During his tenure at Stratfor, George Friedman oversaw the publication of the company’s recurring Decade Forecasts, which aimed to predict long-term global trends based on structural factors such as geography, demography, and national interest.[10]
2005–2015: This forecast reiterated the view that the U.S. would maintain dominance due to its demographic advantages and immigration absorption, though it underestimated the political challenges that mass migration would later pose.[15] Stratfor foresaw the decline of the European Union, predicting it would collapse by 2015. Although the EU faced significant institutional strain, including during the Eurozone crisis, it did not disband. Russia was expected to pursue a geopolitical reversal, including reabsorbing influence over former Soviet republics. While the prediction anticipated increasing Russian assertiveness, major developments like the 2008 war in Georgia and the lead-up to Crimea’s annexation were not specifically forecast.[16] On China, Stratfor doubled down on earlier warnings, asserting that growth was unsustainable and forecasting social fragmentation and economic decline. Contrary to these claims, China continued to grow and solidify its global position.[17]