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understanding Libya

Masterhawk

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Libya is notorious for its unrest. As you all know, Libya was ruled by Gadaffi until 2011 when he was toppled with American assistance and the country fell into chaos. However, there are a few parts of the story which are not so well known.

After the fall of Gadaffi, the country experienced brief turbulence until a transitional government was established. This government was controlled by the General National Congress. In early 2014, The Council of Deputies was formed to take the place of the GNC; the latter did not want to give up power, resulting in 2 governments of Libya. Several armed groups backed the GNC and formed the LIbyan Shield which took libya's capital, Tripoli, forcing the CoD to relocate to Toburuk. Meanwhile, there was a 3rd faction of jihadists. Speaking of which, Isis took advantage of the unrest and took Derna along with a string of other towns. Benghazi was contested between al queda and the CoD. In mid 2015, Isis lost derna to a rival group of jihadists but they moved on to secure Sirte.

In december 2015, the 2 rival governments agreed to a ceasefire in effort for the UN to help form a unity government. Now, the 2 governemnts are focusing efforts on driving out Isis.

Situation in libya as of June 1 2016
Libyan_Civil_War.svg.jpg

Green represents the Libyan Shield/GNC, rep represents the toboruk government, grey represents Isis, white represents, other jihadists, yellow represents local militias, tan represents the turangs, and blue represents the Petroleum Facilities Guard

The Turangs are a nomadic people commonly found in the saharan desert who often prefer autonomy over the arabian governments. The Petroleum Facilities Guard was formed to protect Libya's oil assets but have been accused of selling oil to Isis.
 

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Libya is notorious for its unrest. As you all know, Libya was ruled by Gadaffi until 2011 when he was toppled with American assistance and the country fell into chaos. However, there are a few parts of the story which are not so well known.

After the fall of Gadaffi, the country experienced brief turbulence until a transitional government was established. This government was controlled by the General National Congress. In early 2014, The Council of Deputies was formed to take the place of the GNC; the latter did not want to give up power, resulting in 2 governments of Libya. Several armed groups backed the GNC and formed the LIbyan Shield which took libya's capital, Tripoli, forcing the CoD to relocate to Toburuk. Meanwhile, there was a 3rd faction of jihadists. Speaking of which, Isis took advantage of the unrest and took Derna along with a string of other towns. Benghazi was contested between al queda and the CoD. In mid 2015, Isis lost derna to a rival group of jihadists but they moved on to secure Sirte.

In december 2015, the 2 rival governments agreed to a ceasefire in effort for the UN to help form a unity government. Now, the 2 governemnts are focusing efforts on driving out Isis.

Situation in libya as of June 1 2016
View attachment 67202110

Green represents the Libyan Shield/GNC, rep represents the toboruk government, grey represents Isis, white represents, other jihadists, yellow represents local militias, tan represents the turangs, and blue represents the Petroleum Facilities Guard

The Turangs are a nomadic people commonly found in the saharan desert who often prefer autonomy over the arabian governments. The Petroleum Facilities Guard was formed to protect Libya's oil assets but have been accused of selling oil to Isis.

You seem to have ignored any reference to the CIA's General Haftar from Langley, Virginia. Also, what areas does the CIA control?
 

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Gadaffi was a great man who kept all the competing tribes together, but the US with its lap dog the CIA destroyed this country, as it has done with other Middle Eastern countries
 

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Since this posting of this thread, Isis and the PFG have lost a significant amount of ground to the GNC/Libya Shield:
This shows the situation as of June 10, 2016
Libyan_Civil_War.svg.jpg
It is quite possible that in another 10 days that Isis will be completely driven out of Libya.
 
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Masterhawk

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As is visible on the Libyan map, Benghazi is contested between the now unified government and the jihadists; and it's been that way since the conflict began.
Benghazi as of June 11, 2016:
Benghazi_Conflict_Detailed_Map.svg.png
As you can see, the majority of the city is under governmental control.The white area belongs to the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries which is allied with Al Queda. Only a small part of Benghazi actually belongs to Isis (dark grey). The 2 sections divided by a zigzagging road was actually gained since June 7 (the last time the map was updated).
 

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Since this posting of this thread, Isis and the PFG have lost a significant amount of ground to the GNC/Libya Shield:
This shows the situation as of June 10, 2016
View attachment 67202590
It is quite possible that in another 10 days that Isis will be completely driven out of Libya.

I would seriously doubt this. One of the issues that simple colors on a map cause one to overlook is relative ability to control. ISIL may lose their flagship franchise in terms of it's control of Surt / overt control of territory, but much of that "red" space to the south is effectively ungoverned.
 

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Masterhawk

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I would seriously doubt this. One of the issues that simple colors on a map cause one to overlook is relative ability to control. ISIL may lose their flagship franchise in terms of it's control of Surt / overt control of territory, but much of that "red" space to the south is effectively ungoverned.

