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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

So you are claiming the Ukrainians were not fleeing Lysychansk and being hit by cluster bombs is false?

Am I?

No.

Stop playing stupid.

This is your claim:


If you are being heavily shelled like this, it is not a strategic retreat. It's not even an organized retreat. They are fleeing.

By your "reasoning" the Russian Army groups that struck at Kyiv were not even in an organized retreat. They were fleeing. A rout.
 
Drawing them into the cities!? What? The Ukrainian infantry outperforming? What!? The Ukrainian infantry is retreating so fast that they are chaotically withdrawing. They are being shelled as they flee.

It's as if you woke up yesterday and haven't paid attention to anything that has happened over the past few months.

We have several months of data indicating the bulk of the Russian infantry are not well trained, not well equipped, not well-led, and suffer from poor morale. It's the opposite for the Ukrainians, except they don't have as much equipment as they need. However, the Russians also have significantly more artillery and are leaning on that artillery to make the minor, incremental gains you've seen.
 
And yet no mass mobilization nor proof as to how Ukraine is winning. You keep tiptoeing around the latter. But keep on hoping, Baghdad Bob.

Everyone thought the war would be over in 2 days. Everyone. Russia first tried to invade Ukraine from every direction, and the Ukrainians shocked the entire world when they demonstrated their intelligence, skill, and resilience by inflicting heavy losses on the Russians and forced the Russians to retreat.

It wasn't a "feint." Ukraine kicked Russia's ass. Case closed—end of story.

Now, the Ukrainians are suffering in a tiny portion of the country because the Russians have continually narrowed their goals as the Ukrainians have thwarted them at every turn.

So, right now, the Russians are making incremental gains in the East. That's true. Right now, the Russians outmatch the Ukrainians in terms of artillery. That doesn't mean the Russians are going to "win." Also, it depends on how you define winning. Maybe we'll enter a stalemate situation where the front lines don't change much. Is that winning for Russia when this war drags on for years, and when their initial goal was to place a compliant government in charge of the whole Ukraine? I don't think it is.

I think the Ukrainians are most likely to push the Russians out of their country and win fully. I say this based on how the Ukrainians are fighting. They're doing a better job of it all around. Most importantly, they've demonstrated they are going through their decision-making cycles far faster than the Russians. There's a lot that goes into that. The Ukrainians have better communications, better intelligence, higher morale, unity of purpose, a decentralized command structure where the teams on the battlefield are empowered to make their own decisions, and more. When the Ukrainians receive better weapons and can match up those weapons with how they approach warfare, you will begin to see Russia's position in Ukraine deteriorate and ultimately collapse. I see this as inevitable. There are a couple of ways out for Russia. Russia could use nukes, or Russia could mobilize more of its population for war. Both of these paths have negative consequences for Russia, though to the extent that Russia likely won't do either. As a result, Putin is trapped. He just doesn't know it yet.
 
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The US says it has purchased a medium-to-long range surface-to-air SAM missile defense system for Ukraine. Known as a NASAMS system, it has a range of 160km.


Other military assistance is also likely to be announced this week, including additional artillery ammunition and counter-battery radars.
 
Clearly there will be Charter of Rights cases moving thru the Courts. Eventually it will be up to our Supreme Court to decide
Selling Russian-owned assets to pay for Ukraine's reconstruction may sound like a logical approach to restitution, but as the Canadian government gains new powers to begin this process, questions remain about how it will work, and whether some issues are headed to court.

C-19, the budget implementation bill, received Royal Assent last Thursday. Among its many measures are new powers to seize and sell off assets owned by individuals and entities on Canada's sanctions list. While the new powers could be used in any international conflict, the Liberal government's current priority is helping victims of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
 
The US says it has purchased a medium-to-long range surface-to-air SAM missile defense system for Ukraine. Known as a NASAMS system, it has a range of 160km.


Other military assistance is also likely to be announced this week, including additional artillery ammunition and counter-battery radars.
Yes, you know NATO heads of government meet for three days beginning on the 29th, in Madrid.

And that the G-7 are meeting now, each of which is a NATO member to include a NATO Partner country Japan (SK, Australia, NZ). It's about Russia after all, so Pacific NATO Partners are affected.

NATO defense ministers met last week to address the new realities of peace, security, prosperity in Europe. So, indeed, we can expect announcements that address the new and radical situation of Russia initiating and pursuing a primitive and barbarian war in Europe. The paradigm of the 21st century has been altered radically by Putin's Russia.
 
