The problem with percentages here though is that I believe fewer people are identifying themselves as republicans (and perhaps as democrats as well).. so its not surprising that Trump may have a higher percentage of republicans willing to vote for him.. but its a shrinking number of republicans.
I think that having republicans.. particularly prominent and popular republicans.. that speak out against trump.. will make it easier for former republicans..and those that are on the fence with trump.. hold their nose and vote for Biden over trump
You're correct as far as I'm concerned. If one goes by Gallup, in Nov 2016 Republicans made up 27% of the electorate to 31% for the Democrats. As of 12 Aug 2020, the numbers Gallup gives is 26% Republican, 30% Democratic. Independents made up 40% in 2016 and as of 12 Aug 2020. That's just part of the story.
In 2006 the numbers were Republicans 31%, Democrats 37%, Independents 30%. It's that last group that catches my eye. A growth of 10 points or percentage since 2006 while the Democrats lost 7 points and the GOP lost 4. As a result I think there is much more involved here than just Trump. It seems to me that a lot of folks don't want to identify themselves with either party as they once did.
Bare with me, independents can be broken down into three groups, independents lean Republican, independents lean democratic and pure or true independents with no leans. Out of the 30% of the electorate who identified themselves as independents in 2006 8 leaned toward the Republicans, 11 toward the Democrats and 11 with no leans, as true or pure independents. Which would put Republicans and Republican leaners at 39%, Democrats and Democratic leaners at 49% in 2006 with 11% actually true or pure independents with no leans.
2020 breaking down independents, 16 out of the 40 lean toward the Republicans, 18 out of 40 toward the Democrats with only 6% being true or pure independents with no leans. The total is 42% making up Republicans and leaners, 48% making up Democrats and Democratic leaners. In other words, both major parties have shrunk, but those who left still identify as independent leaners with their former party. The number of true independents have also shrunk.
History has shown on average 90% of those who identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats will vote for their party's candidates regardless of who that is. But leaners vote on average 70% of the time for the party's candidates they lean toward. An easy equation if one desires to figure out the popular vote which I use in my monthly forecasts.
I think the bottom line here is that more and more people are reluctant to identify with either major party today, but the majority who were proud to state their party affiliation back in 2006, most still vote for candidates of their old affiliation although today, they want to be known as independents. Make sense? Numbers are fascinating to me.
