U.S. economy grew 2.1 percent in 2022, but recession fears linger

[Threegoofs]

Thank you very much! @RedFishBlueFish @Threegoofs for your responses.

Interesting......as to me the term of Strategic Reserves doesn't match the intent.

1) Selling for a net profit is good, but I would figure those net profits would be used exclusively to re buy at a lower price, since its a strategic reserve separate from the General Funds/Expenses.
2) Comingling funds generally is not good... Right? Do as I say not as I do???/
3) This is an SBF ponzi, robbing Peter to pay Paul, you take the profits from here (SPR) to deposit in a general fund thats drowning in debt.

oh well anyways....

Back on topic... 2.1 GDP growth...... but does that account for 7-9% inflation that means we are net negative of 5-7%? Our growth is negative of the inflation.....is that a win?

GDP accounts for inflation.

 

[Exactice]

GDP accounts for inflation.

Sorry that was kinda of a comment in jest.

Obvious a net profit accounts for inflation.

but its a positive number to feel good.

If my business grew 2.1% that is not something I would be bragging about. Secondly, when you say it "accounts" thats a loaded statement. because the actual cost dollars is still negative to everything else.

You can grow 2.1% personally, but when everything else cost 5-7% more on your expenses you are still negative.

our GDP also has to increase to sell to everyone else to account for inflation so again sure....its accounted for, but we should be at least be breaking even with the inflation, which we are not. The cost of goods increased dramatically cutting into the net profits and every other expense is much great than 2.1% "growth"


Again if I had a sales team and someone was bragging about 2.1% growth....yeah Id tell them "Try harder" LOL.

 

[Kushinator]

I get what you are saying, however the idea of the SPR is not as a speculation tool, or an investment, but rather a strategic resource. Meaning, the sale of an asset has to be replaced and thus the profit or loss should be determined by the return to status quo, not from a LIFO accounting method.

The SPR has been in decline since it's peak in 2010. I agree there is going to be a restock in the future, and i would assume the replacement price is going to be less than $96/bbl.

 

[Kushinator]

Sorry that was kinda of a comment in jest.

Obvious a net profit accounts for inflation.

but its a positive number to feel good.

If my business grew 2.1% that is not something I would be bragging about. Secondly, when you say it "accounts" thats a loaded statement. because the actual cost dollars is still negative to everything else.

You can grow 2.1% personally, but when everything else cost 5-7% more on your expenses you are still negative.

our GDP also has to increase to sell to everyone else to account for inflation so again sure....its accounted for, but we should be at least be breaking even with the inflation, which we are not. The cost of goods increased dramatically cutting into the net profits and every other expense is much great than 2.1% "growth"


Again if I had a sales team and someone was bragging about 2.1% growth....yeah Id tell them "Try harder" LOL.

I don't know what's going on in this post: but inflation isn't calculated by the CPI when it comes to adjustment of economic output.

 

[bave]

The SPR has been in decline since it's peak in 2010. I agree there is going to be a restock in the future, and i would assume the replacement price is going to be less than $96/bbl.

It is certainly possible, I guess it simply depends on your timeframe.

 

[pocket aces]

Mark it we will have a recession this year, food and energy is still crippling.

You all said that last year and the year before. I understand it’s your only hope, but pretty shitty thing to want.

 

[Exactice]

I don't know what's going on in this post: but inflation isn't calculated by the CPI when it comes to adjustment of economic output.

Sorry My Friend again the comment got sidetracked.

Yet, we are not talking about CPI specifically, we are talking about GDP as a whole.

BUT, GDP is generally the final product right?

So the cost of goods and services to include the current CPI, to the final output = the GDP.

When I stated that 2.1% growth is not a win to me, considering the inflation is at 7-9%. to me its a net negative of 5-7%

The other poster mentioned that the GDP includes inflation, implying that the 7-9% is baked into the 2.1% growth. which for the final product yes as "GDP" but the true affect generally still means we are profiting less than the average cost of living.


The worst part to me. The CPI has been a moving target and they keep moving the Goal post to make the CPI lower than what it really is. the real Consumer Price Index if taking EVERYTHING into account would be closer to 20+% in my useless opinion, not 4%.....

 

[JasperL]

Back on topic... 2.1 GDP growth...... but does that account for 7-9% inflation that means we are net negative of 5-7%? Our growth is negative of the inflation.....is that a win?

Inflation isn't that high, and yes, the country reported positive inflation adjusted GDP growth

Real Gross Domestic Product

View the annual rate of economic output, or the inflation-adjusted value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[Kushinator]

The other poster mentioned that the GDP includes inflation, implying that the 7-9% is baked into the 2.1% growth. which for the final product yes as "GDP" but the true affect generally still means we are profiting less than the average cost of living.

GDP deflator is used to adjust for inflation.

The worst part to me. The CPI has been a moving target and they keep moving the Goal post to make the CPI lower than what it really is. the real Consumer Price Index if taking EVERYTHING into account would be closer to 20+% in my useless opinion, not 4%.....

The CPI is used to measure price changes in a consumer goods basket. Personal consumption expenditures (core) price index is what economists generally look to for inflation.

 

[Exactice]

Inflation isn't that high, and yes, the country reported positive inflation adjusted GDP growth

Real Gross Domestic Product

View the annual rate of economic output, or the inflation-adjusted value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

fred.stlouisfed.org

7% inflation is not that bad true, But I have a hard time seeing the everyday cost of living going up only 7%.

