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Russia's recognition of the independence of Donbass.

Fabiusbile

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Literally, the live broadcast from the Kremlin, where there was a meeting of the Russian Security Council, has just ended.
The entire list of the Security Council, Lavrov, Medvedev, Shoigu, Matvienko and others spoke... everyone is in favor of recognizing the Donetsk and Lugansk republics.
It is obvious that Putin recognizes and an official statement will also be made today at around 9 pm Moscow time, now Putin has retired to make a decision.
I don't know how soon the Western media will react to this, but the main theses are:
1) The Kiev regime refuses to comply with the Minsk agreements and launched a military operation yesterday on 02/20/2022.
2) The West cannot or does not want to force the Kiev regime to comply with the Minsk agreements.
3) Russia is ready to take any retaliatory measures of the collective West.
 

Rogue Valley

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It would surprise no one if Russia stole even more Ukrainian territory. Moscow stole all of Crimea in 2014.

This is how the Putin regime employs its militarism and expansionism... by stealing from weaker neighbors.
 

Juin

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Literally, the live broadcast from the Kremlin, where there was a meeting of the Russian Security Council, has just ended.
The entire list of the Security Council, Lavrov, Medvedev, Shoigu, Matvienko and others spoke... everyone is in favor of recognizing the Donetsk and Lugansk republics.
It is obvious that Putin recognizes and an official statement will also be made today at around 9 pm Moscow time, now Putin has retired to make a decision.
I don't know how soon the Western media will react to this, but the main theses are:
1) The Kiev regime refuses to comply with the Minsk agreements and launched a military operation yesterday on 02/20/2022.
2) The West cannot or does not want to force the Kiev regime to comply with the Minsk agreements.
3) Russia is ready to take any retaliatory measures of the collective West.




Recognition of the Donetsk and Lukhansk Republics may signal a decision in favour of control over Russian Ukraine as opposed to heading all the way to Lviv. That may be good news for Zelensky. He doesn't have to worry about a government in exil in Warsaw. An offensive should aim for Dnieper and Odessa. The Ukrainian littoral and east up to Kiev could be the basis of Russian Ukraine.
 

Fabiusbile

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Recognition of the Donetsk and Lukhansk Republics may signal a decision in favour of control over Russian Ukraine as opposed to heading all the way to Lviv. That may be good news for Zelensky. He doesn't have to worry about a government in exil in Warsaw. An offensive should aim for Dnieper and Odessa. The Ukrainian littoral and east up to Kiev could be the basis of Russian Ukraine.
It is difficult to make any predictions.
It's very serious. In fact, this is the end of the Minsk Agreement, this is the point of no return.
 

Juin

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It is difficult to make any predictions.
It's very serious. In fact, this is the end of the Minsk Agreement, this is the point of no return.



It is very serious. But you must keep in mind the bigger picture. The question of the delimitation of Nato/Eu expansionism. As long as Nato/Eu refuses to place any meaningful limitations to its eastward ambitions, it will remain a threat and source of concern to Russia. The Minsk agreements itself was the product of a tug of war over Kiev. 2014 was a play for Ukraine by Nato/Eu.. It was a partial success for both sides. Nato/Eu got the bulk of Ukraine; Putin was able to retrieve Crimea. The Donbass was up in revolt. The Minsk agreements was a crude temporary settlement of the ambitions of the contending powers.

My take is that Nato/Eu has to decide what are the natural parameters it is prepared to settle for with Russia. Nato/Eu strategy has been to drag things out, nip bits and pieces here and there, always waiting for opportunities to push further and further east. How that is not destabilising and asking for trouble beats me
 

Toggle Almendro

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It would surprise no one if Russia stole even more Ukrainian territory. Moscow stole all of Crimea in 2014.
This is how the Putin regime employs its militarism and expansionism... by stealing from weaker neighbors.
NATO stole Kosovo in 2008.


Recognition of the Donetsk and Lukhansk Republics may signal a decision in favour of control over Russian Ukraine as opposed to heading all the way to Lviv. That may be good news for Zelensky. He doesn't have to worry about a government in exil in Warsaw. An offensive should aim for Dnieper and Odessa. The Ukrainian littoral and east up to Kiev could be the basis of Russian Ukraine.
I've long thought that Odessa was the end goal. That way Russia would control the entire north coast of the Black Sea.

However, that begs the question of what those Russian troops are doing deployed north of Ukraine. Russia would not deploy troops north of Ukraine unless they wanted to take all of Ukraine. Although perhaps Putin is just trying to keep his options open.


:rolleyes:
It's theft. Plain and simple.
The Serbs know exactly how you feel.


