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The Ryan Bump

Hatuey

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Has anybody else noticed that unlike the last election, the VP pick this year has completely failed to rally up the base in any significant manner? Again, this isn't all that uncommon for an election but I was expecting Romney's VP pick to actually put Romney on top of Obama for at least week. His (Ryan's) speech has been praised by Republican pundits. The GOP convention has been the talk of political circles and yet no statistically relevant poll bump for Romney anywhere. If you have no idea what I'm talking about:

AFP: Palin bump brings McCain 7 million dollars in a day

ST. LOUIS, Missouri (AFP) — Republican vice presidential hopeful Sarah Palin proved she could bring in the money as John McCain's campaign raked in seven million dollars in the first day after he announced his historic pick."That's more money than we raised in the fourth quarter of 2007," press secretary Brooke Buchanan told reporters Saturday after campaign donations were tallied. "She's great news."
The campaign raised more than 4.5 million online and 2.3 million by mail and phone in the first day after introducing Palin as McCain's running mate at a standing-room only rally of 15,000 in Dayton, Ohio Friday.
VP pick rarely makes a difference in the race | cnsnews.com

McCain has been roundly criticized for his selection of Palin, a first-term Alaska governor with an affinity for going off script. Palin delighted the conservative base but struggled to show mastery of many policy issues. The bump in the polls McCain enjoyed after rolling out Palin was short-lived, and the Arizona Republican lost by a convincing margin to Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who peddled his own brand of blue-collar politics. But Palin's public stumbles were not likely what lost McCain the election. Rather, it was the economy, whose bottom fell out under a Republican president's watch two months before Election Day.
Granted, these "bumps" are considered to be "short lived" but I haven't noticed Ryan make that much of a difference for Romney in any field. Maybe evened him up on some polls but the kind of bump that Palin gave McCain is nowhere to be seen this year. Why is this?
 

00timh

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Has anybody else noticed that unlike the last election, the VP pick this year has completely failed to rally up the base in any significant manner? Again, this isn't all that uncommon for an election but I was expecting Romney's VP pick to actually put Romney on top of Obama for at least week. His (Ryan's) speech has been praised by Republican pundits. The GOP convention has been the talk of political circles and yet no statistically relevant poll bump for Romney anywhere. If you have no idea what I'm talking about:

AFP: Palin bump brings McCain 7 million dollars in a day



VP pick rarely makes a difference in the race | cnsnews.com



Granted, these "bumps" are considered to be "short lived" but I haven't noticed Ryan make that much of a difference for Romney in any field. Maybe evened him up on some polls but the kind of bump that Palin gave McCain is nowhere to be seen this year. Why is this?
Well, I am thinking that Romney's choice is sort of opposite the effect that McCain tried to make with Palin. The Palin pick was a shock to almost everyone, including many deep inside the McCain team itself. It was a hail mary type of play. Romney is attempting to do the opposite here I believe and not looking for a big jolt with Ryan but to attempt to right a listing ship.
 

Grim17

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I just saw today, that according to Rasmussen, Romney got a 5 point bump from the convention.
 

Hatuey

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Well, I am thinking that Romney's choice is sort of opposite the effect that McCain tried to make with Palin. The Palin pick was a shock to almost everyone, including many deep inside the McCain team itself. It was a hail mary type of play. Romney is attempting to do the opposite here I believe and not looking for a big jolt with Ryan but to attempt to right a listing ship.
At the same time however, one could argue that bringing a declared Conservative into his campaign would have fired up a base that up until a few months ago was calling Romney 'a liberal'.
 

Hatuey

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I just saw today, that according to Rasmussen, Romney got a 5 point bump from the convention.
Yes, that's one poll. RCP's polling average combined has Obama and Romney neck and neck.
 

Redress

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I just saw today, that according to Rasmussen, Romney got a 5 point bump from the convention.
Sept. 1: Romney's Convention Bounce Appears Middling So Far - NYTimes.com

The Rasmussen poll represents a 5-point swing toward Mr. Romney from the polling firm’s final survey before the conventions, when it had Mr. Obama ahead by two points. But it does not read quite as strongly for him as compared to the long-term average of Rasmussen polls, which have had Mr. Romney ahead by about one percentage point on average over the past 60 days.
It is really too early to accurately gauge a convention bump, and things will be further complicated by the fact that the democratic convention begins this week. Nate Silver predicted an about 4 point bump in polling overall, which looks like it will be fairly close to accurate, with a real possibility that Romney could overperform that mark by a point or 2.

