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The Iranian threat

Again, this very simple conclusion is pointless. Who has North Korea invaded? Who did Afghanistan invade? Who has Pakistan invaded? Yet, their threats are/were quite recognizable. Your conclusions are without thought.
when i noted that iran has not invaded another country in 200 years it was in response to this assertion about israel's supposed restraint:
That's a bogus claim. Israeli nuclear restraint is well-established (at least when one looks at the matter objectively). After all, even when it was attacked in 1973 and was losing significant ground early into the Yom Kippur War, a time when it possessed a small nuclear arsenal, it never threatened to use nuclear weapons, much less resorted to doing so.
clearly, israel has a history of crossing state borders to initiate the hostilities of war
israel, a nuclear power, is prone to such unilateral military incursions, and should not be viewed as "restrained"
any objective observer would then be able to recognize that iran is not a nation with similar warlike inclinations, especially in comparison to the multiple military actions initiated by israel

Your tendency to criticize Israel at all costs has you blind. And its by choice. You call me dumb?
i admire israelis, and much of what they have accomplished. what i do not support, or defend, are the actions of the israeli government against the Palestinian people. those who were once oppressed have become the oppressors
actually, i referred to your own useage of the term "dumb" as you applied it here:
Even Israel's recentinvasion into Lebanon was isolated and restrained to Hezbollah territory. But you like to simply state "invaded Lebanon" because it implies something else, don't you? I can't believe how hard some of you try to insist that everyone else is dumb.
the fact is lebanon was invaded by the israelis. you, yourself insisted that those of you who believe otherwise would be found "dumb"
Israel has resorted to wars in self defense. Iran has resorted to terrorist organizations to create war. How does Hezbollah defend Iran? Hezbollah is a radical extension of Iran's government. It is a Khomeini creation. If you defend Iran's continued beliefe in Hezbollah's mission, then you may as well defend Khomeini.

I see you ignored (very typical by the way) the entirety of my post that doesn't allow you to label Israel as the aggressor. It's crap like this that paints you as the typical basher. I study constantly, mostly out of interest. Perhaps you should crack a book or two and get away from the European mold to hate on Jews.
i support any people's right to defend themselves and their nation. pity you are not also there
 
when i noted that iran has not invaded another country in 200 years it was in response to this assertion about israel's supposed restraint:
clearly, israel has a history of crossing state borders to initiate the hostilities of war....

israel, a nuclear power, is prone to such unilateral military incursions, and should not be viewed as "restrained" any objective observer would then be able to recognize that iran is not a nation with similar warlike inclinations, especially in comparison to the multiple military actions initiated by israel

It doesn't matter what you responded to. Stating Israel as the historical aggressor is false. This is your mistake or error. Despite being invaded constantly in major wars initiated by zealous Arabs, you still try to pretend that Israel is the aggressor. Israel has never tried to conquer anybody. The Suez War was in response to having its trades cut off in the Suez, for which French and British governments jumped at a chance to imperialize the Canal for their needs (America ended it). The recent invasion into Lebanon was entirely about Hezbollah's continued and escallating conduct to antagonize and provoke.

By stating the simple statement that Israel has crossed borders, you are clearly avoiding the truth for the sake of believing the radical rhetoric. Israel never crossed a border that wasn't already initiated by its neighbors. It's actually simple. No Hezbollah, no invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah is Iran's extension. Iran shows no restraint in funding terror and applying the rhetoric to gather support for it. No Egyptian militancy against Israel over the international waterway, no Suez War. Are you getting this? With all the crap Israel takes from this Muslim region, they have actually mostly done nothing in response for fear of your kind seekinbg to brand it as evil. You may as well declare that America's invasion of Afghanistan was unjust and without provocation or that we initiated a war they didn't already start. The agressor is completely from the side you offer moral support towards. What exactly makes you not the Western enemy here?

i admire israelis, and much of what they have accomplished. what i do not support, or defend, are the actions of the israeli government against the Palestinian people.

Your only criticism should be about their develoment of houses. Perhaps you should look more closer at the Arab and Iranian governnment(s) that actually abuse Palestinians. Why has no Palestinian been given citizenship in the Arab nations they were born in? Why have Palestinians been actually slaughtered in two events that pitted them against their fellow Muslim? Why, in one of these events, did Palestinians actually look towards Israel to protect them?