NATO considers that a distinct possibility the Kremlin is publicizing the deadly nature of the rocket systems is that the Kremlin wants justification for taking extreme measures to defeat these weapons, such as attacking supply routes through which they reach Ukraine. Alternatively, it could be seeking justification for retaliating against the West – such as through cyberwarfare, or restricting oil and gas exports – for sending the rocket launchers to Ukraine in the first place.

Good news for the good guys...

RUSSIAN OFFICER FEARS AMERICAN ROCKET LAUNCHERS SUPPLIED TO UKRAINE​

Ukraine’s new American-made rocket launchers are the deadliest weapons in Ukraine’s arsenal.


The expert specifically cited the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), delivered to Ukraine by the U.S., and the U.S.-made M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) delivered by Britain. “Of all possible armaments supplied by the collective West, the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS are the most dangerous and capable weapons available to the Ukrainian armed forces that can influence combat operations,” said Alexey Sakantsev, whom TASS identified as a reserve officer in Russia’s missile and artillery forces. Sakantsev echoed the Biden administration’s fears that Ukraine might use these rocket launchers, which can fire guided and unguided munitions at ranges of up to 50 miles, to hit targets inside Russia.

Because many of these munitions are GPS-guided, they “feature low circular error probability and, therefore, require no adjustment fire: the target will be hit suddenly and accurately and, in case of cluster munitions, massively,” Sakantsev said. Interestingly, while Russia has invested heavily in GPS jamming systems, Sakantsev doesn’t believe that the American rockets can be stopped by jamming GPS guidance signals. Sakantsev argues that Russia’s best defense against MRLS and HIMARS is to destroy the launchers before they can fire.



And bad news for the bad guys...

In other words Russian forces are screwed against these systems. Especially if their only hope is to destroy the systems "before they can fire." While these systems in their limited number aren't going to win the war, they will cost Russian forces even more and move 'em closer to their point of exhausting their force strength as the invader who bears the burden of victory that in Ukraine has already been too great for Russia to realize.
 
The HIMARS and MLRS are land mobile systems and utilize the "shoot and scoot" operational methodology.

They are only stationary long enough to fire their 8 tubes. Less than a minute.

Even with counter-battery radar, accurately striking these systems in such a short time-frame is exceedingly difficult.

4 more HIMARS are en route.
 
NATO considers that a distinct possibility the Kremlin is publicizing the deadly nature of the rocket systems is that the Kremlin wants justification for taking extreme measures to defeat these weapons, such as attacking supply routes through which they reach Ukraine. Alternatively, it could be seeking justification for retaliating against the West – such as through cyberwarfare, or restricting oil and gas exports – for sending the rocket launchers to Ukraine in the first place.
I no longer hear threats of use of chemical or nuclear weapons as the main threat from Russia. I am very concerned about the blockade of the Black Sea and Ukrainian ability to export grain. I have always worried about Mikolaiv and Odesa. I do not think their fate rests on a threat but on which country has the upper hand in war, but the action on the Black Sea does (in my opinion). I think Russia uses that as a bargaining chip.
 
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The Russian military and the North Korean military are indistinguishable.


This is terrorism, plain and simple.
 

The Russian military and the North Korean military are indistinguishable.


As of right now, the Russians are worse.
 
NATO considers that a distinct possibility the Kremlin is publicizing the deadly nature of the rocket systems is that the Kremlin wants justification for taking extreme measures to defeat these weapons, such as attacking supply routes through which they reach Ukraine. Alternatively, it could be seeking justification for retaliating against the West – such as through cyberwarfare, or restricting oil and gas exports – for sending the rocket launchers to Ukraine in the first place.

Good news for the good guys...

RUSSIAN OFFICER FEARS AMERICAN ROCKET LAUNCHERS SUPPLIED TO UKRAINE​

Ukraine’s new American-made rocket launchers are the deadliest weapons in Ukraine’s arsenal.


The expert specifically cited the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), delivered to Ukraine by the U.S., and the U.S.-made M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) delivered by Britain. “Of all possible armaments supplied by the collective West, the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS are the most dangerous and capable weapons available to the Ukrainian armed forces that can influence combat operations,” said Alexey Sakantsev, whom TASS identified as a reserve officer in Russia’s missile and artillery forces. Sakantsev echoed the Biden administration’s fears that Ukraine might use these rocket launchers, which can fire guided and unguided munitions at ranges of up to 50 miles, to hit targets inside Russia.

Because many of these munitions are GPS-guided, they “feature low circular error probability and, therefore, require no adjustment fire: the target will be hit suddenly and accurately and, in case of cluster munitions, massively,” Sakantsev said. Interestingly, while Russia has invested heavily in GPS jamming systems, Sakantsev doesn’t believe that the American rockets can be stopped by jamming GPS guidance signals. Sakantsev argues that Russia’s best defense against MRLS and HIMARS is to destroy the launchers before they can fire.



