Wrong. McCain had little or no chance from the get-go. Palin was a HORRIBLE choice... unknown, inexperienced, unpolished, and a very poor speaker.
Ppinion is not fact, and most of your critiques of Palin are just that...opinion.
Unknown is not inherently a negative nor an indication of a horrible choice. Indeed, an unknown candidate can provide excitement and attention to a candidate due to the relative mystery surrounding who they are.
Inexeperienced is arguable. I've had the debate in 2008 and would happily have it again now, but in terms of job related experience Palin was not significantly worse off as VP than the individual at the top of the democratic ticket. So while, in a general sense, experience could be suggested....one must take it into context of the election at hand in terms of it's importance and possible relevance.
Unpolished and poor speaker. Again...
OPINION. While we all know that you hold your opinion to be worth its weight in platinum, that still doesn't make it fact. While I personally agree in terms of the unpolished, I significantly disagree with you in regards to speaking ability. Part of public speaking is simply ones charisma and ability to captivate the crowd...the crowds she managed to pull in to listen to her speak, all throughout the country, is at least an indication that she was at least average in terms of public speaking as it is would take a significant amount of other factors to get someone whose "very poor" as a speaker to pull in such amounts of people to listen to them speak.
Finally, what do you base your
opinion regarding McCain's chances on? Polling indicated numerous times throughout the campaign that he was relatively close to Obama, even leading at times. To suggest there was "no shot" is utterly ridiculous hyperbole, and nothing more. Perhaps not a good shot? I'd be more apt to agree there. But "no chance"? Ridiculous.
Palin was hardly a "horrible" choice either. Politically, Palin was a very good choice in my mind and based on the actual factors that occured during the campaign such as poll numbers, donations, attendance at events, etc. Your opinions, which haven't been backed up and seem significantly off base, doesn't change my thoughts on that.
Palin provided numerous political advantages as a pick. She countered the "historic" nature of the Obama ticket, no longer allowing one side to be able to push that card. She injected the Republican ticket with a charismatic and young figure aimed at attempting to provide a "fresh" face in Washington, again attempting to counter that notion regarding the Obama ticket. It had the demogrpahic appeal to potentially assist McCain with Women and with the base, both of which he was weak with. She fueled increases in grassroots interest in the campaign, which is vital for word of mouth action and doubly so in an election cycle where grassroots enthusiasm was strongly in favor of the other side. She also spurred donation increases, adding to campaign coffers.
Furthermore, strategy wise, Palin was a godsend that was simply horribly botched by McCain. John McCain, for the majority of the early part of the elections, was trying his darndest to be "Joe Conservative" and get the base, which he had pushed away for 8 years, to come back to him. They weren't buying it. At the same time, he was losing his grip on independents that previously felt favorably for him during a time when Obama was already doing great with independents. The pick of Palin would've allowed for McCain to switch gears after it and push hardcore moderate...actually highlighting his bipartisan and independent credentials rather than simply shouting "maverick" all the time. The base would've been placated by Palin, turning up in droves...as they did anyways...to hear her speak around local places of the country. All the while, McCain would be speaking on a more national level, blazing a potential independent course.
McCain, prior to the VP pick, was in a horrible position of an amazingly unenthusiastic and angry base and a continued loss of ground with independents as he was (failing at) wooing the base. His best shot, politically, was to pick someone the base would like, that would give him political capital against the Obama campaign, and who would allow him to run full on moderate after the pick. Palin fit that bill. The McCain camp screwed up however when McCain tried to continue to go around as Joe Republican, continued to try and thrust Palin into the spot light instead of himself, and basically didn't change their campaign strategy at all compared to prior to making the pick.
One can go back and look at the polls prior to and after her selection. Look at funding numbers before and after. Look at the convention bounce after her particular speech and compare it to the bounce recieved after Obama's speech to see the impact it hand on motivation of individuals. Look at McCain's status with independents prior to the pick and after...and then at the end. The pick of Palin and the convention actually provided McCain with his biggest boon of independents. However, it was after that point that McCain did not capitalize by having a ticket that was him and Palin, two different individuals working together, but rather attempted to simply mimic Palin's message...despite it's contradiction with his own past message at times...and continued to run a campaign that made her seem like the top of the ticket. That was the problem imho based on a view of the polls at that time and basic political science theory.