Israel is hardly the aggressor or the abuser. You are unfair in your criticisms and by doing so, you lift the guilty away fromtheir responsibility.


i support any people's right to defend themselves and their nation. pity you are not also there

No you don't. I've seen enough of your posts. You support any nation that isn't Israel. And by the way, it was Arabs that denied Palestinians to declare independence...not Israelis. Ever since, it has been Arabs and Persians that demand the struggle rather than a creation of a Palestinian state next to Israel. And today, over the past 60 years, we see a situation where both sides are refusing to budge.

Pity I'm not where?
 
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First, the man's speech was ignorant and appealed to the most religiously savage of Middle Eastern civilization. And second, you are absolutely rediculous. You are in a deep hole with this and quickly turning into as much of a radical as those who insist that WMD is just around the corner in Baghdad. You actually pretend that his phrase "rezhim-e ishghalgar-e qods" (regime occupying Jerusalem) is supposed to be any country other than Israel? That without actually stating the name, he could mean anything?

you're right but that is not the main point



Now, this is all from the speech I linked to and you linked to. It's the same words. The man is rallying the "troops" for his idiot crusade. You see, denying parts of the speech for favor of other parts to defend the piece of **** is dishonest. It's actually disgusting.

I quote the relevant part of the speech, the one where he actually explains what he means by "the fall of the regime occupying Jerusalem"



I'm sure the religious freak doesn't need bub donning a shield for him. Or maybe he does. The more support he can get the better.

So now I support Ahmadinejad?
1) Of course, the truth is that the Soviet Union and Britain had far more to do with establishing Israel than the U.S. It wasn't even the U.S. that came to Israel's rescue when all of the Arab Middle East attacked it and denied Palestinians to declare independence. In fact, it wasn't until 1967 that the French stopped being chief weapons import and supporter and America took over. And since Muslims have been the chief oppressor of other Muslims for centuries, scapegoating America is just pathetic. It's not the U.S. that denies the Iranian people their MTV.

Off topic


2) But back to the subject. Just who do you think the occupying regime is?

Still not getting the main point

You actually pretend that without stating Israel that he could mean anything? And he is speaking of all western nations, to include Arab nations, that recognize Israel's right to exist when he speaks of this "disgrace" and "Islamic fury." This is actually very easy if you deny your impulse to criticize Israel at all costs. The fact is that what he stated and very much meant is not refuted by the majority of all translators. Only the few have chosen to pat him on the head and defend him as if some how he is simply misunderstood.

I don't care if they are "few" or "a majority", they are still right, their argumentation makes sense.
1) "to wipe off the map" does not exist in Farsi, so it is impossible that he said it
2) to understand what he meant by "disappear", we have to refer to what he said just before, which is the part where he talks about the end of various regimes that were once believed to be almighty


The man won't even allow the holocaust to be the event it was because it paints Jews, not Palestinians, as victims. But he has no problem with Jews, right?

Just stop. It's embarrassing.

I never said that, and stop with the personnal attacks please.
 
The power games being played in the ME have not been done by religous zeolots, just the political leaders who for the most part are not particularly religious (exception being Iran) Syria is not lead by religous zeolots, nor Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt. Even Iran's foreign policy while mostly directed towards support of oppressed Shia groups is very pragmatic in most regards.


I beg to differ. There is no such thing as a government in a Muslim sharia nation that can seperate religious dogma from state politics the two are always inter-connected in a complex maze of symbolism.

Your suggestion Muslim politicians work in a non religious vacum with due respect should be revisited.

Let's start with Turkey. The current regime was elected and pushes a platform full of Muslim conservative values they seek reintroduced into every day life. To suggest otherwise is absurd.

To suggest in Iran its government does not enforce fundamentalist Muslim doctrine is also absurd.

Saudi Arabia has since its inception cow-towed to theWahabi sect of Islam and openly enforces a fundamentalist Islam doctrine through its state laws on all people.

You might want to examine how Muslim states apply their laws based on Islam against their non Muslim citizens. Or do you wish to pretend non Muslims are treated as equals and there is no dhimmitude still enforced?

You want to tell me how wonderful it is to be a Christian in Iraq these days or an Assyrian Christian in Syria or a Christian in Sudan with dark skin to boot. What you think the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt does not force Mubarak to make concessions as to certain laws he enforces on his people? You think the Alawite sect that Baby Assad uses to prop his power base in Syria does not cow tow to Hezbollah and Iran and their fundamentalist Muslim views?

You think religion has no part in the politics of Lebanon? Come on.
 
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I beg to differ. There is no such thing as a government in a Muslim sharia nation that can seperate religious dogma from state politics the two are always inter-connected in a complex maze of symbolism.

Your suggestion Muslim politicians work in a non religious vacum with due respect should be revisited.