And bad news for the bad guys...

In other words Russian forces are screwed against these systems. Especially if their only hope is to destroy the systems "before they can fire." While these systems in their limited number aren't going to win the war, they will cost Russian forces even more and move 'em closer to their point of exhausting their force strength as the invader who bears the burden of victory that in Ukraine has already been too great for Russia to realize.

From your mouth to God's ears, Tangmo.
 
Everyone thought the war would be over in 2 days. Everyone. Russia first tried to invade Ukraine from every direction, and the Ukrainians shocked the entire world when they demonstrated their intelligence, skill, and resilience by inflicting heavy losses on the Russians and forced the Russians to retreat.

It wasn't a "feint." Ukraine kicked Russia's ass. Case closed—end of story.

Now, the Ukrainians are suffering in a tiny portion of the country because the Russians have continually narrowed their goals as the Ukrainians have thwarted them at every turn.

So, right now, the Russians are making incremental gains in the East. That's true. Right now, the Russians outmatch the Ukrainians in terms of artillery. That doesn't mean the Russians are going to "win." Also, it depends on how you define winning. Maybe we'll enter a stalemate situation where the front lines don't change much. Is that winning for Russia when this war drags on for years, and when their initial goal was to place a compliant government in charge of the whole Ukraine? I don't think it is.

I think the Ukrainians are most likely to push the Russians out of their country and win fully. I say this based on how the Ukrainians are fighting. They're doing a better job of it all around. Most importantly, they've demonstrated they are going through their decision-making cycles far faster than the Russians. There's a lot that goes into that. The Ukrainians have better communications, better intelligence, higher morale, unity of purpose, a decentralized command structure where the teams on the battlefield are empowered to make their own decisions, and more. When the Ukrainians receive better weapons and can match up those weapons with how they approach warfare, you will begin to see Russia's position in Ukraine deteriorate and ultimately collapse. I see this as inevitable. There are a couple of ways out for Russia. Russia could use nukes, or Russia could mobilize more of its population for war. Both of these paths have negative consequences for Russia, though to the extent that Russia likely won't do either. As a result, Putin is trapped. He just doesn't know it yet.

It appears that if the Ukrainians have any chance of "winning" (i.e., retaking the Donbas), it would be to cut the Russian resupply arteries. Apparently, the most notable and strategically significant chokepoint the Russians have is the gigantic rail line that runs from Russian onto the Crimean Peninsula known as the Kerch Strait Bridge, which opened in 2018. Russia right now relies almost entirely on railroads for the logistics, especially since we saw what a dog's breakfast their truck fleet was when they tried to advance on Kiev from Belarus, and the Crimean rail line over the Kerch Strait is the most important for their advance into the Donbas.


If the Kerch Strait Bridge was destroyed or at least severely damaged to make rail travel impossible (and care was taken to kill railroad workers trying to repair the bridge via drones, etc.), then the Russians cannot quickly bring up new soldiers, fuel, food, equipment and armaments, and light and heavy ammunition to the front. If their big guns do not have enough ammunition on hand to fire upon the Ukrainians or their tanks enough fuel to roll over their lines forward, the Russians are dead because without their prized artillery or tanks, Russia's regular ground forces seem to be about as good as Iraq's were in 1990.

Bottom line: Destroy the Kerch Bridge before Winter, the Russian Army dies in Ukraine. And if the Ukrainians are able to turn around and kill enough Russians in Ukraine, just from a point of sheer demographic decline that Russia is undergoing, the Russians will never be able to threaten a major land war in Europe again for the next two quarters of this century. They just do not have enough young men to send to die to do so. Or even enough healthy middle-aged men for that matter.
 
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It appears that if the Ukrainians have any chance of "winning" (i.e., retaking the Donbas), it would be to cut the Russian resupply arteries. Apparently, the most notable and strategically significant chokepoint the Russians have is the gigantic rail line that runs from Russian onto the Crimean Peninsula known as the Kerch Strait Bridge, which opened in 2018. Russia right now relies almost entirely on railroads for the logistics, especially since we saw what a dog's breakfast their truck fleet was when they tried to advance on Kiev from Belarus, and the Crimean rail line over the Kerch Strait is the most important for their advance into the Donbas.


If the Kerch Strait Bridge was destroyed or at least severely damaged to make rail travel impossible (and care was taken to kill railroad workers trying to repair the bridge via drones, etc.), then the Russians cannot quickly bring up new soldiers, fuel, food, equipment and armaments, and light and heavy ammunition to the front. If their big guns do not have enough ammunition on hand to fire upon the Ukrainians or their tanks enough fuel to roll over their lines forward, the Russians are dead because without their prized artillery or tanks, Russia's regular ground forces seem to be about as good as Iraq's were in 1990.

