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I'm sorry. I tried to wade through this and just couldn't.great question but lots of unknowns.. this (below) from a day ago by Russia's UN Ambassador Gennady Gatilov
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Russia rules out peace deal to end Ukraine war
Ambassador Gennady Gatilov warns Moscow expects a prolonged conflictwww.ft.com
Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN in Geneva, told the Financial Times that the UN should be playing a bigger role in attempts to end the conflict and accused the US and other Nato countries of pressing Ukraine to walk away from negotiations. There would be no direct talks between Putin and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he said. “Now, I do not see any possibility for diplomatic contacts,” Gatilov said. “And the more the conflict goes on, the more difficult it will be to have a diplomatic solution.”
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Erdogan is quoted in that article as well. My feeling is Ukraine has been getting everything it wants and more -which has escalated the war.
Putin just said he's going to add 137k forces this year yet..
It's not really demands by either side yet, though Russia has demanded an end of weapons escalation
Z. has been listening to his own press adoration, but he's getting everything and more and probably has worked himself into a mental state where he believes he can throw out Russians
Bottom line there has to be some diplomatic contacts thru the UN or a 3rd party to establish the fact there even ARE talks available before anything can be seriously considered
The source you link to is a subscribe only site. I'm not paying.
From what I gather Russia's rep to the UN is upset that NATO is not playing the way Putin anticipated and that the UN is not acting as a third party for negotiations.
The armed hostilities were initiated by Putin, there are steps he could take to show good faith and open clear lines of communications if he wanted but has chosen not to do so.
I can describe one of a few ways Putin could do this if he desired.
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