RG 3, Luck, or Russel Wilson?

[WI Crippler]

I've gotten to watch all 3 play a little this year, and I have a feeling this may be the best group of three rookie QBs we have seen since the '83 class (Kelley, Marino, Elway). I'm really not sure who is the best. I have to admit a bit f homerism for Wilson since he came to Wisconsin for a year of college football. Luck has probably gotten more done with less than anyone, and RG3 is the most dynamic, although I think his style will lend him to a higher risk of injury in the future.

Assuming health is not a factor, which one would you want to lead your team over the next 10 years?

 

[code1211]

I've gotten to watch all 3 play a little this year, and I have a feeling this may be the best group of three rookie QBs we have seen since the '83 class (Kelley, Marino, Elway). I'm really not sure who is the best. I have to admit a bit f homerism for Wilson since he came to Wisconsin for a year of college football. Luck has probably gotten more done with less than anyone, and RG3 is the most dynamic, although I think his style will lend him to a higher risk of injury in the future.

Assuming health is not a factor, which one would you want to lead your team over the next 10 years?

With unashamed bias living in Indy, it's Luck.

The guy is working on a team with a coach stricken by cancer and absent, several rookies at key positions on both sides of the ball, several 4th Quarter comebacks and the intangibles of leadership and community involvement. He is a cliche machine in interviews and never says the wrong thing.

On every great pro team there is one guy that everybody looks to and thinks, as long as he's in the game, we have a chance. Luck is THAT GUY.

He followed Manning in Indy. I liked Manning, but by comparison, Manning suffers. Luck is all about team. Manning was more about Manning.

Luck is the real deal and just Too Good to Be True.

I'll take him, though and just hope we will never find he's got feet of clay.

 

[VanceMack]

I don't think you can go wrong with any of them. I would say Luck solely because he has the pure pocket presence and QB ability that RG3 hasn't developed and as a result, RG3 is going to have to either change his game or will have a much shorter career. I think he has the skills to be a great QB and pure QB with the talent to escape trouble and avoid losses that Luck doesn't have. Once/If he develops the mindset that he needs to start a slide BEFORE he gets wiped out he should be fine. Until then...he puts himself and his team at risk. Russel Wilson on the other hand...give me another year with great results and we'll see. He has no doubt been a surprise and a great find and I think Seattle made a wise choice. I think Kaepernick in San Fran will turn out to be a strong QB as well. This group could be fun to watch over the next 10 years.

 

[ecofarm]

I think Kaepernick in San Fran will turn out to be a strong QB as well. This group could be fun to watch over the next 10 years.

Don't forget Tannehill.

Quite a class of QBs, it seems.

I'd take RGIII. I don't care how short his career is, he's ring bound.

 

[soccerboy22]

I'm leaning Luck with him breaking the rookie passer record Sunday, but honestly I think Wilson might have the best resume. He's been the NFLs best. That has got to say something.

 

[Zyphlin]

Well, we've had the voice for Wilson and Luck so I guess I'll go in for RG3.

There's two general methods that people seem to be judging this race by....Stats and raw success. My argument is that RG3 wins either of those two arguments.

Stats

RG3 ranks 1st amongst Rookies (and 5th amongst ALL QB's) in Completion Percentage
He's got the lowest amount of Int's of any year long starting Rookie. Almost 1/4th of what Luck's thrown and half of what Wilson has thrown. Of full year starters, he actually leads the league
Passer rating is #2 in the league and #1 amongst Rookies
Yards per attempt? #1 in the league
Number 1 amongst rookies in EPSN's "Total QBR", number 6 overall

As a note...that Passer Rating and Completion Percentage stats could very well end up setting NFL rookie records

The two things he trails in, with regards to passing? He's second in total yards, behind Luck. And he's third in TD's behind Wilson and Luck. However, in terms of both standard evaluations of QB's (traditional Passer Rating and Total QBR) Griffin exceeds them both and is far less turnover prone.

One of the common arguments by Colt's fans is that "Well, Griffin throws less, that's why he throws less Int's". A poor argument. Luck throws an Int once every 33 passes, Wilson every 34, while RG3 throws one every 75. On the flip side, RG3 is averaging a TD pass roughly every 19 passes compared to 28 and a half for Luck (Wilson leads this at 1 for every 15). So even if we take into account that RG3 throws less passes, it still doesn't change the fact he turns the ball over FAR less.