Let's start with Turkey. The current regime was elected and pushes a platform full of Muslim conservative values they seek reintroduced into every day life. To suggest otherwise is absurd.

To suggest in Iran its government does not enforce fundamentalist Muslim doctrine is also absurd.

Saudi Arabia has since its inception cow-towed to theWahabi sect of Islam and openly enforces a fundamentalist Islam doctrine through its state laws on all people.

You might want to examine how Muslim states apply their laws based on Islam against their non Muslim citizens. Or do you wish to pretend non Muslims are treated as equals and there is no dhimmitude still enforced?

You want to tell me how wonderful it is to be a Christian in Iraq these days or an Assyrian Christian in Syria or a Christian in Sudan with dark skin to boot. What you think the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt does not force Mubarak to make concessions as to certain laws he enforces on his people? You think the Alawite sect that Baby Assad uses to prop his power base in Syria does not cow tow to Hezbollah and Iran and their fundamentalist Muslim views?

You think religion has no part in the politics of Lebanon? Come on.

you are not responding to what was posted
there was no assertion that many nations of the ME are not populated by those with religious beliefs. no one stated or implied that the political leaders are operating within a religious vacuum
what was stated was that the leaders are not that particularly religious. have another read:
The power games being played in the ME have not been done by religous zeolots, just the political leaders who for the most part are not particularly religious (exception being Iran) ...
 
Why don't you issue proof they are developing nuclear weapons... last I remembered nobody can.

Is there evidence that Israel has nuclear weapons? I'm talking about the type of evidence that would be admissible in an American court. In the absence of such evidence I would suggest that nobody has nuclear weapons in the middle east. If Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, then neither does Israel.
 
If Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, then neither does Israel.
...

Revealed: how Israel offered to sell South Africa nuclear weapons | World news | The Guardian

Guess they were lying to SAfrica when they were going to sell them before SA reneged.

http://scholar.google.com/scholar?client=safari&rls=en&q=evidence+of+Israel%27s+nuclear+arsenal&oe=UTF-8&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=ws It's actually well known and a given they do have them. Iran is another deal.
 
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You anti-Israeli minions always seem to make your own traps. If an Iranian funded group (Hezbollah) was constantly nagging and striking out towards your nation you would insist on defending yourself. Of course, since you aren't a Jew nation, you would probably not be criticized for your defense as if you were the aggressor. When it came to the recent trip into Lebanon to chase down these Iranian funded terrorists, you as well as the rest of the typical crowd, rushed to Lebanon's defense as if Hezbollah wasn't the factor.
And you anti-Arabs kiddies always seem to ignore relative history. I have never once made a statement on this forum concerning Israel's reasons for going into Lebanon in 2006. Therefore, you are attributing things I have never said to me, and that is disgusting. Does that mean I get to do the same for you? Somewhere else someone said all Muslims should be exterminated. I don't have to verify that (just like you falsy accused me of saying something I have not), but I'm guessing that person was you.
You speak of just causes for war while denying how little Israel has reacted over their just causes for war. The U.S., as well as the rest of the Western leeches, jumped into Afghanistan to deal with a regime that protected Al-Queda over 9/11. After decades of being invaded by Arab nations and violently antagonized by an Iranian funded terrorist group, you dare take their side. You honeslty can't see the absolute depravity in your stance?
LOL!
Now I'm taking Al-Qaeda's side (for someone who is apparently a Middle Eastern expert [which I highly doubt, since you never once told me what accredited institute you received your intellect on the subject from] you can't even spell a group that Americans have been fighting for the last 7 years). And in case you forgot (likely), you went into Iraq under completely false pretenses without approval from the UN. These same false pretenses are being purported daily in American mainstream media and you think it's no problem. You are a propogandist's most viable target.
 
...

Revealed: how Israel offered to sell South Africa nuclear weapons | World news | The Guardian

Guess they were lying to SAfrica when they were going to sell them before SA reneged.

evidence of Israel's nuclear arsenal - Google Scholar It's actually well known and a given they do have them. Iran is another deal.

I asked for evidence that would be admissible in a US Court. Articles from the Guardian are inadmissible as evidence. This is an evidentiary standard that cannot be satisfied.

Neither Israel nor Iran has nuclear weapons from the standpoint of actual clear and convincing evidence. In the absence of such evidence there is only the suspicion that Israel and Iran are or will be nuclear weapons state.

Israel and Iran aren't a problem to America. Let the Israelis and Iranians solve their own problems. It's not America's problem unless America is looking for trouble.
 
