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You have to read the early works of climate modeling where they describe some of the basic assumptions.
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1997/1997_Hansen_ha01900k.pdf
So they assume that the forcing, the forced energy imbalance is roughly equal to a 2% increase in solar output.
but then later say that the top of the atmosphere forced imbalance from doubling the CO2 level is 2.6W/m2,
Lets consider what their 2% increase in solar output would look like.
If the Earth absorbs 240 W/m2, adding 2% would add 4.8W/m2 of imbalance at the top of the atmosphere,
but they have already said that the 2XCO2 TOA imbalance is 2.6W/m2, which is it?
Are they looking at the energy imbalance of the total system, or some predicted level where we cannot measure,
that is not relevant to the energy in the entire system?
No, all these complex models are initialized from a starting place, and plenty of assumptions are used there and within the run.
There is a reason that Hurricane path projections have an ever larger cone of uncertainty, the errors are cumulative!
Even a tiny error in assumed total net feedbacks, could throw a model off by a large factor after many cycles,
and the 3C range (1.5 to 4.5C) is mostly from our poor understand of how clouds interact with radiation.
On to man made fuels!
There is no such thing as a free lunch! No one expects storing energy as hydrocarbons to be free!
And man made hydrocarbons do not need to be made from pre existing materials, they can be made from hydrogen and carbon atoms.
The Navy sources the carbon from sea water based CO2, whereas others use atmospheric CO2, or try to harvest from other emission sites.
There are some high level articles which describe some of the processes,
Power to liquids and power to gas: closing the carbon cycle - EE Publishers
but the reality is that we can make ole fins from hydrogen and carbon, and everyday modern refineries
convert ole fins into liquid fuels that are in demand, mixing and matching to make seasonal blends.
The source of those ole fins, need not be oil, coal, natural gas, or any type of naturally occurring hydrocarbon.
Sunfire seems to think they can get 80% efficiency, while the Navy is claiming 60%.
Power-To-X: Sunfire reports successful test run of co-electrolysis system of >500 hours; e-Crude demo targeted - Green Car Congress
It is not a matter of if we can make carbon neutral transport fuels from scratch, but the cost of goods sold of that fuel.
Using the Navy's more realistic 60% efficiency number, a gallon of gasoline contains ~33Kwh of energy,
If our storage efficiency is 60%, then it would take 55Kwh to create that gallon of gasoline.
At a wholesale electricity price of $.05 per Kwh, that is $2.75 per gallon, costs.
A barrel of oil can make about 35 gallons of fuel, so the current cost is ~ equal to $96 a barrel oil.
If Sunfire can realize their 80% predicted efficiency, the break even price would be $72 a barrel.
If oil get above that price, the refinery could have greater profits by making their own feedstock, than buying oil.
In the early phases they could capture CO2 emissions from other units in their operations to simplify the CO2 collection.
All the world's leading scientific societies are acknowledging the urgent need for action. Like for example these 31 American scientific organizations.
Thirty-one top scientific societies speak with one voice on global climate change – The Ecological Society of America
There even federal agencies like for example N0AA under Trump have to acknowledge the urgent need for action.
Climate change impacts | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Then it comes to vehicles 50 percent of new cars sales are for example pure electric in Norway. While manmade fuel is still on a experimental stage for the Navy even with the American military have much higher fuel costs because of high logistic costs.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2...d-battery-autos-least-dented-covid-19-crisis/
While then it comes to for example air planes carbon neutral fuels are just one of many options. That for example Airbus are investing a lot in hydrogen power for their planes.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-...rbus-eyes-hydrogen-power-airliner-next-decade