Now, this is JUST passing. This isn't even taking into account his rushing stats. Robert Griffin III is the 21st leading Rusher in the NFL. Not QB, rusher in general. Names like Ryan Matthews, Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray, Willis McGahee, and others are all below him in terms of rushing yards. He's 200 yards behind the Running Back picked after him, Trent Richardson. He has 50 more than the nearest other QB and 300 more over the next Rookie. He's got more rushing TD's than Matt Forte or Stephen Jackson. He's lost 2 fumbles compared to 3 for Wilson and 5 for Luck.

Griffin's passing stats place him above the other two by themselves. The rushing stats push him above and beyond.

Success

People sometimes say "It's win's and comebacks that matter, not raw stats". Okay, lets look at that.

First, people like to talk about the "strength" of the team in question. They point to the Colts being a 2 win team last year as proof of that. However, one year can easily be an anomaly based on injuries, motivation of players, etc. The colts from 2007 to 2010 ranged from 10 to 13 wins. They fell to 2 wins last year and then this year are back up around 10 wins. Meanwhile, the Redskins best finish in the past 5 years was 9 wins in 2007 then 8 in 2008. Then came a 4, 6, and 5 win seasons before this years 9-6 current record. Were the Colts a bad team last year? Yes. Do they have a young core? Yes they do. Do they still have people like Wayne, Freeny, Mathis, Bethea, Redding, and others who've been there for the good years? Yes.

Yes, taking the Colts to 10 wins is an impressive feat. But the Colts went from good to horrible to good again in a three years span. The Redskins have been mediocre, at best, for 4 years before this year.

Second, let's look at things contributing to these records. The Colts have played the easiest schedule in the entire league. The Seahawks have played the 23rd hardest. The Redskins? They've played the 7th hardest schedule. While it's true, you have to beat who you play...a little consideration should be given when ones entire argument is based around "record". Further, Offense is only one side of the field. When talking about Wilson, one has to take into account the Defense. He has the 4th best defense in YPG and top defense in terms of Points per game. The Colts are 26th and 22nd while the Redskins are 28th and 21st, respectively.

Third, even the record talk itself...talked up so much early on in the year...is a wash now. All three are relatively close and while the Colts and Seahawks may end up with more wins, it's possible that RG3 is the only one out of that group to win their Division (one that includes the former years Super Bowl Winner).

In conclusion, RG3 has faced a tougher field of competition than Luck and Wilson and did so with a far worse defense than Wilson has had, while in the end taking his previously consistently poor team to a record comparable to the other two star rookies and a potential division championship.

Final

Wilson and Luck are both great QB's who, in any other year, would be running away with this award. But however you want to slice it, be it stats or success, RG3 has to be the guy walking away with the award this year.

 

[Gipper]

I take Luck, hands down. He has all the tangibles you could want from a QB moving forward. He doesn't have RG3's raw speed, but talent-wise I'd put him ahead of the rest, not to mention he has the height, build, arm, etc.

 

[Zyphlin]

Whoops, that's what I get reading this over the weekend sporatically. I thought it was talking about ROTY.

In terms of over the next ten years....I'd say it's a toss up between Luck and RG3. If you told me 6-8 years I'd probably say RG3, if you told me 12 to 14 years I'd probalby say Luck.

I think RG3 is probably a sliver behind Luck in terms of pure passing skills. I think right now he more than makes up for it in terms of his legs, but that will leave him open to injury and that will go away a bit over time. I still think he can be an elite QB without the wheels, but I think it'll be a finer line for him between Very Good and Elite in that instance.

I do think this QB class could be the third in the discussions that include 1983 and 2004, but only time will tell. However, signs are looking good at this point and it's nice to see a surge of new young play callers having success all across the NFL.

 

[24107]

Russel Wilson hands down. He is an excellent Passer and Runner. But his intelligence and decison making sets him apart from RG3 and Luck. RG3 might not even make the playoffs. Luck will most likely be 1 and done. Wilson has the potential to lead his team deep in the playoffs, wilson shredded the top defenses in the NFL.

