South Carolina Primary 21Jan2012 Thread

Purpose is obvious, this thread is for discussion of the South Carolina Primary.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

Too early to say much from polling. Should get a good number of polls in another day or two to get a better picture of what might happen here.

if perry is going to break out it will have to be in sc

santorum will do ok

not so much for romney

huntsman who?


curious to see how well Ron Paul does there

justabubba said:

if perry is going to break out it will have to be in sc

santorum will do ok

not so much for romney

huntsman who?


curious to see how well Ron Paul does there

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With Iowa and NH over and done with, and with such a commanding lead in the polls in Florida, SC really doesn't matter that much- other than that the SC GOP primary winner has been the GOP nominee for the last, oh, who the hell knows how long... but I think SC will be the toughest of these first few primaries for Romney due to the liberal media intent on showing him as a "vulture capitalist" as Perry called him. And some fault can be found, I'm sure, in his business dealings.

My biggest problem with Romney is that I feel he is the conduit to an Obama re-election. I don't think he can beat the president. If he can't beat Obama, he shouldn't be the nominee. (And what does it say about him as a candidate when people think that he doesn't stand a chance against the President with poorer popularity than Jimmy Carter?)

This race will come down to the independent voters as usual. The nutty leftists will vote on the left; the nutty righties will vote on the right. The libertarians, moderates, and independents will split between the two. Romney won't be able to command the swing of these more moderate voters that will be necessary for him to win against Obama.

For now, if the political pundits had any brains in their heads, they would be pumping up their listening audiences- telling them how wonderful Romney is, helping to get them fired up. Instead they say pretty much what I just said. That he doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning in the general election. Combined with the concentrated attacks from the liberal media, this attitude basically constitutes a concession of the general election to Obama before the third primary is completed. Ridiculous

I think it is funny that Stephen Colbert is polling at 5% in South Carolina.

Romney up in South Carolina - Public Policy Polling

Q17 If the Republican candidates for President
were Stephen Colbert, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney,
Rick Santorum, and Buddy Roemer who would
you vote for?
Stephen Colbert.............................................. 5%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 23%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 4%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 8%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 7%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 27%
Rick Santorum................................................ 18%
Buddy Roemer................................................ 1%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 8%

Better yet, he is beating Huntsmen in this poll and he isn't even on the ballot.

Anyone think he will run this year? :2razz:

justabubba said:

if perry is going to break out it will have to be in sc...

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I doubt Perry will achieve a breakthrough. His inept debate performances highlighted by his recent statement that he would again send troops to Iraq finished him off. I would be very surprised if he received 10% or more of the vote. He might be closer to 5%.

I'm suprized that Perry is even being discussed. He is truly the Fred Thompson of 2012. Perry has been out of the running for the last three months. The only question in South Carolina will be whether Romney wins in a close one or by a large margin. While I would prefer someone else getting the nomination, Romney already has the nomination, its just a matter of time. I do disagree with others here though. As an Obama supporter I would much prefer going up against any of the bunch other than Romney. I think Romney is the only one that will give Obama a race.

I like how the "real Republicans" are polling third at best in these Republican primaries after "liberal" Romney and the fringe Ron Paul.

Paschendale said:

I like how the "real Republicans" are polling third at best in these Republican primaries after "liberal" Romney and the fringe Ron Paul.

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but aren't those "real" republicans dividing among themselves about one half of the available votes?
what would then happen if their were to coalesce behind a single "real" republican candidate
say a christie, or a palin, or a jeb bush
at a brokered convention

Thank goodness for South Carolina, because the outcome there may reshape this GOP contest altogether, or at least potentially stall the Romney coronation.

AlanF said:

Thank goodness for South Carolina, because the outcome there may reshape this GOP contest altogether, or at least potentially stall the Romney coronation.

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Sad as it is for me to say it, its likely that SC will be the Romney coronation. IF he loses it doesn't look like it will be by much. If he wins, I personally cannot see why any of the rest of them will bother to stay in, although they might simply because they are not officially eliminated. In reality they will be though.

As much as I would like for Romney to not be the candidate, there isn't anyone else in the field I want to be the candidate either. If you look at the ups and downs of the other candidates prior to the primaries, it was an anti Romney sentiment moreso than people actually getting behind any of the others. It was like they were hoping that candidate X was their man, but then when the focus went on them, their horrific campaign reared its ugly head. Many conservatives are not highly enthused by Romney, but many now are beginning to accept that as far as a campaign and the ability to run one and win, Romney is their best candidate.

Personally I refuse to accept the lesser of the two evils anymore, so as far as voting goes, I will be looking for a 3rd party candidate that I can vote for that doesn't make me feel like I have to shower after voting for them. As far as who wins between Romney and Obama, Its hard for me to care much, neither are going to make any significant changes. Its good if the American people vote out Obama due to his poor performance, but they are voting in someone so close to him. Perhaps they are down to hoping for a more competant person even though there wont be any changes made.

With either of them, unless congress can really get its act together, 4 years from now we are going to be staring down the barrel of Europes mess.

