https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/us/politics/trump-address-border-visit.html
Tuesday night 9 pm eastern time. This announcement imo will be the end of the shutdown and to declare a national emergency.
I can see that Mr. Trump might do just that, but that raises a question in my mind as to HOW he is going to "end the shutdown".
You see, in order to "end the shutdown" he is going to have to find some way of actually paying all of the employees and funding the full operations of the parts of the US government that are currently "running on empty".
In order to do that he is going to have to either
- order Congress to pass legislation authorizing the payment of money as he directs;
- order the payment of money that Congress has not authorized and which does not LEGALLY exist to be paid out; or
- authorize himself to rule by decree.
In any of those cases, Mr. Trump would face a more than slightly negative reaction from Congress.
In the first case, Congress might well decide that it is an EQUAL branch of the government of the United States of America and simply refuse to pass that legislation. The odds that an attempt to order Congress to pass legislation would result in Mr. Trump being impeached, convicted, booted out of office, and banned (for life) from any public office are high. However, if that (impeachment
et al) didn't happen and/or Mr. Trump "dissolved Congress" (to forestall an impeachment process), then Mr. Trump would have to fall back on Option 2 or Option 3.
In the second case, the money simply isn't, legally, there unless Mr. Trump just prints it - and that would wreck havoc on the US economy if the US mint complied. The odds that that would result in Mr. Trump being impeached, convicted, booted out of office, and banned (for life) from any public office are higher. If, however, the US mint refused to comply, or Congress showed signs of attempting to institute impeachment proceedings, Mr. Trump would have to fall back on Option 3.
In the third case, Mr. Trump is guaranteeing his own impeachment, conviction, expulsion from office, and lifetime ban on holding any public office IF Congress is allowed to reconvene. To prevent that, Mr. Trump would have to assume dictatorial powers and, if that happened, then the United States of America would be in flames within days.
HOWEVER, if Mr. Trump limits himself to simply declaring a national emergency and ordering the US military to build "The Wall" he might get away with it (at least until the American public realizes that he has just [effectively]
DEfunded the US military by the amount that it will take to build "The Wall" and by doing so rendered the US military LESS capable of "defending the United States of America"). The defence industry jobs that would be lost as a result of the US military being (effectively)
DEfunded by $25Bn (and the secondary jobs that vanish as a result of those jobs being lost) would likely have a VERY adverse effect on the American economy, so that would mean that the Option 2 results would likely kick in.