- Joined
- Sep 28, 2011
- Messages
- 15,193
- Reaction score
- 11,430
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Conservative
Unfortunately, the sensationist headlines and understandable joy over Ukraine's continued success at tactical level are but short-term perceptions that ignores a long-term reality: if allied strategy (assuming they have one) does not change, Ukraine will lose, and Putin will win. And It's fast becoming a matter of "when" not "if".
Here's why.
Putin has already occupied major portions of the Donbas and most of Ukraine's coastline. As predicted, he has ceased his drive on Kiev, taking defensive positions and sending some units back for resupply. For the time being he is satisfied with the ground gained near Kiev. In going to the defense here, his casualty rate declines while his units rest and refit. In the meantime, he is transferring some of those freed up units in Byelorussia to the east and is preparing for another major offensive. Because Ukraine has insufficient air cover and no deep strike ability it cannot exploit Russia's current vulnerability by launching it's own strategic counter-offensive. Any overly exposed attempt by Ukrainian to do so and the Russian missile, cruise missile, and air based firepower would wreck havoc on Ukraine's forces. So Putin will continue to have the initiative.
Putin's next goal will be to more broadly expand his occupied territory in the east and perhaps in the south. He feels no need to negotiate and has said so, "The time is not ripe", meaning he wants some more of Ukraine before he is willing to bargain seriously. More importantly the war is now a question of sustainment. Even if Russia does not gain substantial additional ground, it is only a matter of time before Ukraine runs out of SAMs, rocket batteries, artillery, fuel, aircraft, and manpower. While Ukraine can continue to capture some enemy vehicles and ammunition, it remains a fact that Russia produces its own equipment and can replenish nearly at will. Stalemate does not cease the remorseless attrition of Ukrainians limited military resources.
And no, sanctions or social unrest won't change that. Polls show Putin at a 5 year high of approval, at 83%. The vast majority believe Russia is heading in the right direction, embracing every lie issued by the State media. Commentators constantly tell the public that any treaty would be the end of Russia. And while sanctions may eventually bite hard and after a few years create disenchantment with the war it would be too late to save Ukraine - moreover, as Russia has all energy resources, mineral resources, and food sources it needs to sustain itself, how effective can sanctions truly be?
Apparently it serves Washington's and Nato's interest to hear the screams of a dying nation, to provide just enough for the conflict to continue until every city is laid flat in Ukraine. But never do so much to as to enable Ukraine to win.
Heavens no, not that!
Here's why.
Putin has already occupied major portions of the Donbas and most of Ukraine's coastline. As predicted, he has ceased his drive on Kiev, taking defensive positions and sending some units back for resupply. For the time being he is satisfied with the ground gained near Kiev. In going to the defense here, his casualty rate declines while his units rest and refit. In the meantime, he is transferring some of those freed up units in Byelorussia to the east and is preparing for another major offensive. Because Ukraine has insufficient air cover and no deep strike ability it cannot exploit Russia's current vulnerability by launching it's own strategic counter-offensive. Any overly exposed attempt by Ukrainian to do so and the Russian missile, cruise missile, and air based firepower would wreck havoc on Ukraine's forces. So Putin will continue to have the initiative.
Putin's next goal will be to more broadly expand his occupied territory in the east and perhaps in the south. He feels no need to negotiate and has said so, "The time is not ripe", meaning he wants some more of Ukraine before he is willing to bargain seriously. More importantly the war is now a question of sustainment. Even if Russia does not gain substantial additional ground, it is only a matter of time before Ukraine runs out of SAMs, rocket batteries, artillery, fuel, aircraft, and manpower. While Ukraine can continue to capture some enemy vehicles and ammunition, it remains a fact that Russia produces its own equipment and can replenish nearly at will. Stalemate does not cease the remorseless attrition of Ukrainians limited military resources.
And no, sanctions or social unrest won't change that. Polls show Putin at a 5 year high of approval, at 83%. The vast majority believe Russia is heading in the right direction, embracing every lie issued by the State media. Commentators constantly tell the public that any treaty would be the end of Russia. And while sanctions may eventually bite hard and after a few years create disenchantment with the war it would be too late to save Ukraine - moreover, as Russia has all energy resources, mineral resources, and food sources it needs to sustain itself, how effective can sanctions truly be?
Apparently it serves Washington's and Nato's interest to hear the screams of a dying nation, to provide just enough for the conflict to continue until every city is laid flat in Ukraine. But never do so much to as to enable Ukraine to win.
Heavens no, not that!