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Trump 47

Can trump win in 2024?

  • Yes

    Votes: 30 26.8%

  • No

    Votes: 82 73.2%
  • Total voters
    112
99percenter said:
Is it possible?
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I'm going with no. Four years is a lot of time for Biden to expose all the bullshit you guys didn't hear about. It's also a long time to get over this sunk cost fallacy thinking that has Trumpists currently in knots, frantically defending and polishing the Turd. I'm sure they'll enjoy their vacation from that, and won't be eager to venture back into the fray.

I mean, there will be some lifelong devotees, I'm sure, but not enough to get him back in the WH. Plus...in four years he'll be the same age as Biden now, and Trumpists said Biden was too old, sooo....I'm sure they'll remain consistent in their appraisal when Trump hits 78 in 2024. ;)
 
OlNate said:
I'm going with no. Four years is a lot of time for Biden to expose all the bullshit you guys didn't hear about. It's also a long time to get over this sunk cost fallacy thinking that has Trumpists currently in knots, frantically defending and polishing the Turd. I'm sure they'll enjoy their vacation from that, and won't be eager to venture back into the fray.

I mean, there will be some lifelong devotees, I'm sure, but not enough to get him back in the WH. Plus...in four years he'll be the same age as Biden now, and Trumpists said Biden was too old, sooo....I'm sure they'll remain consistent in their appraisal when Trump hits 78 in 2024. ;)
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GOP changes their mind a lot in 4 years. Remember election year SC appointments?
 
Continued Trump propaganda and victim Trump having his election "stolen" from him will keep the fire for a while under the 72 million+ voters. Others in the meantime will likely become complacent. So I voted yes, POSSIBLE.
 
There are forces in the GOP who want someone else or themselves to be the nominee. It will be interesting to watch them navigate their way through Trump world.
 
99percenter said:
Is it possible?
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I don't think he will run in 2024. He will act like he will, but I don't think he actually will run. He has been in significant physical and mental decline and that is only going to get worse as he gets older. I actually think that Tucker Carlson will be the GOP frontrunner in 2024.
 
99percenter said:
GOP changes their mind a lot in 4 years. Remember election year SC appointments?
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And how much they claim to be against war in the Middle East. Two presidents ago, they were shaming the hell out of anyone who didn't support it.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
I don't think he will run in 2024. He will act like he will, but I don't think he actually will run. He has been in significant physical and mental decline and that is only going to get worse as he gets older. I actually think that Tucker Carlson will be the GOP frontrunner in 2024.
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Until ****er Carlson told a grain of truth a few days ago about how trump has no chance of winning his frivolous election lawsuits, I would have agreed with you.

The Republican base demands reactionaries, and the slightest deviation is enough for them to drum one of their own out. It's a popular myth that the Democratic base has a monopoly on eating their own.
 
Phys251 said:
Until ****er Carlson told a grain of truth a few days ago about how trump has no chance of winning his frivolous election lawsuits, I would have agreed with you.

The Republican base demands reactionaries, and the slightest deviation is enough for them to drum one of their own out. It's a popular myth that the Democratic base has a monopoly on eating their own.
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I think Carlson throwing Trump under the bus was a strategic move on his part. No one likes a loser, even Trump's base.
 
While anything is possible, I voted no. Both Trump and COVID-19 will have disappeared from the news long before 2024.
 
Trump is going to have a hard time sharing and then exiting the stage in the next 50+ days.

He’s got to be livid about all the positive press Biden and his cabinet pick have been getting.

I don’t think we have fallen far enough that Tucker Carlson is a serious candidate.
 
By then we will have done away with the electoral college, reformed the senate and fixed the Supreme Court

Trump won't stand a chance!
 
99percenter said:
Is it possible?
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Possible, but very, very unlikely.

First, he has a number of criminal and civil actions that he must defend once he leaves office. He managed to stall the discovery aspects of many of these because he was president. Virtually all of them address his character flaws. His name, which is already pretty muddy, is going to be buried in mud for much of the next four years.
Second, he is not in particularly good health.
Third, he was fundamentally an embarrasment to the Republican party, and did not uphold their core values. He had them in bondage for 4 years (though they let themselves be there) They are going to be happy to be rid of him.
Fourth, he left kicking and screaming this time around (he certainly did not put America first), why would anyone invite him back?
 
99percenter said:
GOP changes their mind a lot in 4 years. Remember election year SC appointments?
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Yeah, I know...but it's hard to predict, given how unpredictable the last four years have been. I guess I'm choosing to remain optimistic. I have no doubt the GOP will once again secure power at some point, if not 2024...I just doubt it'll be Trump at the helm. You've got to believe, irrespective of the political theatre we see on the TV, that there are a lot of old Republicans privately thankful that the shit show appears to be over.
 
99percenter said:
Is it possible?
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No, independents have turned on Trump. Perhaps independents who make up approximately 40% of the electorate, but only 26% of those who voted in 2020 have always disliked Trump. In 2016 Trump won independents 46-42 over Hillary Clinton with 12% voting third party, against both Trump and Clinton. That's the highest percentage voting third party since Ross Perot. Even in 2016, you did have 54% of all independent vote against Trump. Either for Hillary Clinton or against both major party candidates. 70% of independents disliked Hillary while 57% disliked Trump enabling Trump to win the independent vote with a small plurality.

2020, Biden won the independent vote 54-41. Is it a coincidence that the 54% who voted for Biden matches the total independent vote against Trump in 2016. Only this time there was no Hillary Clinton on the ballot to save Trump. Why? If you go to policy, stances on issues, independents were fairly split on those. For some, against some, indifferent to the rest. But what stands out in both 2016 and 2020 is independents dislike of Trump as a person. Biden was liked as a person by independents where Hillary wasn't. Since it's Trump unique personality that these independents don't like, I don't see that changing for 2024.

For Republicans, it's time to move on. Get a fresh, younger face. Find someone who can attract the independent vote in a way Trump can't. The Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties, so winning the independent vote is a must or you're going to lose the election.
 
99percenter said:
Is it possible?
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I voted yes, because it is possible. But, I don't expect him to run, if he does, I don't know if he would win the nomination, if he wins the nomination I don't know if he would win the election. But, it is possible. To rule it out would be rather arrogant. To think his election in 2024 is a sure thing would also be arrogant.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
I don't think he will run in 2024. He will act like he will, but I don't think he actually will run. He has been in significant physical and mental decline and that is only going to get worse as he gets older. I actually think that Tucker Carlson will be the GOP frontrunner in 2024.
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Agree, except on Carlson, thinking it will be someone in politics already. Tucker makes plenty spouting his nonsense and I doubt he would actually be interested, the job really isn't all that attractive to most.
 
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