I think it will be Romney with (whichever order) Newt/Sant/Paul. I think Huntsman is stealing some of the Romney vote which is good but I would be surprise if Romney wasn't first.

It's still a over a week away, with the polls being volatile right now, so I would not crown a winner yet. If it is Romney, it is all but all over. He should win Florida, and by then it will be for all intents over.

AlanF said:

Thank goodness for South Carolina, because the outcome there may reshape this GOP contest altogether, or at least potentially stall the Romney coronation.

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It will not.

Romney has the distinct advantage of being the only person in that contest who actually knows what he is doing and how to do it.

donsutherland1 said:

I doubt Perry will achieve a breakthrough. His inept debate performances highlighted by his recent statement that he would again send troops to Iraq finished him off. I would be very surprised if he received 10% or more of the vote. He might be closer to 5%.

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With his obvious lack of communication skills, how is it possible that a candidate like Rick Perry could of run and be elected governor of a major state like Texas?

Don't they have candidate debates in Texas, and if so, is this the best they can produce?

jgarden47 said:

With his obvious lack of communication skills, how is it possible that a candidate like Rick Perry could of run and be elected governor of a major state like Texas?

Don't they have candidate debates in Texas, and if so, is this the best they can produce?

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The reason he did poorly in the early debates, was because he had back problems, and the pain hurt him in the debates.

I am a South Carolinian, and I got to tell you... I still don't know who I'm voting for. I have reservations about all of them.

If what I'm hearing is any indication, though, there might be more Ron Paul support even here in SC than many would expect. There is a lot of talk about him lately. A lot of people who vote but aren't "political wonks" ask me questions in the week or two leading up to the election, and I'm getting lots of questions about Paul. He's discussed a lot on talk radio also.

Goshin said:

I am a South Carolinian, and I got to tell you... I still don't know who I'm voting for. I have reservations about all of them.

If what I'm hearing is any indication, though, there might be more Ron Paul support even here in SC than many would expect. There is a lot of talk about him lately. A lot of people who vote but aren't "political wonks" ask me questions in the week or two leading up to the election, and I'm getting lots of questions about Paul. He's discussed a lot on talk radio also.

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It isn't as big as you think. There is a reason why they are called "Paulbots". They talk about him everywhere!

jgarden47 said:

With his obvious lack of communication skills, how is it possible that a candidate like Rick Perry could of run and be elected governor of a major state like Texas?

Don't they have candidate debates in Texas, and if so, is this the best they can produce?

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seriously? think about the last governor of texas.

Goshin said:

I am a South Carolinian, and I got to tell you... I still don't know who I'm voting for. I have reservations about all of them.

If what I'm hearing is any indication, though, there might be more Ron Paul support even here in SC than many would expect. There is a lot of talk about him lately. A lot of people who vote but aren't "political wonks" ask me questions in the week or two leading up to the election, and I'm getting lots of questions about Paul. He's discussed a lot on talk radio also.

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Interesting. Recent polling from Rasmussen (16%) & ARG (20%) show him growing rapidly. Also SC google the poo out of him after his NH primary speech. It benefits Paul that it is also a OPEN primary. I except him to make third (previously fourth), anything else would be a plus.

From what im hearing their is a lot of Newt signs. I think the social conservative wing is going to abandon Sant and rally behind Newt in SC.

jasonxe said:

Interesting. Recent polling from Rasmussen (16%) & ARG (20%) show him growing rapidly. Also SC google the poo out of him after his NH primary speech. It benefits Paul that it is also a OPEN primary. I except him to make third (previously fourth), anything else would be a plus.

From what im hearing their is a lot of Newt signs. I think the social conservative wing is going to abandon Sant and rally behind Newt in SC.

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Interesting.

Amigo said:

The reason he did poorly in the early debates, was because he had back problems, and the pain hurt him in the debates.

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Oh lame! :2rofll:

AdamT said:

Oh lame! :2rofll:

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Yeah, yeah! Perry, and Bachmann are dumb. But Obama is sooooo smart. Really? There are 50 times more gaffes from Obama than Perry, and Bachmann combined.

Amigo said:

Yeah, yeah! Perry, and Bachmann are dumb. But Obama is sooooo smart. Really? There are 50 times more gaffes from Obama than Perry, and Bachmann combined.

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You really do live in an alternative universe. Whether you like Obama or not, you've got admit that he very rarely produces gaffes. Generally conservatives have to fall back on the "57 states" flub which occurred before he was even President. Perry and Bachman each produced more gaffes in a month than Obama has produced in three years.

AdamT said:

You really do live in an alternative universe. Whether you like Obama or not, you've got admit that he very rarely produces gaffes. Generally conservatives have to fall back on the "57 states" flub which occurred before he was even President. Perry and Bachman each produced more gaffes in a month than Obama has produced in three years.

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I am part of 40% of americans, not in an alternate universe.

Amigo said:

I am part of 40% of americans, not in an alternate universe.

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The 40% of Americans who mistakenly think that Obama makes a lot of gaffes?