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Sturgis COVID now in 3 states (and North Dakota isn't answering the phone)

CaughtInThe

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South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska

One would think it's in North Dakota too.


Coronavirus cases linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally now found in Minnesota, 2 other states










200803-sturgis-2015-ac-434p_52b195040a9e7909f314b08671fcfb17.fit-1520w.jpg
 

DiAnna

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Not a surprise. Sad, but completely predictable and pathetically unnecessary.
 

Bucky

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Fiddytree

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The initial reports were luckily positive, but now seem to be more skeptical that it avoided a super-spreader problem.

This was so predictable, but the Sturgis crowd are the anti-maskers, so it's basically a 250,000 per day Trumper celebration, which was a terribly bad idea.

As far as contact tracing across the multiple states are concerned, it's going to be incredibly difficult to get much by way of confirmation that Sturgis is going to be the superspreader. There's been a lot of activity at the same time and the upper plains/upper midwest are going through an upsurge already---with much much more to come thanks to public education and higher education.
 
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Fiddytree

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Not a surprise. Sad, but completely predictable and pathetically unnecessary.

Sturgis was an easy auxiliary for the culture war, because of the demographics that participate.
 

Phys251

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I've been monitoring the SD Dept. of Health for the last two weeks to see if any sort of breakout would occur there.

Here is the data I have so far. These numbers are the total numbers of coronavirus cases taken directly from the website above. The three counties are:

1. Meade County, where Sturgis is (Sturgis is way over on the western border of Meade Co.)
2. Lawrence Co., just west of Meade
3. Pennington Co., south of Meade and home to Rapid City and Mount Rushmore

CONFIRMED CASES County
Meade Lawrence Pennington
9-Aug 94 55 891
10-Aug 94 60 896
11-Aug 96 61 898
12-Aug 97 62 910
13-Aug 98 62 915
14-Aug 97 63 924
15-Aug 97 69 930
16-Aug 104 73 942
17-Aug 106 74 951
18-Aug 112 77 958
19-Aug 120 82 962
20-Aug 127 83 975
21-Aug 138 90 994
22-Aug 152 100 1028

Those are the total number of cases up through that date. The numbers you typically see on charts are new cases per day. To get that, we subtract each row from the prior row. Note that this means we lose one row.

New daily cases
Meade Lawrence Pennington
10-Aug 0 5 5
11-Aug 2 1 2
12-Aug 1 1 12
13-Aug 1 0 5
14-Aug -1 1 9
15-Aug 0 6 6
16-Aug 7 4 12
17-Aug 2 1 9
18-Aug 6 3 7
19-Aug 8 5 4
20-Aug 7 1 13
21-Aug 11 7 19
22-Aug 14 10 34

There's definitely been an uptick in Meade County since Aug. 16, but how much? Doesn't look like too much until you get today, right?

No. Those are total numbers. We need to look at the per-capita numbers there. Multiplying each county's new daily totals by 1 million and dividing by their respective populations gives us the same per-capita numbers that you see in places such as here. Those per capita numbers are:

New cases/million
Meade Lawrence Pennington
28,294 25,741 111,729 <- Populations
10-Aug 0.00 194.24 44.75
11-Aug 70.69 38.85 17.90
12-Aug 35.34 38.85 107.40
13-Aug 35.34 0.00 44.75
14-Aug -35.34 38.85 80.55
15-Aug 0.00 233.09 53.70
16-Aug 247.40 155.39 107.40
17-Aug 70.69 38.85 80.55
18-Aug 212.06 116.55 62.65
19-Aug 282.75 194.24 35.80
20-Aug 247.40 38.85 116.35
21-Aug 388.78 271.94 170.05
22-Aug 494.80 388.49 304.31

The decimals are annoying, so I'm just going to focus on the Meade County column, because that's where Sturgis is anyway.

