Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts (1 Viewer)

[Craig234]

My layman's guess is that Trump will win in November.

But by inauguration day the whole country will be over Trump.

By whole country I mean, like Trump's approval will drop to below 33%

Hopefully not. But yes, it's very likely a second trump term would end in even more disaster, with him viewed by even more people as the worst president in history. But why do you think the same things that have kept his cult around 40% his whole presidency would change by inauguration day?

 

[Pound4abrown]

Your turn to be honest then. What "norms" What "institutions"?

All one has to do, for starters is look at the 4 IG's fired in the last 6wks.
I mean, I could go on, but why bother, you don't care. And it shows.

 

[Pound4abrown]

My layman's guess is that Trump will win in November.

But by inauguration day the whole country will be over Trump.


By whole country I mean, like Trump's approval will drop to below 33%

Intriguing, what could happen between Nov 2020 where he wins and Jan 2021 where he is at less than 33%?

 

[Dayton3]

All one has to do, for starters is look at the 4 IG's fired in the last 6wks.
I mean, I could go on, but why bother, you don't care. And it shows.

When did Inspector Generals become the be all end all of American norms and institutions?

 

[Rawley]

But not in 2020... Far too many people have undone millenia worth of evolution to become troglodyte like thinkers.

Do you really think Hillary's 'half the country are deplorables' will work better in 2020?

 

[Rawley]

Man, so true. So true, I mean there is absolutely no daylight between sensible precautions and hiding under a bed.
Ab so lut ley none.

For those who's lives are riven by fear, there isn't

 

[Pound4abrown]

When you look at it objectively, Trump is in deep deep trouble. He continues to have net negative approval ratings. The Electoral college currently projects Biden with at least 183 ec votes and Trump at 125. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, Maine, Penn, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida all lean Biden's way. Virginia is moving closer and closer to a safe state for Biden.

The Senate polls also look problematic. Kelly is leaning McSally by double digits. Peters is leading James in Michigan. Gideon is leading Collins in Maine.

When political power is being shifted toward the Democrats, that's a bad sign for Trump and the Republicans.

But on the other hand, the election is in November and things could turn in favor of the GOP. Back in 2016, Trump was losing big time and he switched to Kellyanne Conway and Trump's numbers went in the positive direction, and we saw a late break toward him.

She is. And Susan Collins, is, as she has always been, absent. She has not held a townhall here in 20 years.
I don't expect that to change. I think she feels that though her numbers aren't as good as in past years, she will eek it out.
Typically she is declared the winner within seconds of the polls closing.
Should be interesting.

 

[Pound4abrown]

When did Inspector Generals become the be all end all of American norms and institutions?

They aren't be all, end all. As I said that is just on example.
But when you fire one and then say you didn't even know who he was or what he did wrong. That isn't normal.
And then come to find out all four were investigating wrong-doing of his admin, you know, as they are supposed to do. (Not just with the admin, but all parties involved), it is most definitely not normal to fire them. It looks corrupt. It smells of corruption.

 

[Pound4abrown]

For those who's lives are riven by fear, there isn't

Right. Because like I said there is no gray, in this world you have imagined, it is all just hiding under a bed or Freedom!

 

[Rawley]

Right. Because like I said there is no gray, in this world you have imagined, it is all just hiding under a bed or Freedom!

Nope. But odds are high that the woman who is screaming at my wife and me while walking our dogs without masks that she hopes we DIE, is one that believes the country will be unrecognizable if the President is reelected.

 

[The AntiDonald]

A lot of people know that if Trump gets voted out, the lockdowns will become permanent, with the support of the Federal government.

A lot of people don't know that. It's up to the governors. I am all for taking it slow as I don't want to get sick. That's what a lot of people know.

This is what everyone knows: 92,000+ people dead. 1.5M+ people infected. 2 months lost while Trump was playing his numbers game and lying to everyone.

What people know is we are witnessing the worst leadership this country has ever seen. The US has more deaths and cases by 3 times the worst country. I wonder why?

 

[Rawley]

A lot of people don't know that. It's up to the governors. I am all for taking it slow as I don't want to get sick. That's what a lot of people know.

This is what everyone knows: 92,000+ people dead. 1.5M+ people infected. 2 months lost while Trump was playing his numbers game and lying to everyone.

