on the dissolution of Ukraine as an independent nation. I believe if Ukraine is to survive as a geopolitical entity in the future, they must retake the separatist regions completely and put down the Russian-backed separatist movement permanently.
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The bolded will surely be on their minds, without a doubt. But now their minds will also be on the inefficacy & vulnerability of their military. And ironically, their fears of NATO conflict will now have some factual basis!
 
Schrott said:
They were, NATO was part of the planning of this counter offensive in the East and South.
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I've never had the occasion to serve, and this is my first foray into active tactical observations of armed combat - so I'm out of my element without doubt! But, I thought as much as you confirmed. Thanks!
 
Chomsky said:
The bolded will surely be on their minds, without a doubt. But now their minds will also be on the inefficacy & vulnerability of their military. And ironically, their fears of NATO conflict will now have some factual basis!
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NATO knows that the "separatist" movement in Ukraine is entirely a Russian financed scam and the perpetrators will go running back to Russia. There is no NATO conflict for Ukraine uniting all of its territories.
 
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