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The Screams of a Dying Nation - Nato's Non Plan to Save Ukraine.

Apparently it serves Washington's and Nato's interest to hear the screams of a dying nation, to provide just enough for the conflict to continue until every city is laid flat in Ukraine. But never do so much to as to enable Ukraine to win.

I agree that the West is not doing enough quickly enough. The West is also allowing Putin to dictate the terms of this war and draw arbitrary red lines that cripple the Ukraine military. Ukraine is the victim here, not the agressor. We are missing the opportunity to ensure Ukrainian victory if we don't provide what they need, urgently, within the next 2-3 weeks. Russian forces will learn, regroup, and transition to the ability to grind Ukraine to defeat within the next two months if we fail.
 
I agree that the West is not doing enough quickly enough. The West is also allowing Putin to dictate the terms of this war and draw arbitrary red lines that cripple the Ukraine military. Ukraine is the victim here, not the agressor. We are missing the opportunity to ensure Ukrainian victory if we don't provide what they need, urgently, within the next 2-3 weeks. Russian forces will learn, regroup, and transition to the ability to grind Ukraine to defeat within the next two months if we fail.
Oh look, zero evidence of me “support Stalin”. Cowardly running away from your accusations, as per usual.
 
I agree with you and share your concern, time is running out. Ukraine loosing is not an option for the west. China moving troops to Solomon Islands. The planed referendum in breakaway regions of Georgia to vote regarding belonging to Russia (No way of guaranteeing it will be conducted properly) China and Russia talking about the new world order. The opposition in Belarus, development in Serbia, Turkey, Macedonia, Moldavia ...... and so on. There are so much more which hangs on if Russia wins or gets the upper hand in the Ukraine or if the Ukraine do. Support and means for the Ukraine needs to be such that the Ukraine not only have a chance of winning, but that they do win.

Thanks for reply...glad to read someone who doesn't give a knee jerk NOOOO... to any initiative beyond what has been done.

There is no substitute for victory, and any war conducted on the assumption that the enemy will get tired of flattening your cities and killing your civilians and then go home is relying on a fool's strategy. The US tried that in Vietnam, hoping that they didn't actually have to win outright, but to simply kill enough of the invaders so they would tire and sue for peace. Hence, they used body counts as a "measure" of progress.

If a country has a path to victory, its goal should be to pursue it...not tolerate a meat grinding stalemate until it runs out of men and material. That means one must destroy enemy formations, take and secure ground, and then drive beaten forces beyond the borders. Putin, with a beaten army, would then have to risk Ukrainians advancing further or agree to peace.

As it is now, Ukraine is on a clock and that clock is running out. This has been the perfect opportunity for a counter offensive, and it will likely run out soon. It is very urgent the west give up on fussing over what is "defensive" or "offensive", or fretting over providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs. Should Putin see the serious commitment of the west to replace lost Ukrainian equipment, including tanks, tank destroyers, and medium range ballistic missiles (and planes) he will realize there is no path to victory.

Currently he does not see that.
 
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I agree that the West is not doing enough quickly enough.
We're not?

So how come all the western military command (NATO) & political elite are showing restraint and are assisting indirectly at a magnitude never seen before? They don't have enough schooling, or are they like Chamberlain? How come they don't see your solution?

My family (older people) is at the Romanian/Ukrainian border, you have no idea the amount of equipment that we as NATO members are sending Ukraine. Millions of refugees are taking shelter in Poland, and Slovakia with the help of the EU which they should. It is a tragedy.

and your solution is what?
escalate the matter, risk direct conflict, and even though nuclear weapons will not be used -> do you have any idea what a refugee crisis of that magnitude will do to the EU and NATO alliance? It will destroy us within.