 

[justabubba]

I've gotten to watch all 3 play a little this year, and I have a feeling this may be the best group of three rookie QBs we have seen since the '83 class (Kelley, Marino, Elway). I'm really not sure who is the best. I have to admit a bit f homerism for Wilson since he came to Wisconsin for a year of college football. Luck has probably gotten more done with less than anyone, and RG3 is the most dynamic, although I think his style will lend him to a higher risk of injury in the future.

Assuming health is not a factor, which one would you want to lead your team over the next 10 years?

Cam

and rookie of the year should go to Luke Kuechly - IF it is based on merit

 

[Zyphlin]

Cam

and rookie of the year should go to Luke Kuechly - IF it is based on merit

There's two seperate awards. Defense and Offense

 

[Zyphlin]

Russel Wilson hands down. He is an excellent Passer and Runner. But his intelligence and decison making sets him apart from RG3 and Luck. RG3 might not even make the playoffs. Luck will most likely be 1 and done. Wilson has the potential to lead his team deep in the playoffs, wilson shredded the top defenses in the NFL.

RG3 may not make the playoffs in part because of a 28th in the league defense as opposed to the #4 ranked defense that Wilson has behind him. He also didn't get a gift win by Replacement Ref's that is assuring him a record that's going to place him in the playoffs regardless what happens in the final game of the year. RG3 didn't have his coaching staff trying to not "over expose" him early in the year, which was evident in his stat line during the first half of the season compared to this second half. Not to mention his "intelligence" is hard to measure (unconfirmed wonderlic scores have him under luck by a large margin and just slightly over RG3, but the better decision maker has tossed twice as many INT's as RG3.

Wilson's had a very good year and is looking like a Stud, but you're massively over rating his entire contribution to that teams success

 

[24107]

RG3 may not make the playoffs in part because of a 28th in the league defense as opposed to the #4 ranked defense that Wilson has behind him. He also didn't get a gift win by Replacement Ref's that is assuring him a record that's going to place him in the playoffs regardless what happens in the final game of the year. RG3 didn't have his coaching staff trying to not "over expose" him early in the year, which was evident in his stat line during the first half of the season compared to this second half. Not to mention his "intelligence" is hard to measure (unconfirmed wonderlic scores have him under luck by a large margin and just slightly over RG3, but the better decision maker has tossed twice as many INT's as RG3.
Wilson's had a very good year and is looking like a Stud, but you're massively over rating his entire contribution to that teams success

Wilson is also more durable than rg3 like you said, he has not missed a game. Wilson is also about to set a rookie record for most touchdown passes, surpassing the great peyton manning. And wilson has only ten int's which means he averages less than 1 int per game. And you really think the seahawks would be where their at without wilsons excellent qb play? you are downplaying his significance to the team because you are an uber biased redskins fan(avatar)..no shame in that though, just saying. eace

p.s. dont forget wilson shredded top defenses in the nfl. that is a big deal.

 

[Zyphlin]

Wilson is also more durable than rg3 like you said, he has not missed a game.

Rather small sample size to state this at that point. At this point, you're correct. Still, a lot to be seen still in terms of career as they're styles are similar. However, this goes back to Carroll's statement that early in the season they were trying not to "overexpose" Russell where as from Week One RG3 was pretty much the focal point of the entire team and the read-option package (That Carroll's admitted to getting inspiration from the Redskins to use) has been heavy all season long for RG3 where it's only been heavy for Wilson the past few weeks.

Wilson is also about to set a rookie record for most touchdown passes, surpassing the great peyton manning.

That's correct. Luck's already passed Manning in one Rookie Record as well. And RG3's also broken a rookie record (in terms of QB rushing). RG3's also set to potentially break the Rookie record in terms of completion percentage and overall Passer Rating.

And wilson has only ten int's which means he averages less than 1 int per game.

Which is still twice of what RG3 has thrown. Ten is still a great number for a Rookie, but it pulls into question your broad comment about Wilson being a better "Decision Maker"

And you really think the seahawks would be where their at without wilsons excellent qb play?

They'd be a LOT closer to where they're at then the Redskins would be without RG3 or the Colts would be without Luck. Unless Luck has been playing in the secondary for Seattle and I missed it.

you are downplaying his significance to the team because you are an uber biased redskins fan(avatar)..no shame in that though, just saying. eace

Oh no, not at all. Russell has DEFINITELY been significant to his teams success. They were trying not to "overexpose" him early in the season because he was still growing as a QB and, no surprise, they were still VERY good at home but were worse on the road (Loss at Arizona, at St. Louis, at San Fran, and at Detroit). On the contrary, once Russell began to improve and get onto his roll and Carroll felt more comfortable relying on him more, the team began to pick up wins on the road at a higher clip while still dominating at home (at Chicago, at Buffalo).

