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Trump approval ratings shoot up 5 points after SOTU

Mycroft said:
Do you have a platinum membership to Rasmussen? I don't. That's why I don't know anything about their methodology or their sampling data.

Can you give the that info?
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Rasmussen is the only large polling company that I am aware of that uses a survey audience of LIKELY VOTERS to determine presidential popularity polls. I know of no other polling company that does that.Everyone else simply uses a representative cross section of the AMERICAN PEOPLE because that is what is being measured ---- not an election but support among the American people for their president.

Until Rasmussen stops that biased method - their polls on this subject will always be outliers.
 
haymarket said:
Rasmussen is the only large polling company that I am aware of that uses a survey audience of LIKELY VOTERS to determine presidential popularity polls. I know of no other polling company that does that.Everyone else simply uses a representative cross section of the AMERICAN PEOPLE because that is what is being measured ---- not an election but support among the American people for their president.

Until Rasmussen stops that biased method - their polls on this subject will always be outliers.
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So...you can't give me any info on their methodology or sampling data. Okay.

In my opinion, whether questions are asked of likely voters or just plain people is irrelevant unless we know the demographics of whomever they ask their questions. Oversampling or undersampling by party affiliation of just plain people is just as misleading as oversampling or undersampling likely voters. Without that information, I have nothing to judge the honesty or accuracy of the poll.
 
Thus far his approval has gone up by .3 points since the SotU, but truth be told I expect it to rise back up to 44.6%. While Republicans were dejected that he was beaten in the shutdown battle, I always said they would remember that they hate Liberals, Liberals hate Trump, and therefore Trump would regain the support he lost.

Trump's support is 44.6%. If it drops down to 40% his real support is 44.6%. If his support goes up to 42% his real support is 44.6%. If his support drops down to 37% his real support is 44.6%.

Do I need to keep going or should I give this dead horse a couple more kicks?
 
I've encountered several people this week, whom I thought I knew fairly well, who are reacting to Trump's
SOTU like they just discovered the man for the first time. As in, "Man, that guy rocks!"
 
Mycroft said:
So...you can't give me any info on their methodology or sampling data. Okay.
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Are you blind or just enable to read certain words? I gave you what you requested.

this is directly from Rasmussen itself

Methodology - Rasmussen Reports®

For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters.
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and from the Daily Presidential Approval poll methodology



The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove.
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And that flaw in their methodology is their downfall making their results consistently an outlier.
 
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haymarket said:
Are you blind or just enable to read certain words? I gave you what you requested.

this is directly from Rasmussen itself

Methodology - Rasmussen Reports®



and from the Daily Presidential Approval poll methodology





And that flaw in their methodology is their downfall making their results consistently an outlier.
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LOL!!

Okay. They give their methodology. But they don't give their raw numbers...and especially their sampling data.

As I said before, likely votors...everyday Americans...doesn't matter if they cook their sampling data or their weighting methods. Without knowing that, it might be bogus...it might not.

But that's better than the Reuters poll who DOES give their sampling data and they are clearly a bogus poll.

The overarching point, though, is that these polls are not reliable. None of them.
 
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Mycroft said:
LOL!!

Okay. They give their methodology. But they don't give their raw numbers...and especially their sampling data.

As I said before, likely votors...everyday Americans...doesn't matter if they cook their sampling data or their weighting methods. Without knowing that, it might be bogus...it might not.

But that's better than the Reuters poll who DOES give their sampling data and they are clearly a bogus poll.

The overarching point, though, is that these polls are not reliable. None of them.
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You demanded to know what was wrong about the Rasmussen methodology and I provided it for you.

You want to reject all polling - fine with me. Just realize the flaw in Rasmussen compared to everybody else.
 
KLATTU said:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®
:shock:
Hmmm I didn't watch it, but it must have been good?
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Five?

Five points?

Ah.....I wouldn't be celebrating. After the huge drop in support because of his shut down his annual "showcase" of policy ad progress should have given him more than a measly 5%.

As soon as he goes back to ripping the Democrats, his words of "bi partisanship" will be as hollow as every other comment, promise or policy. He reached no one he hasn't had support from before; the "pivot" from a war footing to calling for peace will be seen as the sham it was./

That will last days....not weeks.
 
haymarket said:
You demanded to know what was wrong about the Rasmussen methodology and I provided it for you.

You want to reject all polling - fine with me. Just realize the flaw in Rasmussen compared to everybody else.
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shrug...

If you want to compare one flawed poll with another flawed poll, that's fine with me.
 
Mycroft said:
shrug...

If you want to compare one flawed poll with another flawed poll, that's fine with me.
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The Rasmussen poll is UNIQUE in its flaw that has been repeatedly pointed out to you.
 
Tanngrisnir said:
Biggest drops in Trump's net approval in January:

New Hampshire (-11 pts)
South Dakota (-9 pts)
Utah (-9 pts)
Nebraksa (-8 pts)
Virginia (-7 pts)
North Dakota (-5 pts)
Maine (-5 pts)
Minnesota (-5 pts)
Indiana (-5 pts)
Missouri (-5 pts)
Texas (-5 pts)

https://morningconsult.com/2019/02/07/trumps-popularity-slumps-to-record-low-in-january/
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Trump sure won a lot of those states where he is now losing ground. That is a good sign that some citizens have awakened.
 
Casca XV said:
specify the threat?
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"If there's going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be war and investigations."

And a very savvy threat it was. Just vague enough to avoid responsibility but clear enough to clearly get his message across.

Kinda mafia like.
 
CaughtInThe said:
"If there's going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be war and investigations."

And a very savvy threat it was. Just vague enough to avoid responsibility but clear enough to clearly get his message across.

Kinda mafia like.
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No. that is just Leftist Democrats with nothing good to offer and losing on every front grasping at anything they can. Claiming he is "racist" for eating vanilla instead of chocolate ice cream is at about the same level of BS.
 
Casca XV said:
No. that is just Leftist Democrats with nothing good to offer and losing on every front grasping at anything they can. Claiming he is "racist" for eating vanilla instead of chocolate ice cream is at about the same level of BS.
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Yeah, because we all know that if a local police chief said there was not gonna be peace if investigations on him weren't dropped it wouldn't be a threat.
 
apdst said:
Were Rasmussen's inaccurate when they polled Obama?
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figure it out and report back.

as for Rasmussen and Trump, my opinion is that since they are pulling numbers out of their asses, they should just put him at ninety percent approval. his tiger beat fan club won't question it, and most of the rest of us have dismissed Rasmussen outright anyway.
 
Helix said:
figure it out and report back.

as for Rasmussen and Trump, my opinion is that since they are pulling numbers out of their asses, they should just put him at ninety percent approval. his tiger beat fan club won't question it, and most of the rest of us have dismissed Rasmussen outright anyway.
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Yeah, that's what I thought. :lamo
 
Bullseye said:
Fingers in the ears, chanting "nah, nah, nah, nah" nothing new here. ^^^^
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If you read my follow up posts you will see its quite the opposite of what you claimed.
 
KLATTU said:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®
:shock:
Hmmm I didn't watch it, but it must have been good?
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It was really good. The president made an excellent point. He said that before El Paso added a wall it had one of the highest crime rates. But the crime rate dropped dramatically after the wall was erected.

That's a great point. The problem is that it's not even remotely true.

But so what? What's wrong with our government using lies to convince us? You're OK with it, right?
 
haymarket said:
If you read my follow up posts you will see its quite the opposite of what you claimed.
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But, you said "nothing more needs to be said".
 
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