What people know is we are witnessing the worst leadership this country has ever seen. The US has more deaths and cases by 3 times the worst country. I wonder why?

Uh, because we have a population of 330,000,000?

 

[Dayton3]

A lot of people don't know that. It's up to the governors. I am all for taking it slow as I don't want to get sick. That's what a lot of people know.

This is what everyone knows: 92,000+ people dead. 1.5M+ people infected. 2 months lost while Trump was playing his numbers game and lying to everyone.

What people know is we are witnessing the worst leadership this country has ever seen. The US has more deaths and cases by 3 times the worst country. I wonder why?

1) Partially because we're the third largest country on Earth in terms of population.
2) Partially because any reasonable person is not going to believe the Chinese figures for their number of dead.
3) Partially because the U.S. isn't a dictatorship like China and can't simply lock people in their homes until they die.
4) Partially because the U.S. doesn't have the social cohesion and community trust like South Korea where the government can simply tell people they should social distance themselves and they will do so without question or coercion.

 

[Schism]

With social media widespread, disinformation rampant...

Disinformation?

Vote like your life depends on it. It does.

No it doesn't.

As does your healthcare insurance, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.

Republicans will try their very best to terminate all of the above safety nets.

^^ disinformation, in the flesh

 

[Moderate Right]

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

I'll caution Democrat voters to not become complacent. Betting odds still favor Donald Trump and the GOP holding the Senate.

It's important that you vote on November 3rd. Register your family members and your friends. If the GOP retains the WH/Senate in 2020, America will become unrecognizable.

Vote for your Democrat candidate for US Senate on November 3[sup]rd[/sup]​

1. You cannot compare this economy to other bad economies because this economy was destroyed on purpose to fight a pandemic.

2. The economy will be much better come election time.

 

[Perotista]

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

I'll caution Democrat voters to not become complacent. Betting odds still favor Donald Trump and the GOP holding the Senate.

It's important that you vote on November 3rd. Register your family members and your friends. If the GOP retains the WH/Senate in 2020, America will become unrecognizable.

Vote for your Democrat candidate for US Senate on November 3[sup]rd[/sup]​

At this point in time, I really have to wonder about the betting odds. Where are they getting their information to come up with odds that Trump will win again and the GOP retain the senate? This has me flummoxed. Of course the numbers I'm looking at are for today, if the election were held today, not in November. Perhaps those who figure the odds know a bunch more than me or even what the cold, hard numbers show.

Everything had to go perfect in 2016 for Trump to win, I do mean perfect. Perfect as in 100%, 99% wouldn't do. The earth, moon, sun, the planets, the stars and even galaxies all had to align perfectly. One slight deviation, Trump loses.

The biggest reason why Trump probably will lose this time is that Hillary Clinton isn't his opponent. Biden if he learned anything from 2016 should know not to ignore the so called blue wall states. Take them for granted. Biden should know that letting Trump both out work him and out campaign him like Hillary did, that invites a loss.

Of course, I'm expecting that Biden has learned from history. If he hasn't, then perhaps he deserves to lose. If he repeats the same mistakes, oh well, so be it. As for the senate, Arizona, Colorado and Maine look like sure pickups for the Democrats, although they'll lose Alabama. They need one more. Montana and North Carolina are pure tossups, The GOP has a very slight advantage in the two Georgia races and Kentucky, old Mitch is probably a 50-50 shot.

Those are what the numbers as of today are showing. Perhaps I ought to take up betting.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Hopefully not. But yes, it's very likely a second trump term would end in even more disaster, with him viewed by even more people as the worst president in history. But why do you think the same things that have kept his cult around 40% his whole presidency would change by inauguration day?

I'm not sure exactly.

It's more an Ian Malcolm sort of thing.

I was one of the folks who felt Trump would publicly **** a mutt if he were faced with a real crisis.
Trump has some skills, but accommodating and understanding new information doesn't seem to be among them.
So, it's natural Trump would make some decisions based on stupid **** instead of w/e reasonable criteria the decision should be made on.
Case in point, the gist of Trump's reactions to the pandemic are about political threats to Trump and concerns about Trump's ratings.