I dont think the inflation metric is accurate or at the least Honest.

 

[Exactice]

GDP deflator is used to adjust for inflation.

The CPI is used to measure price changes in a consumer goods basket. Personal consumption expenditures (core) price index is what economists generally look to for inflation.

Thank you! the problem is the CPI has been choosing what to consider in the basket. Its been a floating basket with no consistency.


The Core index, surely more informative.

The sad thing to me is its driven by "consumption" which in my opinion many are very ignorant or irresponsible in that consumption.

I am guilty of such and in no way standing on a soap box more just recognizing I have an issue and realized....damn....... we spend our money on a lot of useless crap........ I have been trimming the fat and paying all my debts down as fast as possible...... others... not so much they keep spending...more and more and more.....scary stuff.

 

[RedFishBlueFish]

Sorry My Friend again the comment got sidetracked.

Yet, we are not talking about CPI specifically, we are talking about GDP as a whole.

BUT, GDP is generally the final product right?

So the cost of goods and services to include the current CPI, to the final output = the GDP.

When I stated that 2.1% growth is not a win to me, considering the inflation is at 7-9%. to me its a net negative of 5-7%

The other poster mentioned that the GDP includes inflation, implying that the 7-9% is baked into the 2.1% growth. which for the final product yes as "GDP" but the true affect generally still means we are profiting less than the average cost of living.


The worst part to me. The CPI has been a moving target and they keep moving the Goal post to make the CPI lower than what it really is. the real Consumer Price Index if taking EVERYTHING into account would be closer to 20+% in my useless opinion, not 4%.....

A real GDP of 2.9% (say 2-3%) and an inflation rate of 6.5% (say 5-7%) is not a win for our economy, as you said, even though the real GDP is adjusted for inflation. If it was a win for our economy the Federal Reserve would not be pushing up interest rates at an extremely fast pace to lower inflation and perhaps pushing the country into a recession and almost certainly raising the unemployment rate.

The Fed raised interest rates 7 times in 2022 elevating the Federal Funds rate from 0.25% to 4.5% IN ONE YEAR. The Fed does not do this if they think the economy is just hunky-dory.

BTW, I'm not a fan of attributing the state of the economy to any president. Sure, presidents can affect the economy, but generally those effects are small. (Of course they can affect the economy by doing something like starting a war.)

 

[CLAX1911]

The post you chose to quote and reply to was in reference to @CLAX1911 's comment on the economy, where a poorly informed poster made the claim

To which @MTAtech informed him that the economy is growing by showing him a snapshot of employment growth exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

Depends... demographics are an important consideration:

What we are witnessing is a trend of growth in the population of people 65+, 75+, 85+, etc....

It hasn't returned to the trajectory it was on it had a steady growth until the pandemic and it's recovered to almost that level of growth.

It's still recovering your president doesn't walk on water in fact it's because the supreme Court bitch slapped his stupid ass that it has continued to recover

 

[CLAX1911]

Nope. And the chances of one happening are getting less and less globally. I'm so sorry.

The worst fears for global growth may be subsiding

Bolstering such prospects are China’s reopening after pandemic lockdowns, evidence of slowing inflation, and the assured views of some senior European officials that their economies won’t suffer recessions

www.moneycontrol.com

Yeah we were in a recession. The growth of the economy still hasn't returned to the trajectory it was on before the pandemic

 

[Exactice]

A real GDP of 2.9% (say 2-3%) and an inflation rate of 6.5% (say 5-7%) is not a win for our economy, as you said, even though the real GDP is adjusted for inflation. If it was a win for our economy the Federal Reserve would not be pushing up interest rates at an extremely fast pace to lower inflation and perhaps pushing the country into a recession and almost certainly raising the unemployment rate.

The Fed raised interest rates 7 times in 2022 elevating the Federal Funds rate from 0.25% to 4.5% IN ONE YEAR. The Fed does not do this if they think the economy is just hunky-dory.

BTW, I'm not a fan of attributing the state of the economy to any president. Sure, presidents can affect the economy, but generally those effects are small. (Of course they can affect the economy by doing something like starting a war.)

Agreed with much of your statement, more so I do agree that blaming a president for something is the pot calling the kettle black.

We have our own free will to make our own financial choices. The rich get rich regardless who is in power. They may get more rich or less rich but they still generally make sound financial decisions.

Having COVID funds did not mean you had to take them nor rely on them, which many chose to. They also chose not to work (Not all, but I knew a handful of people that chose to stay home)

Having moratoriums or forbearance did not mean you had to stop paying.

Fact is. Stuff got really expensive due to low interest rates, High demand (FOMO) and people with more money/cash than they knew what to do with because they were told they didnt have to pay their other responsibilities.

they got use to spending money that was not theirs and now its catching up.

Lots of writing on the wall for predatory financial practices and I watched.... as it slowly and steadily ate away at peoples morals and savings......

 

[rahl]

Yeah we were in a recession

No we weren’t.

. The growth of the economy still hasn't returned to the trajectory it was on before the pandemic

Yes it has

 

[Metric Mouse]

The jobless claims report was good too. Looks like it just may be headed for a soft landing and avoiding recession. Let's hope the GOP doesn't screw it up.

If there's no recession, Powell is going to be the most legendary Fed chair in history.

 

[Kushinator]

The growth of the economy still hasn't returned to the trajectory it was on before the pandemic

Why lie?

 

[CLAX1911]

Why lie?

To many graphs with different information.

Why lie? To convince you apparently.