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I don’t disagree with this.
In terms of whether Cahaly is accurate concerning Trump voters, we’ll find out soon enough.
If you want to prove that all polling firms use a certain methodology, whether it be asking for the youngest member of the household, or using a consistent formula to determine who is a likely voter, you cannot simply cite Gallup and/or Pew.Gallup and Pew are both very forthcoming with their methodologies, and tend to be at the top of Google results when I search for links to educate you.
If you want to prove that all polling firms use a certain methodology, whether it be asking for the youngest member of the household, or using a consistent formula to determine who is a likely voter, you cannot simply cite Gallup and/or Pew.
Gallup/Pew do not manage other polling firms.
I'll do what I want. Thanks.This thread is about Trafalgar. Nice try.
And do not shorten my screen name.
They seem to be an outlier though. Never concentrate on one polling organization. All other pollsters have Trump trailing Biden in Michigan. So when you average them out (trafalgar included), Biden still has a pretty decent margin in all those states. Michigan looks like it's going to Biden easily.Trafalgar, as of the morning, shows Trump up 2 points in Florida, up 3 points in Arizona, and up 2 points in Michigan.
Again, it will be interesting to find out if Cahaly’s shorter surveys are more accurate in gauging the electorate.
We’ll know soon enough.
If you want to prove that all polling firms use a certain methodology, whether it be asking for the youngest member of the household, or using a consistent formula to determine who is a likely voter, you cannot simply cite Gallup and/or Pew.
We’ll see soon enough if this statement is true.Most firms who conduct polling DO post their methodology. People who conduct shitty polls don't. It's that simple.
Trafalgar is a polling organization that does polls for Conservative PACs.Trafalgar chief pollster predicts Trump victory: Polls ‘predominantly missing the hidden vote’
Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a “hidden vote” Cahaly says is predominantl…thehill.com
"Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.
Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.
“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes."
Why does Cahaly claim that he is reaching an accurate slice of America, while most other pollsters are not?
https://radio.foxnews.com/2020/10/2...-explains-the-methodology-behind-their-polls/
"Well, we're kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you're washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody's got time to stop what they're doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You're not getting regular people. You're getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We're about polling average people.
We’ll see soon enough if this statement is true.
Both sides are guilty of this.Trump supporters don't believe any polls... unless the poll says Trump will win. Funny how that works.
Oh Reuben. You must be getting full of all them cherries you are picking.We’ll see soon enough if this statement is true.
CNN, ABC, and Quinnipiac are not “the most objective folks around” either lol.Trafalgar is a polling organization that does polls for Conservative PACs.
Not exactly the most objective folks around, which is why you need to use them, right, Reuben?
That’s why averaging and weighting polls is the best way to interpret them.CNN, ABC, and Quinnipiac are not “the most objective folks around” either lol.
Election Day is just over a week away. We’ll find out who is accurate, and who is not.
Chill, Beefheart.Oh Reuben. You must be getting full of all them cherries you are picking.
Well, we’ve got just over a week to go. And then all of this will be resolved.That’s why averaging and weighting polls is the best way to interpret them.
And when you do that, Biden is +9 and winning by good margins in WI, PA, MI, NC,AZ and NV, which is more than enough for a definitive win.
Boy, you sure get defensive when people talk to you the same way you talk to them Reuben...Chill, Beefheart.
The thread is about Trafalgar.
If this bothers you, there are plenty of other threads to choose from.
We’ll know soon enough if Cahaly is accurate.
I don't laugh at any one polling firm. I average them all together, which is why I follow RCP and 538. Averages and predictions based on those averages, which seems like a good way to follow the polls. You pick the one or two firms that shows Trump slightly ahead and use that as your gospel. That's the difference between you and I.Both sides are guilty of this.
Biden supporters laugh at Trafalgar and Rasmussen, and assume Quinnipiac and ABC are correct.
We’ll find out soon enough.
The thread is about Trafalgar, specifically.I don't laugh at any one polling firm. I average them all together, which is why I follow RCP and 538. Averages and predictions based on those averages, which seems like a good way to follow the polls. You pick the one or two firms that shows Trump slightly ahead and use that as your gospel. That's the difference between you and I.
um, yeah we do...they provide their method in each poll.We don't know that about any polls.
Sure. Would love for you to do thatThe thread is about Trafalgar, specifically.
Would you like me to create another thread and list RCP averages?
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