Meade
28,294
10-Aug 0.00
11-Aug 70.69
12-Aug 35.34
13-Aug 35.34
14-Aug -35.34
15-Aug 0.00
16-Aug 247.40
17-Aug 70.69
18-Aug 212.06
19-Aug 282.75
20-Aug 247.40
21-Aug 388.78
22-Aug 494.80

For comparison, at its peak of the first wave, Florida was suffering over 500 new daily cases per million people. New York state briefly got up there, too.

But wait, it gets better. Meade County had an estimated 2018 population of 28,294, and Sturgis had an estimated 2019 population of 6,922. Giving Sturgis a head start of a year actually amplifies the point I am about to make: Sturgis has a little less than a fourth of Meade County's population. So if at least half of Meade's cases are occurring in Sturgis, which is a very conservative assumption, then as of today, nearly 1 in 1000 people in Sturgis are getting infected per day.

Congratulations, Sturgis. You've just become the latest hotspot. Exactly as the experts predicted, exactly as the deniers denied.
 

CaughtInThe

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I've been monitoring the SD Dept. of Health for the last two weeks to see if any sort of breakout would occur there.

Here is the data I have so far. These numbers are the total numbers of coronavirus cases taken directly from the website above. The three counties are:

1. Meade County, where Sturgis is (Sturgis is way over on the western border of Meade Co.)
2. Lawrence Co., just west of Meade
3. Pennington Co., south of Meade and home to Rapid City and Mount Rushmore

CONFIRMED CASES County
Meade Lawrence Pennington
9-Aug 94 55 891
10-Aug 94 60 896
11-Aug 96 61 898
12-Aug 97 62 910
13-Aug 98 62 915
14-Aug 97 63 924
15-Aug 97 69 930
16-Aug 104 73 942
17-Aug 106 74 951
18-Aug 112 77 958
19-Aug 120 82 962
20-Aug 127 83 975
21-Aug 138 90 994
22-Aug 152 100 1028

Those are the total number of cases up through that date. The numbers you typically see on charts are new cases per day. To get that, we subtract each row from the prior row. Note that this means we lose one row.

New daily cases
Meade Lawrence Pennington
10-Aug 0 5 5
11-Aug 2 1 2
12-Aug 1 1 12
13-Aug 1 0 5
14-Aug -1 1 9
15-Aug 0 6 6
16-Aug 7 4 12
17-Aug 2 1 9
18-Aug 6 3 7
19-Aug 8 5 4
20-Aug 7 1 13
21-Aug 11 7 19
22-Aug 14 10 34

There's definitely been an uptick in Meade County since Aug. 16, but how much? Doesn't look like too much until you get today, right?

No. Those are total numbers. We need to look at the per-capita numbers there. Multiplying each county's new daily totals by 1 million and dividing by their respective populations gives us the same per-capita numbers that you see in places such as here. Those per capita numbers are:

New cases/million
Meade Lawrence Pennington
28,294 25,741 111,729 <- Populations
10-Aug 0.00 194.24 44.75
11-Aug 70.69 38.85 17.90
12-Aug 35.34 38.85 107.40
13-Aug 35.34 0.00 44.75
14-Aug -35.34 38.85 80.55
15-Aug 0.00 233.09 53.70
16-Aug 247.40 155.39 107.40
17-Aug 70.69 38.85 80.55
18-Aug 212.06 116.55 62.65
19-Aug 282.75 194.24 35.80
20-Aug 247.40 38.85 116.35
21-Aug 388.78 271.94 170.05
22-Aug 494.80 388.49 304.31

The decimals are annoying, so I'm just going to focus on the Meade County column, because that's where Sturgis is anyway.

Meade
28,294
10-Aug 0.00
11-Aug 70.69
12-Aug 35.34
13-Aug 35.34
14-Aug -35.34
15-Aug 0.00
16-Aug 247.40
17-Aug 70.69
18-Aug 212.06
19-Aug 282.75
20-Aug 247.40
21-Aug 388.78
22-Aug 494.80

For comparison, at its peak of the first wave, Florida was suffering over 500 new daily cases per million people. New York state briefly got up there, too.