No. Theft is theft.
What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
 

jpn

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Literally, the live broadcast from the Kremlin,
Putin is on Russian TV now (Monday night, Moscow)
  • "Putin's Donbas address is unbelievably dark and aggressive. I've watched a lot of Putin speeches, and I don't think I've ever seen one quite like this." --Sam Greene, Professor of Politics, King's College, London
  • "Now he’s griping about Ukraine joining NATO. Ukraine isn’t even close to becoming a member state. He says Ukraine joining would be a direct threat to Russia. It wouldn’t be." [Is Norway?] --Christopher Miller, BuzzFeed
  • "We are getting an intimate glimpse inside the mind of a madman. 'This isn’t an emotional assessment,' Putin says. Uh huh, sure. He’s absolutely raging, airing every single grievance." --Miller
  • Putin is delivering a full-on revisionist history lesson here. It’s all a very thinly veiled threat to Ukraine’s very existence.
  • Putin specifically talking about Russian desire to "punish" perpetrators of "pogroms" that, in his view, followed 2014 EuroMaidan revolution. Part of insane "genocide" narrative--Kovensky, TPM
  • Putin: "The legacy of not just the Soviet Union but the Russian Empire has been squandered."--MacKinnon, Daily Mail
  • this just keeps getting darker--Kovensky
 

j brown's body

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It is very serious. But you must keep in mind the bigger picture. The question of the delimitation of Nato/Eu expansionism. As long as Nato/Eu refuses to place any meaningful limitations to its eastward ambitions, it will remain a threat and source of concern to Russia. The Minsk agreements itself was the product of a tug of war over Kiev. 2014 was a play for Ukraine by Nato/Eu.. It was a partial success for both sides. Nato/Eu got the bulk of Ukraine; Putin was able to retrieve Crimea. The Donbass was up in revolt. The Minsk agreements was a crude temporary settlement of the ambitions of the contending powers.

My take is that Nato/Eu has to decide what are the natural parameters it is prepared to settle for with Russia. Nato/Eu strategy has been to drag things out, nip bits and pieces here and there, always waiting for opportunities to push further and further east. How that is not destabilising and asking for trouble beats me

It's only a threat to Putin's empire aspirations.
 

noonereal

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Recognition of the Donetsk and Lukhansk Republics may signal a decision in favour of control over Russian Ukraine as opposed to heading all the way to Lviv.

What I was thinking yet this would not explain 200,000 troops on 3 sides of Ukraine.
 

jpn

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Mr. Putin also laid out a long history of grievances since the fall of the Soviet Union and the loss of the states that once made it up.
“We gave these republics the right to leave the union without any terms and conditions,” Putin said. “This is just madness.”

In Putin's muddled mind, Ukraine owes Russia for all the "support" is provided during the USSR occupation.
In truth, being under the thumbs of the USSR held Ukraine and the other member nations from advancing economically and politically into the modern world.
 

noonereal

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It is very serious. But you must keep in mind the bigger picture. The question of the delimitation of Nato/Eu expansionism. As long as Nato/Eu refuses to place any meaningful limitations to its eastward ambitions, it will remain a threat and source of concern to Russia. The Minsk agreements itself was the product of a tug of war over Kiev. 2014 was a play for Ukraine by Nato/Eu.. It was a partial success for both sides. Nato/Eu got the bulk of Ukraine; Putin was able to retrieve Crimea. The Donbass was up in revolt. The Minsk agreements was a crude temporary settlement of the ambitions of the contending powers.

My take is that Nato/Eu has to decide what are the natural parameters it is prepared to settle for with Russia. Nato/Eu strategy has been to drag things out, nip bits and pieces here and there, always waiting for opportunities to push further and further east. How that is not destabilising and asking for trouble beats me

At least you understand that teh West has continued to push East. I have been speaking to that here for weeks and all seem oblivious. As if Putin just woke up one day and said, "WTF, let's start a war."
 

jpn

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My take is that Nato/Eu has to decide what are the natural parameters it is prepared to settle for with Russia. Nato/Eu strategy has been to drag things out, nip bits and pieces here and there, always waiting for opportunities to push further and further east. How that is not destabilising and asking for trouble beats me
That's such a Russian-centric viewpoint. Imagine you're in the Baltic states. Would you feel comfortable with Russia on your border, considering the past 1,000 years of history?

Was it really a matter of NATO pushing, or was it more a matter of nations feeling threatened and asking NATO to come protect them?
 

jpn

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At least you understand that teh West has continued to push East. I have been speaking to that here for weeks and all seem oblivious. As if Putin just woke up one day and said, "WTF, let's start a war."
Under Putin, Russia has occupied portions of Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and has effectively annexed Belarus and has security control of Kazakhstan.