Good on Stoltenberg, Biden (with 1 mistake), Macron, Bennett, Olaf Scholz, and Erdogan for trying to resolve this. Aside from Erdogan which I still consider an authoritarian many on that list do merit some recognition.

and once the war will end with a deal, then Zelensky will have to deal with the fanatics that will still want to fight. He will have so many applications for the Foreign Legion that he would not know what to do with them. But hey I do respect, an idealist that puts his money where his mouth is. I will be here to defend Zelensky at that time.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-10/no-fly-zone-delusion
 
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I agree that the West is not doing enough quickly enough. The West is also allowing Putin to dictate the terms of this war and draw arbitrary red lines that cripple the Ukraine military. Ukraine is the victim here, not the agressor. We are missing the opportunity to ensure Ukrainian victory if we don't provide what they need, urgently, within the next 2-3 weeks. Russian forces will learn, regroup, and transition to the ability to grind Ukraine to defeat within the next two months if we fail.


I have noticed that you do have a sober, frank appreciation of military matters in that theater. Its like you know Russia and Russians well. But I agree with you. Speed indeed is of the essence if Ukraine is to pull through. Historically, Russians have been known to bungle the opening rounds; then 'learn, regroup' as you say and re engage for the duration. But whether it will work this time around is also doubtful. When Russia prevailed in the past it was because it was always able to bring more manpower and materiel to the scrimage line. This time Nato may be able to beat the Russians in the long run in bringing more materiel to the line of scrimage. That is only my uneducated guess.
 
Thanks for reply...glad to read someone who doesn't give a knee jerk NOOOO... to any initiative beyond what has been done.

There is no substitute for victory, and any war conducted on the assumption that the enemy will get tired of flattening your cities and killing your civilians and then go home is relying on a fool's strategy. The US tried that in Vietnam, hoping that they didn't actually have to win outright, but to simply kill enough of the invaders so they would tire and sue for peace. Hence, they used body counts as a "measure" of progress.

If a country has a path to victory, its goal should be to pursue it...not tolerate a meat grinding stalemate until it runs out of men and material. That means one must destroy enemy formations, take and secure ground, and then drive beaten forces beyond the borders. Putin, with a beaten army, would then have to risk Ukrainians advancing further or agree to peace.

As it is now, Ukraine is on a clock and that clock is running out. This has been the perfect opportunity for a counter offensive, and it will likely run out soon. It is very urgent the west give up on fussing over what is "defensive" or "offensive", or fretting over providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs. Should Putin see the serious commitment of the west to replace lost Ukrainian equipment, including tanks, tank destroyers, and medium range ballistic missiles (and planes) he will realize there is no path to victory.

Currently he does not see that.
It's not about Biden. He must get Europe and NATO on board and I think that is almost impossible, not least because Europe is so much closer to the conflict. I also believe that public opinion in both Europe and the United States does not support an escalation. Unfortunately. That makes me a little worried. I think threats are the only thing that will bite on Putin.

Unfortunately, I also believe that China will do what it can to support Russia without being held accountable for it. This means that they will not supply weapons made in China that can be traced back to them, but they will provide Russia with all the spare parts and funds needed for Russia to be able to maintain and manufacture weapons. If the parts can be manufactured in China, it will be a priority. If not, China will act as an intermediary and order the parts for further transport to Russia. I have previously written about the Russian arms industry's dependence on Swedish-made spare parts and unfortunately capitalism is playing into the hands of the Russians right now. All companies, regardless of nationality, will supply their spare parts as long as they can claim that they have not knowingly violated sanctions. Money comes first. Unfortunately.