I asked for evidence that would be admissible in a US Court. Articles from the Guardian are inadmissible as evidence. This is an evidentiary standard that cannot be satisfied.

Neither Israel nor Iran has nuclear weapons from the standpoint of actual clear and convincing evidence. In the absence of such evidence there is only the suspicion that Israel and Iran are or will be nuclear weapons state.

Israel and Iran aren't a problem to America. Let the Israelis and Iranians solve their own problems. It's not America's problem unless America is looking for trouble.

I know you didn't click the link because Safrica exposed the formerly secret documents from israel promoting a transfer of nuclear arms. As in the article has pictures of them. The google scholar search is rife with information on Israel's nuclear aspirations in the past and its current arsenal. But whatever man, stay in your little box.
 
I know you didn't click the link because Safrica exposed the formerly secret documents from israel promoting a transfer of nuclear arms. As in the article has pictures of them. The google scholar search is rife with information on Israel's nuclear aspirations in the past and its current arsenal. But whatever man, stay in your little box.

I am taking a strictly legalistic standpoint in challenging you. Legalistic thinking prevails in America. As you move through life you will come to see how legalisms can be used in debate to divert and undermine an unproven contention.

The RSA documentation is inadmissible hearsay in an American courtroom. You should invoke the Doctrine of Judicial Notice.
 
Endless war is not an option for a power in rapid decline.

No one advocated "endless war" as a means of safeguarding the nation's vital regional interests. There are concrete ways to protect such interests. First, the U.S. could continue to work to maintain an effective balance of power consistent with safeguarding its vital interests and allies. The balance of power might well be the most effective means for reducing the risk of regional conflict. Second, the U.S. could work aggressively to diversify its energy consumption practices/supply. Vigorous lip service of Democratic and Republican administrations notwithstanding, the U.S. has failed to take substantive measures to address its energy-related vulnerabilities. Hence, the importance of the Persian Gulf is actually increasing, given the allocation of the world's proved oil reserves. Third, backed by a combination of the balance of power and reduced U.S. vulnerability, U.S. diplomatic leverage would be increased and that diplomatic leverage could also facilitate the nation's ability to protect its vital interests.

Abdication or isolation, on the other hand, would merely abandon U.S. vital interests, add to the nation's risk exposure by degrading the nation's perceived or actual ability/willingness to protect its vital interests, undermine deterrence that rests on U.S. abilities/willingness to exercise power when necessary/enemy calculations, and demoralize its allies. Enemy states are highly unlikely to interpret wholesale abdication or isolation on the part of the U.S. as an expression of good will. Instead, they would interpret it as an indication of a lack of U.S. power and resolve. In short, abdication could actually increase the kind of risks to the U.S. that its advocates believe current posture has amplified.

All power is limited. America must husband its remaining strength.

Of course, all power is limited. That the neoconservative illusion of a unipolar world highlighted by U.S. preeminence never existed doesn't mean that the U.S.cannot or should not safeguard its vital interests. At the same time, one should not be tempted to believe that the U.S. is impotent. It is not.

The reality is that in a multipolar world, tradeoffs and prioritization have always been necessary. In such a world, I would suggest that taking the measures necessary to safeguard the nation's access to Persian Gulf Oil is magnitudes of order more important than intervening directly or indirectly in, let's say, a localized civil conflict in a failed state such as Somalia where no legitimate government exists, no major U.S. interests/interests of strategic allies are involved, etc. If one is going to refocus U.S. foreign policy, the place to trim U.S. commitments is in areas that are of peripheral importance to the U.S., not those that are critical or vital.

The American people will not continue to permit the middle east to run red with American blood while most of the energy resources the country needs are under our feet.

Putting aside the sweeping and, I believe completely unfounded language of the Middle East's 'running red with American blood," I have seen hardly any credible public support for the kind of sacrifices and investment that would be needed to reduce U.S. dependency on imported oil. Opposition to significant fuel, carbon, or other energy consumption taxes (looking at the issue of geopolitical vulnerability, which exists with or without the climate change debate) aimed at a siginficant reduction in the nation's energy consumption are widely opposed. There is no strong level of public support for a crash Apollo- or Manhattan-style project to move away from such dependency. Fuel efficiency standards are increased only timidly, at a rate that is far below that which a wide range of technological applications have advanced. Political claims of commitment to energy independence--or at least less dependence--ring hollow on a bipartisan basis--as they amount mainly to words, backed by little or no concrete actions or meaningful investment. In short,currently there is no public movement for reducing the nation's energy vulnerability. Instead, actions--governmental and public opinion--amount to a ringing defense of the status quo, even as that status quo is leading to greater geopolitical risk.
 