The Seahawks would likely not be challenging for the NFC West Divisional championship if they didn't have Russell and quite possibly woudn't even be a playoff team. He definitely makes the team more dangerous, providing a legitimate passing attack to go with that nasty defense and very good running game.

It's not that I'm over valuing him....it's that I'm realistically valuing his surrounding cast. Russell Wilson improves that team...but that defense that's ranked 4th in the league wouldn't magically be 28th if he wasn't there. (For example, Seattle was 9th last year)

Where as Luck and RG3 both have far less of a supporting cast around them and are much more important to their teams current success. Wilson's operating off the 4th best defense...Luck has the 24th and RG3 has the 28th. That's a HUGE difference. Wilson had last years #7 running back who is #2 this year....RG3 has a 6th round rookie (whose 4th currently) and Luck's running game is laughable.

I think Russell is having a great year and is a perfect fit for Seattle. I've said in the other NFL thread that Seattle scares me in the playoffs and I honestly think they are possibly my second pick in the likely playoff teams right now to potentially win it all after Denver. I stated he'd be Offensive ROY easily in most any other season.

But statistically RG3 is doing better than him in everything but TD passes (and Luck's over him in many of them as well). In terms of "winning" and other such measures....both of those guys have had less to work with than Russell Wilson, are not too far off from him in terms of record (especially considering the Fail Mary pass game), and have had the weight of the offense placed on their shoulders ALL YEAR rather than having their coaches using them as a game manager in the early half of the season to get up to speed.

This isn't about me being a Redskins fan....you can talk to the other people in the NFL thread, I bleed burgundy and gold but I'm a rather level headed fan....it's about me being realistic to the surrounding casts, the strength of schedule, the stats, and the season as a whole.

 

[wolfman24]

Well if Rodgers went down for good I would have to stick with my home boy Russell

 

[mak2]

Luck is almost too good to be true, but I think he is. I was thinking the other day he might have girls tied up in his basement or something. If not, I beleive he is the real deal.

With unashamed bias living in Indy, it's Luck.

The guy is working on a team with a coach stricken by cancer and absent, several rookies at key positions on both sides of the ball, several 4th Quarter comebacks and the intangibles of leadership and community involvement. He is a cliche machine in interviews and never says the wrong thing.

On every great pro team there is one guy that everybody looks to and thinks, as long as he's in the game, we have a chance. Luck is THAT GUY.

He followed Manning in Indy. I liked Manning, but by comparison, Manning suffers. Luck is all about team. Manning was more about Manning.

Luck is the real deal and just Too Good to Be True.

I'll take him, though and just hope we will never find he's got feet of clay.

 

[code1211]

Wilson is also more durable than rg3 like you said, he has not missed a game. Wilson is also about to set a rookie record for most touchdown passes, surpassing the great peyton manning. And wilson has only ten int's which means he averages less than 1 int per game. And you really think the seahawks would be where their at without wilsons excellent qb play? you are downplaying his significance to the team because you are an uber biased redskins fan(avatar)..no shame in that though, just saying. eace

p.s. dont forget wilson shredded top defenses in the nfl. that is a big deal.

He also does it quietly and his manner is pretty much like he's just punching the clock and doing his job. I watched him at Wisconsin and he was the real deal there and when he tried on the NFL, found that it was not too big to fit.

If I had any of these guys on my team, I'd have a pretty successful career as a coach.

As Bud Grant said, "To be a good coach in the NFL, you need a patient wife, a loyal dog and a great quarterback. Not necessarily in that order."

 

[Zyphlin]

If I had any of these guys on my team, I'd have a pretty successful career as a coach.

That's really the point here. People are nit picking the three but in the end the three are having great years and looking like they have the potential to be good to great QB's in this league for years to come. In most other years any of the three could've easily been the front runner for the Offensive ROY.

The success of RG3 and Wilson this year, alongside Kaepernick, and combined with Cam's success last year (and Tebows as well tbh) I think is also going to potentially help change the standard convention of QB's and offenses in the NFL over the next few years.