So I believe in a tactic that will not come true
  • NATO threatens Russia that if a single nuclear bomb is dropped, in Ukraine or elsewhere, it will be condidered a declaration of war against NATO. NATO will bomb Moscow, St. Petersburg and a residence on the Black Sea that does not exist in the same way as the Russians have bombed Mariupol (level cities and residence to the ground) NATO prepairs to make it a reality, in full show to Russia.
  • We in the West give Ukraine what is needed to win the war, the airplanes from Poland yes, but above all: Equipment to shoot down the Russian airplanes, bomb the ships in the Black Sea and bomb the launch pads in Russia (like Iskander)
But as I said, it is a tactic that will not become a reality, so instead we can do what we can to maximize the effects .
  • Identify the spare parts that Russia needs for its arms industry and sanction deliveries to new customers or extended deliveries to existing customers outside the EU, Australia and the USA (regardless of country of delivery) for this equipment, whether delivered directly from companies or intermediaries.
  • Make the confiscation of assets belonging to the Oligarchs and of Putin and Putin's closest and their relatives in the West a reality. I read as recently as yesterday about how Lavrov and Putin's children live luxury lives in London. We should shift the burden of proof to that those who are sanctioned need to prove they do not belong to the target group. Go "all in" in other words. The United States must simply step up. No assets have been confiscated in the US so far… Scandal indeed.
  • Give Ukraine the airplanes from Poland and as much equipment we can get away with. And foremost , we stop advertising what weapons we are supporting the Ukraine with.
 
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It's not about Biden. He must get Europe and NATO on board and I think that is almost impossible, not least because Europe is so much closer to the conflict. I also believe that public opinion in both Europe and the United States does not support an escalation. Unfortunately. That makes me a little worried. I think threats are the only thing that will bite on Putin.

When I wrote "He does not see that" I was referring to Putin, not Biden. Putin does not see a stalemate, he sees a path to Russia's victory. And that path is the relentless attrition of Ukraine's military assets at a minimum, and successful offenses in the Donbass and other areas if possible.

This is about Biden and every other European Nato leader. Leaders have to lead, they have to rise to the occasion and take their party and people by the nose and pull them to face a crisis. Putin, for all his many faults, is still a leader. He has sold the Russian people on his war and now they back him. Our leaders need a kick in the pants repeatedly, none of them rise to the level of Churchill, FDR, or Maggie Thatcher. Most of them are, at best, mediocrities.

Bye the way, the public doesn't even know what the term "escalation" means, or how it became a taboo. It's a completely useless and arbitrary term, as useless and meaningless over the obsession of offensive and defensive weapons.

Unfortunately, I also believe that China will do what it can to support Russia without being held accountable ... and unfortunately capitalism is playing into the hands of the Russians right now. All companies, regardless of nationality, will supply their spare parts as long as they can claim that they have not knowingly violated sanctions. Money comes first. Unfortunately.

So I believe in a tactic that will not come true
  • NATO threatens Russia that if a single nuclear bomb is dropped, in Ukraine or elsewhere, it will be condidered a declaration of war against NATO. NATO will bomb Moscow, St. Petersburg and a residence on the Black Sea that does not exist in the same way as the Russians have bombed Mariupol (level cities and residence to the ground)
  • We in the West give Ukraine what is needed to win the war, the airplanes from Poland yes, but above all: Equipment to shoot down the Russian airplanes, bomb the ships in the Black Sea and bomb the launch pads in Russia (like Iskander)

I'm not fully clear on some of your points, but Russia will not use nuclear weapons. It has twice issued clarifications that it will not resort to nukes unless the existence of Russia is at stake. Nothing the allies do in Ukraine will threaten Russia's existence.

There is a saying in English, "Never say never". It means don't give up, do not assume that just because the West is reluctant to do what it takes doesn't mean it won't eventually. In WW2 the United States kept procrastinating about entering the war, and when it finally did Churchill famously said "Americans will always do the right thing, but only after they have tried all the other alternatives".

I am hoping that America and Europe (etc) will soon give up trying alternatives and just do the right thing.
But as I said, it is a tactic that will not become a reality, so instead we can do what we can to maximize the effects .
  • Identify the spare parts that Russia needs for its arms industry and sanction deliveries to new customers or extended deliveries to existing customers outside the EU, Australia and the USA (regardless of country of delivery) for this equipment, whether delivered directly from companies or intermediaries.
  • Make the confiscation of assets belonging to the Oligarchs and of Putin and Putin's closest and their relatives in the West a reality. I read as recently as yesterday about how Lavrov and Putin's children live luxury lives in London. We should shift the burden of proof to that those who are sanctioned need to prove they do not belong to the target group. Go "all in" in other words. The United States must simply step up. No assets have been confiscated in the US so far… Scandal indeed.
  • Give Ukraine the airplanes from Poland and as much equipment we can get away with. And foremost , we stop advertising what weapons we are supporting the Ukraine with.