But wait, it gets better. Meade County had an estimated 2018 population of 28,294, and Sturgis had an estimated 2019 population of 6,922. Giving Sturgis a head start of a year actually amplifies the point I am about to make: Sturgis has a little less than a fourth of Meade County's population. So if at least half of Meade's cases are occurring in Sturgis, which is a very conservative assumption, then as of today, nearly 1 in 1000 people in Sturgis are getting infected per day.

Congratulations, Sturgis. You've just become the latest hotspot. Exactly as the experts predicted, exactly as the deniers denied.

yeah, i'm not sure why anyone would think that all those people from all over the country (the deniers and the ones that won't social distance/wear masks/be safe) could go there, not get infected or infect and then not take it all over the US.
 

Phys251

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yeah, i'm not sure why anyone would think that all those people from all over the country (the deniers and the ones that won't social distance/wear masks/be safe) could go there, not get infected or infect and then not take it all over the US.

The worst part is that those numbers badly underestimate the total impact of the Sturgis Superspreader. Those are just confirmed cases right there in Meade County.
 

jaypatriot

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Not a surprise. Sad, but completely predictable and pathetically unnecessary.

There was really no way to stop it.
You think any authority is going to prevent 250,000 motorcycle riders from coming into S Dakota?
Now we measure the fallout. It is a worthy science experiment.
 

justabubba

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as an aside, here was the comment of one infected at sturgis:
... and one was a volunteer who worked "in a temporary bar situation."
that's like saying Norm volunteered to "work" at Cheers
 

jaypatriot

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yeah, i'm not sure why anyone would think that all those people from all over the country (the deniers and the ones that won't social distance/wear masks/be safe) could go there, not get infected or infect and then not take it all over the US.

Who in the world would stand up to 250,000 bikers wanting to travel to S Dakota?
The governor? Trump? The Sturgis police department?
I know, Sturgis should have recruited the mayors of Minneapolis, Seattle, and Portland to come and give the town advice before they arrived.

Don't you remember Marlon Brando in "The Wild One"?
 

jaypatriot

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yeah, i'm not sure why anyone would think that all those people from all over the country (the deniers and the ones that won't social distance/wear masks/be safe) could go there, not get infected or infect and then not take it all over the US.

why do college kids going back to school think they are invulnerable and do not have to obey school rules?
Maybe the schools should have Biden talk to them. He wants to mandate masks in all schools.
Shirley, they'll listen to him because he is going to make it all better.
 

Tahuyaman

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So what? The virus is in every state. It's still not a threat to 98% of the population and becoming less of a threat.
 

CaughtInThe

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The worst part is that those numbers badly underestimate the total impact of the Sturgis Superspreader. Those are just confirmed cases right there in Meade County.

yeah. it's gonna be really hard to track everywhere that those people spread this thing.



OUR COUNTRY can't get back to normal until we solve the COVID problem. people that spread it (no matter where they are) are crushing people all over the country.
 

CaughtInThe

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why do college kids going back to school think they are invulnerable and do not have to obey school rules?
Maybe the schools should have Biden talk to them. He wants to mandate masks in all schools.
Shirley, they'll listen to him because he is going to make it all better.

college students (just like Sturgis partiers) are spreading it like crazy too.

all they're doing is making it worse and slapping small businesses and people all over the country directly in the face (making it worse and stretching it out longer).


it's really just selfish people.
 

Fiddytree

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Brilliant response.

What else is there to say to people like you? Hundreds of thousands of people dying does nothing to you. Ostracism needs to occur. You're literally a danger to your fellow Americans.
 

Tahuyaman

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What else is there to say to people like you? Hundreds of thousands of people dying does nothing to you. Ostracism needs to occur.

This virus is presents a minuscule to no threat to more than 98% of the population. Hysterical emoting won’t change that.
 
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