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I was watching Bloomberg TV this morning and they had a guest analyst on (didn't get his name) that stated that without a shadow of a doubt that the upcoming recession (due to arrive either later this year or next year) was caused by Trump's Trade War.
I tried to find some recent article that supports that statement but I was unable to do so. Nonetheless, I did find a couple of articles from 2020 and 2019 that do talk about the subject
I do know that recessions are not something that happens overnight. There is usually some "root" cause that gets the ball rolling and sometime over the next couple of years, lo and behold a recession is occurring.
There are certainly established guidelines that talk about the repercussions of trade wars that makes the scenario highly probable. Here is one such example of what Trump's trade war actually did to our economy:
How has trade war affected US economy?
Our trade war escalation and decoupling scenario sees the US economy produce $1.6 trillion less in real GDP terms over the next five years and results in 732,000 fewer jobs in 2022 and 320,000 fewer jobs in 2025.
As such, it can now be safely stated and assumed that Trump's Trade War was a huge miscalculation (mistake) made by our former president.
I tried to find some recent article that supports that statement but I was unable to do so. Nonetheless, I did find a couple of articles from 2020 and 2019 that do talk about the subject
Trade war will lead to global recession: survey
- Seven in 10 manufacturing executives believe an extended trade war will lead to a global recession, with 61% saying the recession is likely this year, according to a LevaData survey of more than 100 manufacturing and production executives across automotive, consumer goods, life sciences, industrial and tech industries.
- Survey respondents expected the electronics, automotive and agricultural industries to "bear the brunt of the trade war," LevaData said.
- Nearly half of respondents said tariffs mean higher costs for goods, services, parts and labor, although they were about equally split on whether tariffs in the long term will lead to economic growth or decline.
Trump's trade war could spark a recession, Goldman Sachs warns
Economists are increasingly worried that the president may have set in motion a chain of events that can’t be controlled.
I do know that recessions are not something that happens overnight. There is usually some "root" cause that gets the ball rolling and sometime over the next couple of years, lo and behold a recession is occurring.
There are certainly established guidelines that talk about the repercussions of trade wars that makes the scenario highly probable. Here is one such example of what Trump's trade war actually did to our economy:
How has trade war affected US economy?
Our trade war escalation and decoupling scenario sees the US economy produce $1.6 trillion less in real GDP terms over the next five years and results in 732,000 fewer jobs in 2022 and 320,000 fewer jobs in 2025.
As such, it can now be safely stated and assumed that Trump's Trade War was a huge miscalculation (mistake) made by our former president.