Putin continues to push to reestablish a greater Russian empire based on the territories of the old USSR. Asking for NATO protection is what any sane people would do.
 

noonereal

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Under Putin, Russia has occupied portions of Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and has effectively annexed Belarus and has security control of Kazakhstan.

Putin continues to push to reestablish a greater Russian empire based on the territories of the old USSR. Asking for NATO protection is what any sane people would do.

And?
 

j brown's body

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At least you understand that teh West has continued to push East. I have been speaking to that here for weeks and all seem oblivious. As if Putin just woke up one day and said, "WTF, let's start a war."

He wants an empire.
 

Juin

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Recognition of the Donetsk and Lukhansk Republics may signal a decision in favour of control over Russian Ukraine as opposed to heading all the way to Lviv. That may be good news for Zelensky. He doesn't have to worry about a government in exil in Warsaw. An offensive should aim for Dnieper and Odessa. The Ukrainian littoral and east up to Kiev could be the basis of Russian Ukraine.


I've long thought that Odessa was the end goal. That way Russia would control the entire north coast of the Black Sea.

However, that begs the question of what those Russian troops are doing deployed north of Ukraine. Russia would not deploy troops north of Ukraine unless they wanted to take all of Ukraine. Although perhaps Putin is just trying to keep his options open.
.


The deployment of troops north of Ukraine actually makes perfect sense militarily. Ukraine cannot ignore the presence of Russian troops just north of Kiev. This will tie down Ukrainian troops that will otherwise be deployed elsewhere.

This is actually same play like back in 2014 when Putin took Crimea. Before the Crimean seizure, a military maneuver by Russia placed a huge Army off Ukraine, to the north east and east of Ukraine. Kind of akin to a threatening army sitting on Ukraine's left shoulder, just as Ukraine, if she intended at the time to contest the Crimean seizure, would have been sending troops to the south. That was checkmate. It left Ukraine with one option for contesting Crimea; attacking east towards Russia where a Russian Army was sitting. That Ukraine was not gonna do. finis
 

Juin

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Mr. Putin also laid out a long history of grievances since the fall of the Soviet Union and the loss of the states that once made it up.
“We gave these republics the right to leave the union without any terms and conditions,” Putin said. “This is just madness.”

In Putin's muddled mind, Ukraine owes Russia for all the "support" is provided during the USSR occupation.
In truth, being under the thumbs of the USSR held Ukraine and the other member nations from advancing economically and politically into the modern world.


So what next? There is a tendency to see the whole matter as an academic debate when it is not. Ok, lets say Russia and its Dictator have a muddled mind, and full of bull; what next? The uncomfortable reality is that it is hard, if not impossible to dismiss the concerns of big powers. To tell them they are stupid, is pointless. Mind you Russia is not unique in that previledge. The US went rogue on the world in Iraq as well.
 

Rexedgar

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I’m thinking maybe Putin has gotten what he wanted. Two divisions or so in Belarus and effectively tucking the two separatist regions into his pocket.
 
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Juin

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My take is that Nato/Eu has to decide what are the natural parameters it is prepared to settle for with Russia. Nato/Eu strategy has been to drag things out, nip bits and pieces here and there, always waiting for opportunities to push further and further east. How that is not destabilising and asking for trouble beats me


That's such a Russian-centric viewpoint. Imagine you're in the Baltic states. Would you feel comfortable with Russia on your border, considering the past 1,000 years of history?

Was it really a matter of NATO pushing, or was it more a matter of nations feeling threatened and asking NATO to come protect them?


I largely have made the pro Russian, or Russian-centric viewpoint as you put it. Not because I hold Russia superior to the west. I dont. But I do believe the Russian side of the argument is far too often absent in western debates on Russia. Even if Russia is wrong, and Russia can be wrong in many cases, then where and what she is wrong in should be accurately demonstrated.

On the Baltic states. Of course, it is not fair to them. They have a right to be free from Russian domination. But Russia also has a right not to tolerate a foreign, hostile military alliance set up shop on its borders. On that Russia is in the right; the US will do the same if a hostile military alliance tried to set up shop off the US.

So we have a case of the rights of the Three Baltic midgets in conflict with the security interests of the dangerous bear next door. Castro's Cuba was in same spot back in '62.
 

Juin

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I’m thinking maybe Putin has gotten what he wanted. Two divisions or so in Belarus and effectively tucking the two separatist regions into his pocket.


Someone pointed out another complication that so far has not been making it into the discussions. The two separatist regions claim as their extent, not just the actual estate they sit on, they claims extend to the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
 
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