I'm happy for Wilson getting drafted and having the chance to start. He seems like a really good guy and always happy to see a talented guy get the chance to showcase his stuff. On a selfish level though, I'm kind of disappointed for my Skins because the word is that they were hoping to pick him up in the pick they picked up Cousins with the idea of grooming him as a backup playing the same kind of game plan they use with RG3 so that if Griffin was injured they could keep rolling with the same offense with another good young cheap QB.

I've been pleased with Cousin's performance as a backup...but won't deny that Griffin as the #1 with Wilson backing him up as the #2 would've been un-freaking-believable and likely would've helped lead us to a rather nice draft pick 3 years into his contract.

 

[VanceMack]

That's really the point here. People are nit picking the three but in the end the three are having great years and looking like they have the potential to be good to great QB's in this league for years to come. In most other years any of the three could've easily been the front runner for the Offensive ROY.

The success of RG3 and Wilson this year, alongside Kaepernick, and combined with Cam's success last year (and Tebows as well tbh) I think is also going to potentially help change the standard convention of QB's and offenses in the NFL over the next few years.

I'm happy for Wilson getting drafted and having the chance to start. He seems like a really good guy and always happy to see a talented guy get the chance to showcase his stuff. On a selfish level though, I'm kind of disappointed for my Skins because the word is that they were hoping to pick him up in the pick they picked up Cousins with the idea of grooming him as a backup playing the same kind of game plan they use with RG3 so that if Griffin was injured they could keep rolling with the same offense with another good young cheap QB.

I've been pleased with Cousin's performance as a backup...but won't deny that Griffin as the #1 with Wilson backing him up as the #2 would've been un-freaking-believable and likely would've helped lead us to a rather nice draft pick 3 years into his contract.

The flip side to that is that there are plenty of instances where bad coaches did not thrive with talented QBs and in fact squandered in some cases destroyed their careers. Ryan Leaf springs to mind as does jeff George( I know thats kind of a swear word to you). You mentioned Tebow...really good example. John Fox recognized the hand he had been dealt and played to that strength. Ryan on the other hand has completely blown any type of cohesive QB situation with all three quarterbacks this year. Matt Cassel is another example, as is Kevin Kolb. Tons of talent...bad situations and bad coaching.

 

[Zyphlin]

That actually opens up one of the really interesting possible storylines next year....

What happens if Bruce Arians, based on his job as interim head coach, gets a job as the top guy at another team next year? And, coinciding with that, Luck has a sophomore slump. I wonder what that does in terms of the view of Chuck Pagano as a head coach and Luck as well.

In a similar fashion, what happens if Kyle Shanahan takes another job? Will the next O-Coordinator for the Redskins do as well of a job of mixing the Pistol / Read Option with a pro-style offense to best utilize Griffin's skill set as Kyle has this year?

 

[WI Crippler]

I'm happy for Wilson getting drafted and having the chance to start. He seems like a really good guy and always happy to see a talented guy get the chance to showcase his stuff. On a selfish level though, I'm kind of disappointed for my Skins because the word is that they were hoping to pick him up in the pick they picked up Cousins with the idea of grooming him as a backup playing the same kind of game plan they use with RG3 so that if Griffin was injured they could keep rolling with the same offense with another good young cheap QB.

I've been pleased with Cousin's performance as a backup...but won't deny that Griffin as the #1 with Wilson backing him up as the #2 would've been un-freaking-believable and likely would've helped lead us to a rather nice draft pick 3 years into his contract.

I hated Cousins while he was at MSU because he was that good. Always gave us fits.

Wilson might have the better surrounding cast, but he had a harder task coming in. He wasn't drafted to "be the guy" like RG3 or Luck. He was expected to backup the big money QB in Matt Flynn. Wilson had to beat out an NFL vet(albeit a career backup for Rodgers) for a starting job, which means he was splitting reps early on in summer/fall camp. Russel Wilson has every intangible you'd want in a QB, and can make all the throws. If he was 6 ft instead of 5'10", he would have been a top 10 pick. But he saw over the massive OL at Wisconsin (avg height of 6'6") and set the NCAA passer rating for the season, so I am not sure why height was ever the issue for NFL scouts.