I agree with all your above points.
 
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no we are not.

No? I can find lots of videos like the ones below. We do live in a democracy and everyone is entitled to an opinion. So I will agree to disagree on this one with you.



Prior to the war:





and today this is what the Russian UK minister said:

If Britain delivers long-range artillery weapons and anti-ship systems to Ukraine, they would be "legitimate targets" for Russian forces, Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Andrei Kelin said in a published interview. on Saturday by the Russian news agency TASS, quoted by CNN.

"Any arms deliveries are destabilizing, especially those mentioned by (Ben) Wallace (British Minister of Defense). They exacerbate the situation and make it more bloody, "said Kelin.

"Apparently, these are new weapons, quite accurate. Of course, they will be legitimate targets for our armed forces if they cross the border into Ukraine, "he said.

"I feel that London's idea of what is happening in Ukraine from a military point of view is based on the bravery reports of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the Ukrainian leadership," said Andrei Kelin.


Chances of escalation = are very high. If they weren't -> NATO would be acting, but they have to think about the full picture -> or maybe soon NATO will be accused of working with Putin. They have hundreds of analysts working daily but some claim they know better from their Twitter accounts.
 
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This is true. Putin has time on his side. At some point the west will tire of the money pit that Ukraine is quickly becoming and start to pressure Ukraine to come to terms with Russia for the good of the world.
Ukraine is ten times the money pit for the Russians at it is for the west. Those Switchblade drones, Javelins, NLAWs, and Stingers cost a fraction of all those Russian tanks and the logistics and money it takes to keep them going. This is a trash take, the one on borrowed time is Putin.
 
No? I can find lots of videos like the ones below. We do live in a democracy and everyone is entitled to an opinion. So I will agree to disagree on this one with you.

Don't move the goal posts. I never said or intimated that no weapons are being given to Ukraine.

I said not enough weapons. And not always the right kind. Russia's air superiority must end for Ukraine to expel the invaders.
 
Don't move the goal posts. I never said or intimated that no weapons are being given to Ukraine.

I said not enough weapons. And not always the right kind. Russia's air superiority must end for Ukraine to expel the invaders.

If it is true that America can end this war simply by sending more weapons and it has chosen not to do so, then I no longer want to be an American.

What kind of country would give another country just enough support to lose?

Send enough to decisively define the outcome or **** off.
 
If it is true that America can end this war simply by sending more weapons and it has chosen not to do so, then I no longer want to be an American.

What kind of country would give another country just enough support to lose?

Send enough to decisively define the outcome or **** off.

The West is allowing Putin to set arbitrary red lines of what the West can do to assist its ally Ukraine. Such timidity is BS. Russia is the aggressor here, not the West.

The West is also making a mistake by continually saying what they won't do. Never voluntarily take any military options off the table.
 
We're not?

So how come all the western military command (NATO) & political elite are showing restraint and are assisting indirectly at a magnitude never seen before? They don't have enough schooling, or are they like Chamberlain? How come they don't see your solution?

My family (older people) is at the Romanian/Ukrainian border, you have no idea the amount of equipment that we as NATO members are sending Ukraine. Millions of refugees are taking shelter in Poland, and Slovakia with the help of the EU which they should. It is a tragedy.

and your solution is what?
escalate the matter, risk direct conflict, and even though nuclear weapons will not be used -> do you have any idea what a refugee crisis of that magnitude will do to the EU and NATO alliance? It will destroy us within.