The pandemic has not gone away. Contagion is at least partially a function of the behavior of many, many people.
It's probably difficult to predict like the weather.
So, there'll be plenty of more opportunities for Trump to screw up on the pandemic front.
Some of those potential ****-ups could create multiple mountains of dead Americans in a matter of months.
Hopefully, we won't have anything so awful as that.
But, Trump has indicated that his concerns about political interests currently outweigh his concerns over Americans' health.
Trump may make decisions about risking Americans based on how Trump believes pandemics work.
He may make decisions about risking Americans based on how he thinks it will help his political goals.


Also, if another crisis or urgent situation erupts in the meantime, Jared Kushner is already too busy to handle it.
So, something will give then as well.


Trump does not have a good grip on the reins of govt because his Admin is mismanaged.
While the Admin continues to be dysfunctional it will continue to **** things up.
Regular-sized ****-ups can quickly snowball into big-ass ****-ups in a crisis.
Given a large enough number of ****-ups in a sufficiently high-stakes situation,
one of the ****-ups will eventually blow-up in the face of the ****-up who ****ed up.


I'm just guessing about the timeline.
I suspect Trumpco & the GOP are doing what they can to keep things as cool looking as they can for the election.
But bull**** only spreads so thin.
If they're budgeting their efforts, they'd be planning to let up after the election.

 

[Craig234]

Uh, because we have a population of 330,000,000?

Ya, if China had as many people as we do, they'd have just as many. No, that's not the reason.

 

[rjay]

I think that this is a bit of counting chickens, and I think that would be a very poor choice to do. Trump could easily win, if the Dems don't take that seriously, they'll blow it.

I am not convinced that Trump will get blamed for the economy.

First of all, world-wide it has been all but shut down. This is not a uniquely American experience.
Secondly, the economy would have been all but shut down regardless of who The American President was and what party he/she belonged to.

I think Trump had a golden opportunity handed to him by this pandemic. He was given a chance to show real leadership and guide the U.S. through this crisis.

He was not up to the task, and will now likely lose in the Fall. Had he been able to lead, even if it was from mid-March on, he would have been very difficult to beat in November.

 

[Ikari]

I am not convinced that Trump will get blamed for the economy.

First of all, world-wide it has been all but shut down. This is not a uniquely American experience.
Secondly, the economy would have been all but shut down regardless of who The American President was and what party he/she belonged to.

I think Trump had a golden opportunity handed to him by this pandemic. He was given a chance to show real leadership and guide the U.S. through this crisis.

He was not up to the task, and will now likely lose in the Fall. Had he been able to lead, even if it was from mid-March on, he would have been very difficult to beat in November.

I don't think he'll get blamed for the economy, but all he had going was the economy.

However, I agree with you that he was given a golden opportunity to show true Presidential leadership in this crisis and completely fumbled. And that I think may come back on him.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Intriguing, what could happen between Nov 2020 where he wins and Jan 2021 where he is at less than 33%?

Who knows?

my guesses

• the pandemic will still be in play in the US come spring 2021
• the Trump Admin will maintain its current level of functionality
• some other arbitrary urgent matter or crisis will occur

The Admin looks to be at capacity for functionality.
They're already dropping balls.
The balls are just becoming more meaningful as we progress.
They're gonna drop Grandma's disco ball if they keep on this way. They're basically cutting their own whuppin-switches at this point.


The hardcore woo-woos who are current Trumpco customers will remain — the folks who mash all their other favorite CTs into their Trumpco brand BS
But once being a Trumpco customer is no longer edgy and rewarding,
some portion of the free trial subscribers will wander off.
The hardcore woo-woos' little brother or nephew will grow out of it even if the woo-woo doesn't.


I think the GOP and Trumpco can keep most of the wheels on until after the election.
Cornered rats and all that.

 

[Plasmaball]

A lot of people know that if Trump gets voted out, the lockdowns will become permanent, with the support of the Federal government.

What a load of fantasy porn. You people get dumber by the minute with these conspiracies

 

[Plasmaball]

1. You cannot compare this economy to other bad economies because this economy was destroyed on purpose to fight a pandemic.

2. The economy will be much better come election time.

Ah it was done on purpose..more stupid

 

[Rogue Valley]

Disinformation?



No it doesn't.



^^ disinformation, in the flesh

Where were you for the last four years. Dormant?

 

[Rogue Valley]

1. You cannot compare this economy to other bad economies because this economy was destroyed on purpose to fight a pandemic.

2. The economy will be much better come election time.

By November? :lamo

Most economists say the fall of 2021. But you keep on believing in The Donald.