Bottom line: Destroy the Kerch Bridge before Winter, the Russian Army dies in Ukraine. And if the Ukrainians are able to turn around and kill enough Russians in Ukraine, just from a point of sheer demographic decline that Russia is undergoing, the Russians will never be able to threaten a major land war in Europe again for the next two quarters of this century. They just do not have enough young men to send to die to do so. Or even enough healthy middle-aged men for that matter.
1. The Kerch Bridge is no longer the only connection between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, supplies can still be moved via Melitopool.
2. Russia obviously knows this hence why they have numerous SAMS guarding it. That's why Ukraine's not even bothering to try.
 

Troop levels in the Baltic States to be beefed up.
 
1. The Kerch Bridge is no longer the only connection between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, supplies can still be moved via Melitopool.


Correct. The seizure of Mariupol and the estabilshment of a land connection between Russia and Kherson reduces the vitality of the Kerch Bridge.
 
I don't know why you consume Russian propaganda. They constantly lie about everything.
Every step of the way, the media you are consuming has been proven wrong. Over and over you have to ignore what took place the week before because the week before you said it was false and then it ends up true. You ignore being wrong over and over.
 
Every step of the way, the media you are consuming has been proven wrong. Over and over you have to ignore what took place the week before because the week before you said it was false and then it ends up true. You ignore being wrong over and over.

While you on the other hand drink Russia Kool Aid as if it were fine wine while refusing repeatedly to cite your sources.
 
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1. The Kerch Bridge is no longer the only connection between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, supplies can still be moved via Melitopool.
It would still be symbolic if Ukraine was able to destroy the Kerch Bridge. It would show that Russia is losing it's mojo in Ukraine & that the Ukrainian forces are stronger.
 
It appears that if the Ukrainians have any chance of "winning" (i.e., retaking the Donbas), it would be to cut the Russian resupply arteries. Apparently, the most notable and strategically significant chokepoint the Russians have is the gigantic rail line that runs from Russian onto the Crimean Peninsula known as the Kerch Strait Bridge, which opened in 2018. Russia right now relies almost entirely on railroads for the logistics, especially since we saw what a dog's breakfast their truck fleet was when they tried to advance on Kiev from Belarus, and the Crimean rail line over the Kerch Strait is the most important for their advance into the Donbas.


If the Kerch Strait Bridge was destroyed or at least severely damaged to make rail travel impossible (and care was taken to kill railroad workers trying to repair the bridge via drones, etc.), then the Russians cannot quickly bring up new soldiers, fuel, food, equipment and armaments, and light and heavy ammunition to the front. If their big guns do not have enough ammunition on hand to fire upon the Ukrainians or their tanks enough fuel to roll over their lines forward, the Russians are dead because without their prized artillery or tanks, Russia's regular ground forces seem to be about as good as Iraq's were in 1990.

Bottom line: Destroy the Kerch Bridge before Winter, the Russian Army dies in Ukraine. And if the Ukrainians are able to turn around and kill enough Russians in Ukraine, just from a point of sheer demographic decline that Russia is undergoing, the Russians will never be able to threaten a major land war in Europe again for the next two quarters of this century. They just do not have enough young men to send to die to do so. Or even enough healthy middle-aged men for that matter.

Felis... The above would principally impact Crimea and southern Ukraine, but not Donbas. The 11 mile long Crimea Bridge consists of 2 traffic lanes in each direction and 2 train tracks. It was constructed by Stroygazmontazh, which is owned by Putin childhood crony Arkady Rotenberg (70). Rotenberg used cheap cement (to increase his profits) and some structural cement pilings are already chipping away. The bridge was designed so that there is only one location where cargo vessels have the height/width clearances to travel from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov and vice versa. The Russians strictly control this choke-point and sometimes block it entirely with with an empty cargo ship moored lengthwise. Rendering this structure useless could be doable with artillery if UKR forces reached southern Kherson oblast. In lieu of that, air attacks or underwater demolition teams could bring down sections of the bridge.

The arched bridge is where Russia controls which cargo ships can enter the Sea of Azov. The Ukraine ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk lie on the Sea of Azov.

Here an empty Russian cargo ship is blocking the only way in and out of the Sea of Azov.....

1-1.jpg


For perspective......

iu
 
It would still be symbolic if Ukraine was able to destroy the Kerch Bridge. It would show that Russia is losing it's mojo in Ukraine & that the Ukrainian forces are stronger.

Oh, but he said that it was impossible, based on nothing but his own imagination and ignorance, so he must be right.
 
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