As far as Ryan bump: Aug. 26: Little Momentum in Polls in Advance of Conventions - NYTimes.com


But these are only very minor differences — the model estimates that Mr. Romney gained a net of perhaps one percentage point in the popular vote after his selection of Mr. Ryan, and has lost perhaps half a percentage point since then. Changes of that magnitude could potentially be caused by statistical noise, as well as by real shifts of opinion.
What’s clearer is that Mr. Romney did not get as large a bounce in the polls from his vice-presidential pick as most past candidates have — a fact that can arguably be read as a bearish sign for him.
 

Fletch

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At the same time however, one could argue that bringing a declared Conservative into his campaign would have fired up a base that up until a few months ago was calling Romney 'a liberal'.
I think the Ryan pick made the republican base go from "hold your nose" support for Romney to mild support for Romney. But support is support so you wouldnt expect the polls to move that much. Plus I cant see a large swing either way since there really arent that many people undecided out there.
 

Grim17

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Yes, that's one poll. RCP's polling average combined has Obama and Romney neck and neck.
Yes, but if you look at the 8 polls used to obtain that average, 6 of them were taken prior to Romney's speech, and only 2 of them had any data at all from after the convention. One was Gallup, which is a 7 day tracking poll, only 2 days of which were taken post convention... And the other one by Rasmussen is a 3 day tracking poll, which is the only one of the 8 polls that reflects public opinion since the republican convention ended.
 

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Election means Ho Hum.
Can't they find a worse bunch?
 

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This election is unusual in that there are many fewer undecideds that you usually see. I think that is tamping down the effect of the VP selecton and convention (soon to be plural). It's going to be very had for Romney to move the needle.
 

Camlon

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Um... what do you mean by Romney hasn't benefited from picking Ryan? He has increased by 3%, and Obama has fallen by 1% since he got nominated. Democrats said Ryan would destroy Romney, they were obviously wrong. It proves again that Republicans should not get election advice from democrat pundits. They do not have anything in common with the voters Republicans are trying to attract. RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Some people mention Palin, but remember that Palin seemed like a great pick till she opened her mouth. Ryan will not have the same problem.
 

AdamT

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Um... what do you mean by Romney hasn't benefited from picking Ryan? He has increased by 3%, and Obama has fallen by 1% since he got nominated. Democrats said Ryan would destroy Romney, they were obviously wrong. It proves again that Republicans should not get election advice from democrat pundits. They do not have anything in common with the voters Republicans are trying to attract. RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Some people mention Palin, but remember that Palin seemed like a great pick till she opened her mouth. Ryan will not have the same problem.
McCain got an 11 point bump from the Palin pick and convention. Romney's bump seems to be about 2-4 points. Ryan is not the idiot that Palin was, but his positions are even more extreme and he has already blown his ill-deserved "truth teller" reputation.
 

Camlon

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McCain got an 11 point bump from the Palin pick and convention. Romney's bump seems to be about 2-4 points. Ryan is not the idiot that Palin was, but his positions are even more extreme and he has already blown his ill-deserved "truth teller" reputation.
You are making up data. Mccain increased by 3% and Obama fell by 2%. That is not too different from increasing with 3% and falling by 1%. Also, the gain was vaporized when she had her first interview.

Even if Ryan is more extreme, how do you plan to tell it? Do you think potential Republican voters watch MSNBC? The potential voters are not democrats, the potential voters are stay at home republicans, moderates and right wing independents. What are these voters hearing right now? Yes that is Obama want to cut medicare to fund obamacare. Do you seriously think responding with "Ryan will destroy medicare" is going to work. It is Romney and Obama who creates policy, and not Ryan and Biden. It will be word against word.

Ryan was the best choice. When are you going to admit it?
 
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Helix

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Has anybody else noticed that unlike the last election, the VP pick this year has completely failed to rally up the base in any significant manner?
Ryan will certainly bring in some of the base which might otherwise not have shown up. i tend to doubt he's going to convince many independents, though, due to some of his proposals. the Romney strategy seems to be that if they can bring out the base, they can win. if he's shooting for centrist independents, however, he picked the wrong VP.
 