Good on Stoltenberg, Biden (with 1 mistake), Macron, Bennett, Olaf Scholz, and Erdogan for trying to resolve this. Aside from Erdogan which I still consider an authoritarian many on that list do merit some recognition.

and once the war will end with a deal, then Zelensky will have to deal with the fanatics that will still want to fight. He will have so many applications for the Foreign Legion that he would not know what to do with them. But hey I do respect, an idealist that puts his money where his mouth is. I will be here to defend Zelensky at that time.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-10/no-fly-zone-delusion

The political leadership of the major countries of NATO have not been doing enough. It they had been, they would cease their reluctance and procrastination, have provided training on major weapons systems, and sent them. They would be doing what the Russians have done for years in the Donbass, supply tanks, artillery, sams, multiple rocket launchers, and every other component of a modern army to Ukraine.

No matter how much food, small arms, manpads, or helmets western nations send, Ukraine cannot win without replacements for their major equipment losses, and an increase in combat power. The excuses of various governments are endless:

"the Ukrainians don't need planes, we know what's best for them",
"we can't send "offensive" weapons, which is anything that offends Putin",
"the Ukrainians can't learn new weapons on their own"
"major weapons might "escalate" Ukraine into winning, can't have that!"

The war is in its sixth week, precious time has been lost with the glacial realization in Washington and elsewhere that Putin is in this for the long haul. Weeks that could have been spent training Ukrainians on every weapons system imaginable has been squandered.

Time to put up or shut up. Protest buttons, slogans, and the lamentations of celebrities, don't win wars. Imploring Putin to cease his savagery doesn't work. Sanctions have yet to show they work. Face reality, if you want Ukraine to win there is only one choice; ship Ukraine the arsenal of democracy, train them if need be, and unleash these brave men and women to fight for their country with proper weaponry.

Do that, in months Russia will be driven into retreat and submission.

Don't and Ukraine falls.
 
The political leadership of the major countries of NATO have not been doing enough. It they had been, they would cease their reluctance and procrastination, have provided training on major weapons systems, and sent them. They would be doing what the Russians have done for years in the Donbass, supply tanks, artillery, sams, multiple rocket launchers, and every other component of a modern army to Ukraine.

No matter how much food, small arms, manpads, or helmets western nations send, Ukraine cannot win without replacements for their major equipment losses, and an increase in combat power. The excuses of various governments are endless:

"the Ukrainians don't need planes, we know what's best for them",
"we can't send "offensive" weapons, which is anything that offends Putin",
"the Ukrainians can't learn new weapons on their own"
"major weapons might "escalate" Ukraine into winning, can't have that!"

The war is in its sixth week, precious time has been lost with the glacial realization in Washington and elsewhere that Putin is in this for the long haul. Weeks that could have been spent training Ukrainians on every weapons system imaginable has been squandered.

Time to put up or shut up. Buttons and slogans, and celebrity pleadings, don't win wars. Imploring Putin to cease his savagery doesn't work. Sanctions have yet to show they work. Face reality, if you want Ukraine to win there is only one choice; ship Ukraine the arsenal of democracy, train them if need be, and unleash these brave men and women to fight for their country.

Do that, in months Russia will be driven into retreat and submission.

Don't and Ukraine falls.

I agree that if NATO suddenly sends a massively overwhelming amount of firepower over a short period, then that could possibly be more cost effective--and generally effective--than sending just-enough-to-lose over many weeks.

I mean, it is my feeling that Russia is simply beneath much of the advanced world in many ways, including militarily, despite its expenditures, although I'd love to hear a convincing argument about how Russia is more evolved in its bombing, blasting, and its apparent subsequent need to rape.

Naturally, I'd be curious to hear the input of our former military participants.
 
I'd like to see NATO send soldiers into every Ukrainian city immediately, with Russia aware that any attack on any of those soldiers would immediately trigger Article 5--using nuclear threats against Russia for a change--and sometime during that week/month, organize an emergency meeting in which NATO would recognize Ukraine as a member, because **** Putin.

Dude is 5'7". Nobody under 5'8" is allowed to nuke the world anyway.
 
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