[W:1607] ***2022 General Election Thread***

[Chomsky]

BOOM! TX-34 flipped back to the DNC...

Hah! Maybe they've had enough of Abbott's hijinks!

 

[Ethel2]

They removed the filibuster requirement on approving presidential appointments a long time ago.

I wasn’t sure if that only pertained to sc justices.
So if the republicans win the senate there will be a lot of judicial vacancies.

 

[upsideguy]

Right now, the rule is that filibustering is only allowed on federal judges not at the level of the Supreme Court.
Also, with a 50-50 Senate, there was no filibustering at all.
Finally, any Senator (Democratic or Republican) can place what's called a "Hold" on the nominee if they have serious objections. Rand Paul (R-KY) did this a number of times.

I don't think that is true. Wasn't that the change in the filibuster on judges what Harry Reid did? If we had the filibuster rule than how did Trump get all of his non-qualified appointments across the finish line? How was Biden able to appoint more judges than even Trump? You may be correct, but the outcomes we had with lots of federal judge appointments suggests that it only takes a majority.

 

[Anthony60]

For the most part I am seeing the amazing ability of Americans to vote against their own self-interests.

Prime example of that in New York. Voting for people that have done nothing, and will do nothing, about crime. The Democrat party strategy was to tell people crime didn't exist, not that they would lock criminals up.

 

[Median Voter]

Fetterman's gonna win. Oz is basically out of votes, and still trailing while Fetterman has a couple batches in the suburbs and Philly

 

[reinaert]

Prime example of that in New York. Voting for people that have done nothing, and will do nothing, about crime. The Democrat party strategy was to tell people crime didn't exist, not that they would lock criminals up.

New Yorkers know the difference between teevee 'crime' and actual dangerous neighborhoods.

 

[Chomsky]

Georgia is in more predictable territory now, walker is ahead but still not above 50%, however he is keeping his lead, but at the same time it is less than 1% difference, meaning it could still go either way.

Nased off previous elections I doubt either will leave with a strong majority at this point, rather a small lead or possibly a runoff.

I called run-off from the get-go, and I'm sticking to my guns!

 

[Ethel2]

Nonsense.

It’s a good idea though

 

[reinaert]

The GOP has clearly misread abortion's economic component.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

And depending on the state, third-party candidates cause runoffs.

That was what happened in Georgia two years ago and is why we can see a repeat this year.

 

[Median Voter]

Seems more like a red ripple than a wave tbh.

 

[Ethel2]

Fetterman's gonna win. Oz is basically out of votes, and still trailing while Fetterman has a couple batches in the suburbs and Philly

He has to break 50%.

 

[Cordelier]

Fetterman's gonna win. Oz is basically out of votes, and still trailing while Fetterman has a couple batches in the suburbs and Philly

That makes Shapiro's win doubly important. If Fetterman's health goes south the last thing you'd want is Mastriano picking his replacement.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

I don't think that is true. Wasn't that the change in the filibuster on judges what Harry Reid did? If we had the filibuster rule than how did Trump get all of his non-qualified appointments across the finish line? How was Biden able to appoint more judges than even Trump? You may be correct, but the outcomes we had with lots of federal judge appointments suggests that it only takes a majority.

Okay ... I think we're conflating two things. The de jure rules vs. the de facto rules. The de jure rules are that I'm right, depending on which party is in charge and what rules are in place. The de facto rules are that you're right. Remember, every time a party comes into power, they can change whatever internal Senate rules they want. The 50/50 Senate simply kept the rules that the Republicans already had in place, which was no filibustering. But I don't believe that was ever made du jure, just that McConnell said they would do it.

 

[reinaert]

Kaptur survived her gerrymander.

 

[Napoleon]

The GOP has clearly misread abortion's economic component.

There’s no red wave. There’s no post-Dobbs slaughterhouse either. Republicans will probably take the House but I’m not sure about the Senate.

 

[poweRob]

Janet Mills beat Paul LePage for Maine Gov.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Hassan should not have won this cycle. Yet, she did here in NH.

Of course she should have won this cycle. Thanks to everyone who voted for her.

 

[reinaert]

There’s no red wave. There’s no post-Dobbs slaughterhouse either. Republicans will probably take the House but I’m not sure about the Senate.

The reference more specifically to all the ballot issues that went against them.

 

[Ethel2]

Looks like Az polling was WAY off as Hobbs and Kelly are both up by huge percentages. Those two races will be double digit wins for Democrats when polling had GOP candidates ahead.

That’s what happens when you look at FoxNoNews and Trafalgar polls

 

[Chomsky]

Looks like Az polling was WAY off as Hobbs and Kelly are both up by huge percentages. Those two races will be double digit wins for Democrats when polling had GOP candidates ahead.

That also blows away the theory that Republicans/Trump-supporters under-poll. In this case they over-polled!

Also, I just argued in this thread that I saw AZ as a Red Lean, not Bellwether. Now, I might have to reconsider.

 

[Median Voter]

That makes Shapiro's win doubly important. If Fetterman's health goes south the last thing you'd want is Mastriano picking his replacement.

ABC already called it for Shapiro.

 

[Anthony60]

New Yorkers know the difference between teevee 'crime' and actual dangerous neighborhoods.

Right, sure.

 

[reinaert]

Of course she should have won this cycle. Thanks to everyone who voted for her.

Sununu would have beaten her, but the NH GOP has been Murphied and Baldassaroed, so he sat out an embarrassing primary defeat, counting on Inds to split their tickets.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Don Bacon (R-NE) in some trouble.
What's kind of interesting in re: Fox News/Trafalgar is there were a ton of polls released by both of them that showed the Democratic candidates winning. It also was very odd that the candidates themselves were sponsoring polls that had them losing, sometimes by double digits.