I am taking a strictly legalistic standpoint in challenging you. Legalistic thinking prevails in America. As you move through life you will come to see how legalisms can be used in debate to divert and undermine an unproven contention.

The RSA documentation is inadmissible hearsay in an American courtroom. You should invoke the Doctrine of Judicial Notice.

Oh the Law... excuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuse meee :roll:

I thought you were challenged in terms of reality, as in it is known Israel has nuclear weapons. I didn't know you meant it thaaat way. I should've just assumed you were setting the terms of the debate yourself....
 
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No one advocated "endless war" as a means of safeguarding the nation's vital regional interests. There are concrete ways to protect such interests. First, the U.S. could continue to work to maintain an effective balance of power consistent with safeguarding its vital interests and allies. The balance of power might well be the most effective means for reducing the risk of regional conflict. Second, the U.S. could work aggressively to diversify its energy consumption practices/supply. Vigorous lip service of Democratic and Republican administrations notwithstanding, the U.S. has failed to take substantive measures to address its energy-related vulnerabilities. Hence, the importance of the Persian Gulf is actually increasing, given the allocation of the world's proved oil reserves. Third, backed by a combination of the balance of power and reduced U.S. vulnerability, U.S. diplomatic leverage would be increased and that diplomatic leverage could also facilitate the nation's ability to protect its vital interests.

Abdication or isolation, on the other hand, would merely abandon U.S. vital interests, add to the nation's risk exposure by degrading the nation's perceived or actual ability/willingness to protect its vital interests, undermine deterrence that rests on U.S. abilities/willingness to exercise power when necessary/enemy calculations, and demoralize its allies. Enemy states are highly unlikely to interpret wholesale abdication or isolation on the part of the U.S. as an expression of good will. Instead, they would interpret it as an indication of a lack of U.S. power and resolve. In short, abdication could actually increase the kind of risks to the U.S. that its advocates believe current posture has amplified.



Of course, all power is limited. That the neoconservative illusion of a unipolar world highlighted by U.S. preeminence never existed doesn't mean that the U.S.cannot or should not safeguard its vital interests. At the same time, one should not be tempted to believe that the U.S. is impotent. It is not.

The reality is that in a multipolar world, tradeoffs and prioritization have always been necessary. In such a world, I would suggest that taking the measures necessary to safeguard the nation's access to Persian Gulf Oil is magnitudes of order more important than intervening directly or indirectly in, let's say, a localized civil conflict in a failed state such as Somalia where no legitimate government exists, no major U.S. interests/interests of strategic allies are involved, etc. If one is going to refocus U.S. foreign policy, the place to trim U.S. commitments is in areas that are of peripheral importance to the U.S., not those that are critical or vital.



Putting aside the sweeping and, I believe completely unfounded language of the Middle East's 'running red with American blood," I have seen hardly any credible public support for the kind of sacrifices and investment that would be needed to reduce U.S. dependency on imported oil. Opposition to significant fuel, carbon, or other energy consumption taxes (looking at the issue of geopolitical vulnerability, which exists with or without the climate change debate) aimed at a siginficant reduction in the nation's energy consumption are widely opposed. There is no strong level of public support for a crash Apollo- or Manhattan-style project to move away from such dependency. Fuel efficiency standards are increased only timidly, at a rate that is far below that which a wide range of technological applications have advanced. Political claims of commitment to energy independence--or at least less dependence--ring hollow on a bipartisan basis--as they amount mainly to words, backed by little or no concrete actions or meaningful investment. In short,currently there is no public movement for reducing the nation's energy vulnerability. Instead, actions--governmental and public opinion--amount to a ringing defense of the status quo, even as that status quo is leading to greater geopolitical risk.

From what I can tell, you belong to the Realist school of American foreign policy. I used to be a Realist. Then I saw that my basic assumptions about the character of the American people and their polity were incorrect. I concluded that I was preparing for the last war instead of the next war as it were.

You are proposing containment. It worked with the Soviet Union so why wouldn't it work with Iran? It won't work with Iran because the character of the American people and their place in the world has changed irrevocably. The correlation of power in the middle east will favor Iran, Hanboli fundamentalists, and bad actors.

In focusing on the middle east in a multi-polar world America is making the same mistake made by the Ming Dynasty when it burned Admiral Zheng He's log books. America is committing it's strength and resources in a theater which will be less crucial to us than is America's proper sphere of influence. Don't be Don Quixote.
 