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You are making up data. Mccain increased by 3% and Obama fell by 2%. That is not too different from increasing with 3% and falling by 1%. Also, the gain was vaporized when she had her first interview.
Uh, no, I am using RCP data from the 2008 campaign.

Before the GOP convention Obama had a six point lead. After the GOP convention McCain had a 4-5 point lead, for an 11-point swing. RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Not sure what you pulled your numbers out of, but I have a pretty good suspicion.
 

Travis007

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McCain got an 11 point bump from the Palin pick and convention. Romney's bump seems to be about 2-4 points. Ryan is not the idiot that Palin was, but his positions are even more extreme and he has already blown his ill-deserved "truth teller" reputation.
You have two idiots on your ticket.. Stupid Joe makes Palin look like a GENIUS... I can see Stupid Joes plugs from my door..only if the light hits his frozen botoxed forhead right tho..

Your Libtard heros are finished..
 

Jetboogieman

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You have two idiots on your ticket.. Stupid Joe makes Palin look like a GENIUS... I can see Stupid Joes plugs from my door..only if the light hits his frozen botoxed forhead right tho..

Your Libtard heros are finished..
Thank you for your rather intellectual and fascinating commentary Travis.

You never fail to amuse me.
 

Travis007

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Thank you for your rather intellectual and fascinating commentary Travis.

You never fail to amuse me.

Glad you enjoyed the chuckle.. I hope one day you will throw off the chains of "liberalism" and free yourself and help the country, but I really hold not much for hope for many here.. they are mezmarized by empty rhetoric and idiotic sayings like "forward"...thats very intellectual..forward.. wow..
 

Jetboogieman

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Μολὼν λαβέ;1060864707 said:
[/B]

As does Joe Biden the rest of the world.
Oh I concur.

Joe Biden is kind of like your old uncle on a new medication who hasn't quite got the dosage right.

But in actuality nah, I can safely speak for at least quite a bit of the world (Canada, Britain and South Africa) when I say the vast majority of us much prefer Obama and Biden to Bush and Cheney.
 

nota bene

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Oh I concur.

Joe Biden is kind of like your old uncle on a new medication who hasn't quite got the dosage right.

But in actuality nah, I can safely speak for at least quite a bit of the world (Canada, Britain and South Africa) when I say the vast majority of us much prefer Obama and Biden to Bush and Cheney.
The great thing is that none of you get a vote. I really don't care what "the world" thinks. (But if you think that the Queen is impressed with Obama, I'd like to re-sell you London Bridge.)
 

AdamT

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Thank you for your rather intellectual and fascinating commentary Travis.

You never fail to amuse me.
He is an excellent representative of what the Right has to offer.
 

Camlon

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Uh, no, I am using RCP data from the 2008 campaign.

Before the GOP convention Obama had a six point lead. After the GOP convention McCain had a 4-5 point lead, for an 11-point swing. RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Not sure what you pulled your numbers out of, but I have a pretty good suspicion.
I am using the same source you dumbass. Look at what source I am linking to above. It is just you who can't do maths.

Lets do maths. Palin was nominated August 29.
August 29
Obama: 47.7
McCain: 43.8

Highest point possible
McCain: 48.3
Obama: 45.4

That is (48.3 - 43.8) + (45.4 - 43.8 ) = 6.1

In what world is that 11%?
 

AdamT

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I am using the same source you dumbass. Look at what source I am linking to above. It is just you who can't do maths.

Lets do maths. Palin was nominated August 29.
August 29
Obama: 47.7
McCain: 43.8

Highest point possible
McCain: 48.3
Obama: 45.4

That is (48.3 - 43.8) + (45.4 - 43.8 ) = 6.1

In what world is that 11%?
Calm down there, Sparky. I was going off of the graph, which seems to be a bit imprecise. However, looking at the listed numbers, the bump still comes to 9.2 points -- not 6.1.

Specifically, Obama's post convention bump peaked on September 2, when he led 49.2 to 42.8: a 6.3% advantage. McCain's post convention bump peaked on September 8, when he led 48.3 to 45.4: a 2.9% advantage.

In what world does 6.3 + 2.9 = 6.1?
 
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