Republicans did not lose the last two cycles because the fundies failed to turn out, they lost because a big piece of the middle voted against them.
I disagree, strongly.
The loss 2006 because of depressed turnout due to dissatisfaction from the base (in this case, the fiscal and governmentally conservative base. As I said, FOCUSING on social issues is bad too) along with numerous scandals (Macaca is the only thing that did in Allen, the Foley scandal, etc) along with the War in Iraq was FAR bigger issues in 2006's loss than anything to do with Social issues.
The loss in 2008 again had little to do with social issues. Indeed, the only thing that saved McCain and made him relevant in the last few months was bringing in a socially conservative person in Palin. If you want me to dig out my post showing the bumps that occured thanks for Palin upon her announcement I'll be happy too. McCain was SUNK last year before the convention even happened and the only thing that made him survive to election time was Palin's appointment.
McCain's issue was still some depression in the turnout due to unhappiness with him, mixed with the extremely charismatic opponent in Barack Obama that out messages and out manuevered McCain greatly. Obama got the middle not because they were "voting against" the social agenda of Republicans but because he was an extremely Charismatic Cult of Personality that appealed to those that had little vested interest in politics due to his pop culture appeal.
The majority of those in the "Middle" that complained about Palin being the reason they'd never vote for McCain are also people that, even if he would've picked someone like Romney or Vitter, would've STILL voted for Obama anyways.
Nothing in the past two cycles tell me that their social agenda keeps them from getting the middle. What it tells me is that FOCUSING on a social agenda alone alienates conservatives and independents that don't hold that as their main thing.
Why, specifically, why in light of the obvious gains available in the middle ?
Because I think you're premise is completely and entirely flawed. The middle does not vote against republicans because they're against abortion and against gay marriage.
I think SOME might, I think some don't care, I think some are attracted to that. The "middle" is not "liberals".
I think the issue is that when they focus PRIMARILY on the social thing they lose some of hte middle, but that's the same if they primarily focus on anything.
Lets say you ahve a middle section that cares about:
1. Pro-Choice
2. Fiscal Responsability
3. As little government involvement as possible.
4. Government Welfare and support programs.
5. Strong Military
6. Pro-Life
7. Alternative Energy
8. For gay marriage
9. Against gay marriage
10. For civil unions
If your PRIMARY focus is anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, pro-government enforced morals, etc. AKA a mostly full on social agenda you're having a chance for #6 and #8 but are hard up for the rest.
If you completely ignore the abortion issue, the gay marriage issue, and other social issues you have a good shot at getting no one from #6 or #8.
However, if you have a balanced message that focus on fiscal responsability, abortion only in case of rape/incest/mothers life in danger, for giving marriage SOULY to the church but instituting civil unions as the universal government coupling method, and persuing other forms of energy including nuclear and our own oil you suddenly have a chance of getting 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 with an okay chance for 8, 9, 10 and an off shot at a few in 1.
Drop the social portions of that out, and you lose 6, 8, 9, and 10 voters as somewhat likely to likely to vote for you.
That hurts you.
You are going off the assumption that no independents or moderates care about social issues. You back this up with nothing. NOTHING I've seen show that there are not moderate or independents that do have a conservative view in regards to social issues.
You are going off the assumption that social conservatives will still come out to vote in seemingly just as large of a group if you don't address their issues. Nothing I've seen shows that to be true, and I frankly don't believe it. I'm sure at first a number will still show up to vote, but over time yo'ull see it shifting over to a 3rd party vote or simply not showing up at the ballot box...just like those currently disenfranchised in the republican party that vote libertarian because the portions of the platform they care about have been relegated to near non-existance.
No Way to Square This with the Pro-Life Litmus test. That 25%-33% has absolute veto power now, and gets pandered to with the likes of Palin, and thus loses the ballgame.
You're wrong. I can't really say it any more than that. Palin did not cost McCain the election, its just not the case. If anything it made him competitive for as long as it did. McCain would've lost by a landslide instead of just a bad loss if it wasn't for Palin. Theres nothing that I've seen that make me honestly believe he would've pulled a substantial amount of moderates that he didn't pull already, and yet the polls CLEARLY showed that the interest in Palin got republicans and conservatives interested and active out in voting for McCain that previously were uncaring about him.
Dropping Social Conservatism from Republicanism is as idiotic and longterm harmful to the party as dropping the fiscal, governmental, or militaristic views of the party would, and have, hurt the party.