Rasmussen: Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally

[ReubenSherr]

If I remember correct, trumps decent chance of winning was given to him by 538 right before the election, as before that they pretty much held him at having no chance in hell. So much that other forecasters called 538 off their rocker for last minute jumping trump up to near 30% chance to win, in the end 538 did end up being right and every other forecaster got it way off.

My guess is 538 will increase trumps odds of winning right before the election, by doing what they did last time, counting in the polls and factoring in errors and variables.

538 gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on Election Day four years ago.

I wouldn't worry too much about their predictions.

 

[beerftw]

538 gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on Election Day four years ago.

I wouldn't worry too much about their predictions.

Going by the polls that would be fairly accurate, the polls said hillary had it in the bag, 538's estimates figured in variables, like probability of polls being wrong and the extent the polls could be wrong, so the 28% was based off polls saying hillary had it in the bag, but the probability of polls getting it wrong, with things like surprise last minute undecided voters or issues with polls not capturing the proper demographics. Others had hillary at 90-96% chance to win and wrote off trump victory as impossible, while 538 put it at a slightly above 1 in 4 odds of trump winning.

 

[Anagram]

Trump's numbers in PA are slightly up, though. Even in light of all the events this week.

Quinnipiac is throwing out some crazy numbers, not sure what to make of them.

On what basis are Trump's numbers in PA slightly up? He was averaging a 4-5% deficit most of the way through September before getting to a 6% deficit around the time of the debate. Since the debate there have been 7 polls that made it on to RCP with Biden leading by an average of 7.4%. Four of the seven polls show Biden doing better than his average on 9/29. Even if you were to only focus on the the three polls that show Biden doing slightly worse than his average, (which would be a mistake in my view. If Biden's lead were actually increased 1-2% you would still expect to find a couple polls at or below his original average), he improved the mid-September poll in Reuters/Ipsos and stayed the same in the CNBC/Change Research poll.

On a separate note, the polls would have to be much more fundamentally wrong than they were in 2016 for Trump to carry Pennsylvania. They did not really overestimate Hillary's share of the vote in PA in 2016, but the undecideds and other votes seemed to bleed substantially to Trump. This time, in 7 of the 8 polls currently used by RCP, Biden is at 50%+. And in the 8th he's at 49%. For Trump to win this time the polls actually need to be doing something they were not doing in 2016, in overestimating Biden's support.

 

[Ethel2]

Not at all. It scares me.

But Biden has a good chance of winning. IF this week's polls are not just a knee jerk reacting to Trump being hospitalized.

Trump is still gaining in Ohio and Arizona, and Fox has his approval at 47%.

I am not expecting Biden to win Ohio. I do expect him to win PA, AZ, MI, and WI.
Fl and NC are toss ups. Even without them Biden still wins.
Fox may have his approval at 47%, but I don’t think anyone else does. Most of his disapproval ratings have been around 55%. Its not quite over yet. I would give Biden about an 80% chance of winning as of now.

 

[ClaraD]

We'll see if 4 weeks.

Not even 4 weeks now...26 days...tik tok tik tok

 

[ClaraD]

This reminds me of the 2012 election. You guys just couldn’t believe that Romney wasn’t going to win. Just would not accept that the electorate was going to go for Obama again. Saw quite a few hilarious meltdowns that November. I guess you got your own back in 2016. But it really looks like it’s going the other way this time. Of course things might change between now and Nov 3rd so I’ll just enjoy the spectacle of Republican foot stamping until then.

All the but he's a black Muslim terrorist from Kenya nonsense Trump and his ilk puked out is why Obama won

 

[TomFitz]

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 12 points in a new national survey from Rasmussen, the conservative outlet that has historically found the race to be closer than other pollsters.

Among likely voters, Biden takes 52 percent support in the latest Rasmussen survey, compared to 40 percent for Trump.

Trump's collapse in the Rasmussen poll is significant because the president has often pointed to the survey as an example of how he was performing stronger than other polls give him credit for. Biden is bolstered in the latest survey by an 18-point advantage among independent voters.

Rasmussen: Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 12 points in a new national survey from Rasmussen, the conservative outlet that has historically found the race to be closer than other pollste…

thehill.com

+++++++++++++++++

I'm reminded of another poster who said how accurate Rasmussen was in the last election....

Rasmussen has a historic pattern of ”refining“ its polling in the closing days of every Presidential campaign.

They’re the consistant GOP outlier for nearly four years. And then, magically, just before each Presidential election, they start sounding like everyone else.

And, after the election is over, they brag about how accurate they were.

Then they go back to building polls to produce the results their right wing clients dictate in advance.