I should've just assumed you were setting the terms of the debate yourself....

Lawyers set the terms of debate in America. Grow accustomed to it. It's a good thing. Haha.
 
From what I can tell, you belong to the Realist school of American foreign policy. I used to be a Realist. Then I saw that my basic assumptions about the character of the American people and their polity were incorrect. I concluded that I was preparing for the last war instead of the next war as it were.

I do rely significantly on the Realist perspective for guidance, but the Realist perspective does not shape the entirety of my positions. I fully recognize the idealistic traits in the U.S. people, a trait that has been cultivated and nurtured by the nation's historic experience. Hence, there are genuine limits to how far one can go with the Realist perspective if one is in U.S. foreign policy circles. Nonetheless, that doesn't mean that the Realist perspective is unimportant. Because it reflects to good extent human nature as it is, that framework provides useful insight (so long as one remains aware of limits imposed by the U.S. experience, etc.).

You are proposing containment. It worked with the Soviet Union so why wouldn't it work with Iran? It won't work with Iran because the character of the American people and their place in the world has changed irrevocably.

I'm not going so far as to propose containment. Deterrence does not require containment. I'm only suggesting that the U.S. contribute to a balance of power that deters Iranian aggression with respect to vital U.S. interests and strategic allies.

The correlation of power in the middle east will favor Iran...

Iran was a great regional power in the past. It has the potential to regain great regional power status. If Iran is genuinely willing to develop a cooperative relationship with the U.S., the U.S. should be willing to reciprocate despite the nature of Iran's clerical regime. At the same time, Iran should be under no illusion that the U.S. lacks vital regional interests, much less that it would not act to protect those interests. There can be common ground for a more cooperative relationship. Whether Iran is genuinely interested in such an improved relationship remains to be seen.

In focusing on the middle east in a multi-polar world America is making the same mistake made by the Ming Dynasty when it burned Admiral Zheng He's log books. America is committing it's strength and resources in a theater which will be less crucial to us than is America's proper sphere of influence. Don't be Don Quixote.

Until the U.S. has strategic flexibility with respect to energy resources, it cannot afford to cede its willingness to defend open access to Persian Gulf oil. Hence, if Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. should (and will) be willing to use force to re-open it, even if Iran is nuclear-armed at the time. Iran would be foolish to use a nuclear arsenal to try to keep that vital waterway shut. After all, even if Iran could deliver a nuclear weapon or a small handful against the U.S./key U.S. allies, the U.S. is capable of delivering a blow that would completely destroy Iran (and it should do so under those circumstances, horrific as it might be). Hence, Iran would have little recourse but to stick to conventional means in such a conflict or face the sure prospect of its complete destruction.
 
DS said:

"Until the U.S. has strategic flexibility with respect to energy resources, it cannot afford to cede its willingness to defend open access to Persian Gulf oil. Hence, if Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. should (and will) be willing to use force to re-open it, even if Iran is nuclear-armed at the time. Iran would be foolish to use a nuclear arsenal to try to keep that vital waterway shut. After all, even if Iran could deliver a nuclear weapon or a small handful against the U.S./key U.S. allies, the U.S. is capable of delivering a blow that would completely destroy Iran (and it should do so under those circumstances, horrific as it might be). Hence, Iran would have little recourse but to stick to conventional means in such a conflict or face the sure prospect of its complete destruction."

Look at the last sentence of the portion of your post quoted above. Iran will be happy to wage a continuing series of proxy wars against America until America is exhausted. Are you aware that Iran and Saudi Arabia have been waging a proxy war in Yemen for over a year? There will be many more as Iran rises.

Americans don't have the stomach for the long twilight struggle which you suggest. Better to come back to America's sphere of influence and dominate it than by dissipating American strength. Think of 18th century Sweden as an example of an imperial power that pulled back before it was too late.
 
The joke here is that if any other country was seeking nuclear capabilities outside the Middle East, you would be insisting that nuclear weapons in the hands of one more nation is a bad thing.
Really I would be saying that? Do you have proof of that. Have I condemned India, North Korea, Pakistan, Israel or the first nuclear powers for having nuclear weapons on this form. I think you find I am rather unconcerned about new countries getting nuclear weapons
The Middle East is very much led by religious zealots. Don't confuse the men in suits that shake hands with Western diplomats for the themes underneath that they have to contend with. Recognized leaders in the Middle East have been assassinated. These leaders must balance their sense of modernization (the zealots call it Westernizing) and the national internal threats to murder and destroy in the name of religious radical expression.