Ok, I was being a bit optimistic at the time while looking at the amazing gains from Isis. I guess we all keep forgetting that cities are easier to defend than open space with a few houses here and there. The yellow areas are governed by the Turang while the blue is governed by other local forces.
 

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Ok, I was being a bit optimistic at the time while looking at the amazing gains from Isis. I guess we all keep forgetting that cities are easier to defend than open space with a few houses here and there. The yellow areas are governed by the Turang while the blue is governed by other local forces.

:lol: in that case, I would just go ahead and color the entire map blue.


Cities are easier to defend, true. But Upper Niger, Southern Libya.... it is a lot of uncontrolled expanse. Even the Tuareg control only where they are. If you are looking for the lowest-pressure place for them to flee to... :shrug: Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt aren't exactly welcoming, and North is the ocean. South is the way to go.
 

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As you can tell by this map, Isis is on its last legs in Libya as it is slowly losing control of its only remaining stronghold in Libya:
Libyan_Civil_War.svg.jpg

In Benghazi, the shura council lost a bunch of territory (white section in the south) since June but Isis still has its small chunk along the coastline
Benghazi_Conflict_Detailed_Map.svg.jpg
 

Andalublue

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much of that "red" space to the south is effectively ungoverned.

It's also effectively unpopulated. It's the middle of the Sahara, comprised of two provinces: Kufra and Murzuq, total population c. 120,000 i.e. about one tenth the population of the single city of Benghazi.
 

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As you can tell by this map, Isis is on its last legs in Libya as it is slowly losing control of its only remaining stronghold in Libya:
View attachment 67206697

In Benghazi, the shura council lost a bunch of territory (white section in the south) since June but Isis still has its small chunk along the coastline
View attachment 67206699
I think you and I have a very different idea of what "last legs" mean. Yeah, the "GNA" has managed to push IS his on Sirt down, and who likely officially clear the city, but the network will survive, and the GNA will not be able to exert enough control over territory to root them out.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk
 

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How about a link to this goddam map?

Debate Politics is the worst place I have ever seen for people posting unlinked information.

Be nice if the administrators would try to do something about it.


As you can tell by this map, Isis is on its last legs in Libya as it is slowly losing control of its only remaining stronghold in Libya:
View attachment 67206697

In Benghazi, the shura council lost a bunch of territory (white section in the south) since June but Isis still has its small chunk along the coastline
View attachment 67206699
 

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The US government had nothing to do with starting the revolution against Gadaffi. We had a good thing going. American businesses were moving back into the country. We weren't expecting it and we didn't want it. Now, after the revolution was under way it certainly became a different ballgame.
 

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What are the prospects of a decent government coming out of all this?
 

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I was stationed with the US Air Force near Tripoli in Libya in 1953. Is there anyone here who remembers Libya back then? Is there anyone here who remembers 1953?

I was a Radio Operator on the crew of a C-119 cargo plane with the 580th ARC Wing, stationed at Wheelus Field near Tripoli. The entire Wing moved from Idaho to our new base at Wheelus in Sep, 1952. There wasn't room for us all at Wheelus, so a couple of thousand of us lived in a "tent city" of 8-man tents for 14 months. It was fun and the best time of my life. I made frequent flights to many countries in Europe and North Africa. I liked the Libyans, distrusted the Egyptians and despised the Saudis. And of course Germany was our favorite. The German Frauleins were wonderful.

I remember a small Italian tavern near the gate of our tent-city compound, called "Al Oasi di Tagiura." Tagiura was a small Arab village near Tripoli. There was also a small Arab/Italian restaurant on the beach nearby where some of us often ate breakfast. A big plate of poached eggs and thinly sliced steak, with coffee and juice, cost about 70 cents. I wish I could go back to see it now, but of course it is all gone.
r
 
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Masterhawk

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As of January 14 2017, Isis has lost Libya, Sirte has been taken by the coalition and they have also withdrawn from Benghazi; the latter has former Isis territory replaced with another jihadist group.

Libyan_Civil_War.svg.jpg

Benghazi_Conflict_Detailed_Map.svg.jpg

Although Sultan is still under full control of a jihadist group, that is the only city under full jihadist control. Even Derna is mostly under coalition hands.

Derna_Conflict_Detailed_Map.jpg

hopefully the factions don't start fighting each other after the jihadists are gone.
 

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Nice thread..I had a really nice blog going on Libya ( Civil war 2014 ~ Present) but the server crashed..

Anyways..I still see no real support for the GNA outside of maybe the Misrata Brigades( the GNA's boots who liberated Sirte)-with the help of US bombing.
and it looks like Gen Hiftar is consolidating power in all of Bengazi now..

My question: who aside from Hiftar could unify Libya? -and can he even do it? so far as I know his power base is still just in the east.
 

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The southern portion of Benghazi is completely under coalition control

All that's left is that strip in the north west

Benghazi_Conflict_Detailed_Map.svg.jpg

There is still speculation over whether the new government is here to stay or whether the country will fall part again
 
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