I'm not saying any of the other two wouldn't have been just as successful in Seattle, but RW had to overcome bias against small QBs, and unseat the likely starter. RG3 and Luck were annointed starters from the day they crossed the draft stage.

 

[poweRob]

I've gotten to watch all 3 play a little this year, and I have a feeling this may be the best group of three rookie QBs we have seen since the '83 class (Kelley, Marino, Elway). I'm really not sure who is the best. I have to admit a bit f homerism for Wilson since he came to Wisconsin for a year of college football. Luck has probably gotten more done with less than anyone, and RG3 is the most dynamic, although I think his style will lend him to a higher risk of injury in the future.

Assuming health is not a factor, which one would you want to lead your team over the next 10 years?

Probably Luck. Although I'd probably hold out for that freak of nature down at Texas A&M, Manziel.

 

[poweRob]

With unashamed bias living in Indy, it's Luck.

The guy is working on a team with a coach stricken by cancer and absent, several rookies at key positions on both sides of the ball, several 4th Quarter comebacks and the intangibles of leadership and community involvement. He is a cliche machine in interviews and never says the wrong thing.

On every great pro team there is one guy that everybody looks to and thinks, as long as he's in the game, we have a chance. Luck is THAT GUY.

He followed Manning in Indy. I liked Manning, but by comparison, Manning suffers. Luck is all about team. Manning was more about Manning.

Luck is the real deal and just Too Good to Be True.

I'll take him, though and just hope we will never find he's got feet of clay.

Manning is all about Manning? The guy makes the whole team better. He's a natural leader. I like Luck and think he can become a Manning-like leader and I'm impressed with how well he's done thus far but I think your bias for Luck is clouding your vision of what and who Manning is as a QB/team-leader.

 

[austrianecon]

I am a Redskins fan.. so I am sorta biased here but I'll lay out a reason why I'd take RGIII over Luck or Wilson.

1) Everybody knew Luck was going to Indy (to start, no). RGIII was drafted to start and Redskins gave up draft picks for him (2nd round pick in 2012, 1st round picks in 2013 and 2014). So more was expected from RGIII then Luck right off the bat. If RGIII was a flop this year everybody would have been talking about it. Luck would have been given a pass as being put in a difficult position.

2) RGIII didn't have a "running back". While the Colts didn't have one of much caliber either, they at least had season vets at the position. So what do the Redskins do... they start a 6th round draft pick, Alfred Morris.

3) Redskins were dead in the water 8 games ago. RGIII lead the team to 6 of the next 7 wins to make the playoffs (could have been 7 but injury kept him on the sidelines).

4) Redskins have a horrible defense by the numbers.

When you look at it all in all.. Nobody thought Alfred Morris would run for 1,600 yards, RGIII would throw for 3,100 yards or even have the 2nd best QB rating in the league, or even the Skins are in the playoffs? It's because of 2 rookies, RGIII and Morris, that they are. Luck and Wilson have many talents, RGIII didn't have. RGIII has up and coming WRs and one who's at the end of his career (Moss).

I think RGIII will win a ring in his career. He might end up being another Doug Williams. But in the end Wilson and Luck will not win a ring with their teams.


And Alfred Morris should be RoY.

 

[code1211]

Manning is all about Manning? The guy makes the whole team better. He's a natural leader. I like Luck and think he can become a Manning-like leader and I'm impressed with how well he's done thus far but I think your bias for Luck is clouding your vision of what and who Manning is as a QB/team-leader.

I didn't say ALL about Manning. I said MORE about Manning. I think that any list of top ten all time would have Manning on it. Maybe all three Mannings.

In 5 years when it's time to pay Luck again, he may do the 98 million per year thing, too. When Manning was in Indy, he took every snap in every practice and pretty much did whatever he wanted to do. As it happens, what he wanted to do was be the best QB in the league and set every record in the book while winning a Super Bowl and collecting 98 million per year.

When his coach was Dungy, that worked alright, but a lesser coaching staff was run over by him. The team was hollow and when Manning went down, it turned out there was no team there at all.

The new front office here is dynamic and absolutely top shelf. Indy looks to be a factor along with the other best organizations in the league for years to come. Ryan Grigson is a miracle worker. There are rookies all over the field and in key positions and the Colts are 11-5 and in the play-offs.

Whoops! This was supposed to be about Luck. He's pretty good, too.