Iran's foriegn policy is also very much directed towards Hezbollah and its violent product. Pakistan is a Muslim nation with nuclear capabilities. It is the religious zealots underneath and their organizations and neighborhoods that threaten its stability. With the Middle East exponentially going further and further into civilizational chaos since the 80s, more nuclear capabilities in what you perceive today as "stable" may bite you in the ass tomorrow. As it is, Pakistan's government has a license to be as corrupt and as brutal as you can imagine with our absolute support, simply because the alternative is to allow radicals to get in charge.

This is not a U.S./Soviet Union MAD situation. And since the MO in the Middle East has been to rely upon terrorist organizations to fight the wars against "infidels" and to use government policies to persecute other Muslims, what is it that makes you so enthused to seek a nuclear Middle East?

For the same reason the US supported various terrorist groups, right wing death squads and other murderous groups, it serves the national interest regarding foreign policey and national security. It weakens the enemy, draining resources away from the productive economy leading to the state becoming weaker over time. Why do you think the US and the USSR fought so many proxy fights? Direct confrontation would be too costly so they fought by proxy, using small countries as the battlegrounds and never directly engaging each other in combat. Iran can afford to get into a direct fight with Saudi Arabia, as it does not have the military to invade Saudi Arabia and hold any territory, and neither does Saudi Arabia have the ability to invade Iran. Both countries have too many internal security issues to be able to direct their military resources to fighting true wars. Iran would face issues with the Balochis, the MEK, the Pjak. While Saudi Arabia would face issues with Sunni fundies, and with the large Shia population. Neither can afford a true war, which is why both fight by proxy, using terrorist groups and should those groups get large enough actual rebel groups (like the PKK and Pjak.

None of the leaders are suicidal, even if they want to bring on the next coming of their particular religous leader, they all want to be around when he/she comes. The Shia leaders want to be when their mystical Iman returns, just like any of the christian revalationists will want to be around when jesus comes back.
 
All i would say is if you dont think there is a threat from Iran you had better be right . because otherwise you will sound like someone talking bout nazi germany in 1938.It will be the only political decision you are ever judged on.
 
All i would say is if you dont think there is a threat from Iran you had better be right . because otherwise you will sound like someone talking bout nazi germany in 1938.It will be the only political decision you are ever judged on.

Is there a threat from Iran sure, but it is no where near what Nazi Germany posed

It has a small military budget, and airforce made up mostly of 1970s fighters (F14's that Iran has trouble getting parts for) and generally outclassed Mig 29s. Its navy is has one or two domestically built destroyers that lag behind in technology that countries like Norway can build domestically. It has some domestically built tanks but I expect they are of a quality behind that of T-90s of Russia, never mind the Merkava or Abrams. Its attack choppers are old Cobra's. The only thing Iran has it a relatively large infantry, and a large number of missiles. It has really zero ability to push an invasion further then a few hundred km from its boarders. It can at most make life difficult for other countries, and would risk serious retaliation from the US if it ever started launching missiles at other countries. Iran can only realistically use proxy groups for any foreign actions. It will save the threat of missile attacks as a deterent if it ever gets attacked directly.

People seem to be wanting to place Iran on the same threat level as the USSR, despite Iran not having 20% of the industrial capacity of the USSR, or technoloigical ability. Turkey or Pakistan could in all likely hood beat Iran in military conflicts, the US airforce alone in the region could devastate Iran's military preventing any foreign military invasion by Iran. Iran is a threat but a medium to small one. Heck NK can do far more damage to SK then Iran could to any of its neighbors
 
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Is there a threat from Iran sure, but it is no where near what Nazi Germany posed

It has a small military budget, and airforce made up mostly of 1970s fighters (F14's that Iran has trouble getting parts for) and generally outclassed Mig 29s. Its navy is has one or two domestically built destroyers that lag behind in technology that countries like Norway can build domestically. It has some domestically built tanks but I expect they are of a quality behind that of T-90s of Russia, never mind the Merkava or Abrams. Its attack choppers are old Cobra's. The only thing Iran has it a relatively large infantry, and a large number of missiles. It has really zero ability to push an invasion further then a few hundred km from its boarders. It can at most make life difficult for other countries, and would risk serious retaliation from the US if it ever started launching missiles at other countries. Iran can only realistically use proxy groups for any foreign actions. It will save the threat of missile attacks as a deterent if it ever gets attacked directly.