 

[TomFitz]

Why isn't it? A REpublican you hate, Confidence that your candidate could never loose to such a troglodite. Your candidate is an entrenched Washington swamp creature. Comfort in the fact that you candidate is most qualified candidate in history. Every poll telling you that your candidate is going to win. All your media telling you your candidate is going to win. No, nothing like 2016

For four years, I have asked Trumpsters to define “the swamp”. Every time I ask, the Trumpster runs away.

The “swamp” is one of Trump’s empty slogans. He never defined it. His base doesn’t know what it is. They get the dog whistle. They know that “the swamp” is whoever Trump is mad at on any given day.

As for the influence peddling, lobbying, and back door world of Washington, Trump thrives on that. The Trump Administration is the most openly corrupt Administration in American history. Much of it still remains in examined.

I suspect you’ll be hearing a lot more about Wilbur Ross, Sonny Purdue, Ben Carson and a few others before too much longer.

 

[MTAtech]

CNN puts Biden over 290.

Biden crosses 270 threshold in CNN's Electoral College outlook for first time

Joe Biden is surging in the battle for the White House with less than four weeks to go until Election Day.

www.cnn.com

 

[tres borrachos]

I guess Rasmussen isn't Trump's favorite poll anymore.

 

[Rawley]

For four years, I have asked Trumpsters to define “the swamp”. Every time I ask, the Trumpster runs away.

Perhps when you start the concservation with childish name calling, they understand you are not a serious poster worthy of any response.

 

[Dans La Lune]

Again, there is nobody in America who believes the bumbling senile asshat is leading the highly accomplished and popular Trump by 12. You leftwingers don't even believe it.

Trump is a train wreck of a president, a fascist and a walking public health risk. That Biden isn't 30 points ahead is troubling.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Perhps when you start the concservation with childish name calling, they understand you are not a serious poster worthy of any response.

Trump and his base are talking about Hillary Clinton this morning, a day after he released a video saying he has a drug that cures covid.

Ya’ll are lucky we talk to any of you for any reason.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Trump is a train wreck of a president, a fascist and a walking public health risk. That Biden isn't 30 points ahead is troubling.

What @Mashmont is saying is he’s just gonna insist the election was stolen after Joe wins. That’s all.

 

[Rawley]

Trump and his base are talking about Hillary Clinton this morning, a day after he released a video saying he has a drug that cures covid.

Ya’ll are lucky we talk to any of you for any reason.

You're nutz, but at least you don't use that "Trumpster' bullshit. It's childish and signals tht you are not serious. What are they talking about Hillary for?

 

[Aunt Antifa]

You're nutz, but at least you don't use that "Trumpster' bullshit. It's childish and signals tht you are not serious. What are they talking about Hillary for?

He is a dementia-riddled outpatient.

 

[Rawley]

He is a dementia-riddled outpatient.

WHere's the part about Hillary?

 

[hindsight]

Again, there is nobody in America who believes the bumbling senile asshat is leading the highly accomplished and popular Trump by 12. You leftwingers don't even believe it.

Says a lot about Trump if a "bumbling senile asshate" is beating him.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

WHere's the part about Hillary?

If you had clicked on that link you would have seen the thread that contained all the audio from this morning.

If you buy a pack of gum later, let me know. I’ll explain to you how chewing works.

 

[Rawley]

If you had clicked on that link you would have seen the thread that contained all the audio from this morning.

If you buy a pack of gum later, let me know. I’ll explain to you how chewing works.

Your videos didn't have anything to do with Hillary

 

[Khayembii Communique]

538 gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on Election Day four years ago.

I wouldn't worry too much about their predictions.

This thread is about Rasmussen, who was the most accurate pollster in 2016 according to your own words, and is now polling Biden +12. This particular post is just precious.

" Personally, I’m watching the trend on Rasmussen. If they have Biden up by double digits, after he is released from the hospital, Trump is in trouble. " ReubenSherr

 

[TomFitz]

Perhps when you start the concservation with childish name calling, they understand you are not a serious poster worthy of any response.

If you don’t like being called a Trumpster, don‘t be one.

But since labeled for your loyalty to your candidate is apparantly an insult, that may be a reflection on the standing of your candidate.

 

[Ethel2]

This thread is about Rasmussen, who was the most accurate pollster in 2016 according to your own words, and is now polling Biden +12. This particular post is just precious.

" Personally, I’m watching the trend on Rasmussen. If they have Biden up by double digits, after he is released from the hospital, Trump is in trouble. " ReubenSherr

Ask and you shall receive. Today on fivethirtyeight Biden is up a a HUGE margin: 11-18 points. Thats going to be tough to overcome. And now the jackass is saying he won't attend a virtual debate. You know what: he will. He has to. He has to do SOMETHING to try to move the needle. Of course, it won't work because every time he opens his mouth people are seeing more clearly what a true jackass he is.
You would think that the republicans would come up with a better candidate.