OK. You still havent answered the question tho.
Moving on......
I will give you my take on it that I posted in the thread Ukrainian war topic, I don't answer superficial questions:
--- > War will be over when:
a) Zelensky wakes up to reality, negotiates with the help of the Americans and Israelis a solution to get all the russian troops out of western Ukraine
which is the most important thing so they don't install a puppet government.
b) Zelensky will not wake up to reality, in which case he will
not negotiate, will end up in a city in the far western of Ukraine and while he tweets many civilians will lead an insurgent war for months/years to follow. In the meanwhile the Russians will be able to install a puppet government in Kyiv and get their FSB people in every branch of government.
--- > I am noticing something interesting on Twitter, I will call it the Centrist Poll based on reading comments:
a) Some on the right and elements of the far right in the western world are not as ready to say Putin is wrong. If it was a Sadam Hussein or Asaad they would probably be screaming on forums to go to war
"to defend freedom". With Putin they see in him probably a conservative man or the Russian trolls are doing their jobs. There are many, though
far right militias that will join the war which brings me to the second interesting thing i noticed:
b) Some on the left and elements of the far left are ready to let go to their anti-war sentiments and advocate for NATO intervention which will lead to nuclear war. To realize this phenomen, a Belarus far right militia posted a video of going to war against Russia supporting Ukraine. Some individuals with rainbow flags were posting at the bottom with
love hearts, "let's go" and obviously the picture of Zelensky. What?!?
Mental Warfare. If this can work in the west imagine how the security intelligences are working inside Ukraine and Russia.
--- > The CIA director said Putin in his opinion had 4 false premises:
a) Putin thought Ukraine is weak
--- > Yes, the Ukrainian military was rotated around the Middle East, they were not a dormant military. They have experience on how to use the new generation equipment that NATO is using.
--- > Putin underestimated the civilian population which is fighting side by side with the army. This is done by a great campaign by the Ukrainian side to appeal to the nationalistic sentiment and that this is a global fight hence you have thousands of foreign volunteers going in.
b) He thought that the russian economy will resist the sanctions
--- > In my opinion too early too tell. Short term yes, however if the Chinese will move in they will offer alternatives to the payment system + McDonalds.
c) He thought Europe is distracted
--- > Yes, i would add that in my view Putin thought Europe was weak and the division between left and right is so bad that we will turn on each other. He calculated wrong, I don't think there was an event in recent times that united political fractions like Vlad did.
d) He thought the russian army was modernized and efficient
--- > Very possibile when you surround yourself only with people that tell you what you want to hear and propagandists this is what you get. You don't get the full picture.
Today is day 14th of the war. On the piece of paper that leaked from the Russian Military is that they estimated the war will take 14 days. So we will see what will happen and when will the russians take over. The CIA has credibility as they announced this attack weeks before it happened.
Their analysis concluded that Putin is frustrated.