Whilst you are partly right, Iran posses reverse engineered British, Russian and American tanks which could easily take on an army like Iraq's or Azerbaijan. Most of it's ships are acutally built in Iran and it has quite a large number of relatively modern destroyers and similar size vessels and hundreds of small torpedo and gun boats which, if we use the USS Cole as an example, could pose much more of a threat to American combat ships than first thought. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the MiG-29's would be upgraded by the Russians in the not too distant future as there are plenty of cheap upgrade packages available. Iranian missile capabilities are grossly exagerated as most missiles are derived from North Koeran technology which in turn was reversed engineered from Soviet technology.

People seem to be wanting to place Iran on the same threat level as the USSR, despite Iran not having 20% of the industrial capacity of the USSR, or technoloigical ability. Turkey or Pakistan could in all likely hood beat Iran in military conflicts, the US airforce alone in the region could devastate Iran's military preventing any foreign military invasion by Iran. Iran is a threat but a medium to small one. Heck NK can do far more damage to SK then Iran could to any of its neighbors

North Korea could do more only because their border is far closer to major South Korean cities such as Seoul. It has no capabilities of waging more than a border skirmish. The Turkish army is far more capable of beating the Iranians than the Pakistanis simply because the Pakistani army has the same offensive capabilities as the Iranians.
 
Whilst you are partly right, Iran posses reverse engineered British, Russian and American tanks which could easily take on an army like Iraq's or Azerbaijan. Most of it's ships are acutally built in Iran and it has quite a large number of relatively modern destroyers and similar size vessels and hundreds of small torpedo and gun boats which, if we use the USS Cole as an example, could pose much more of a threat to American combat ships than first thought. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the MiG-29's would be upgraded by the Russians in the not too distant future as there are plenty of cheap upgrade packages available. Iranian missile capabilities are grossly exagerated as most missiles are derived from North Koeran technology which in turn was reversed engineered from Soviet technology.
The torpedo boats are what would be the main threat in a conflict with any major power, the destroyers would be sunk by the US, Israel or Turkey relatively quickly. Upgraded Mig 29s would still be behind that of the F16s being flown by Israel, Turkey, Pakistan. As for its missiles, the threat is not so much in the accuracy of them but in what they can threaten to do, and in the numbers it may have. It has invested in anti ship missiles to be able to pose a threat to shipping in the gulf if required, its ballistic missile and cruise missiles could hit Saudi Arabia's main oil exporting facility in the gulf, or target other strategic sites. While of an old design, if it has enough numbers they could be a threat. The way Saddam used his scuds in the first gulf war was idiotic, I doubt Iran would use the same tactics
North Korea could do more only because their border is far closer to major South Korean cities such as Seoul. It has no capabilities of waging more than a border skirmish. The Turkish army is far more capable of beating the Iranians than the Pakistanis simply because the Pakistani army has the same offensive capabilities as the Iranians.
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Yes that is the reason why NK is a far bigger potential threat, it could do a large amount of damage to Seoul from just conventional weapons. It could not as you say actually invade SK and win
 
Look at the last sentence of the portion of your post quoted above. Iran will be happy to wage a continuing series of proxy wars against America until America is exhausted. Are you aware that Iran and Saudi Arabia have been waging a proxy war in Yemen for over a year? There will be many more as Iran rises.

Do you even pay attention to Middle East affairs? What's going on in Yemen right now has very little to do with Saudi Arabia and almost nothing to do with Iran. Tariq al-Fadhil and the Aden Abyan group are part of an internal civil strife in Yemen which comes back from the 1994 Yemen Civil War. To suggest that Saudi Arabia and Iran are sponsoring these groups is devoid of any reality. In fact, Saudi Arabia has cooperated with Yemen in countering attacks near its border. It has more to do with North/South and Sunni/Shia.
 
Do you even pay attention to Middle East affairs? What's going on in Yemen right now has very little to do with Saudi Arabia and almost nothing to do with Iran. Tariq al-Fadhil and the Aden Abyan group are part of an internal civil strife in Yemen which comes back from the 1994 Yemen Civil War. To suggest that Saudi Arabia and Iran are sponsoring these groups is devoid of any reality. In fact, Saudi Arabia has cooperated with Yemen in countering attacks near its border. It has more to do with North/South and Sunni/Shia.

I don't think I'm as smart as you are or as well informed. That's why I read things like:

This Week at War: The Upside of the Proxy War in Yemen | Foreign Policy

Right Truth: Iran's Proxy War In Yemen

Daily Kos: The Saudi-Iran Proxy War in Yemen

Yemen's proxy war that isn't | Ranj Alaaldin | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

Some people agree with you. Most commentators agree with me. Who is right? Time will tell.
 
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