Putin is NOT crazy and the Russian invasion is NOT failing. The West's delusions about this war - and its failure to understand the enemy - will prevent it from saving Ukraine, writes military analyst BILL ROGGIO
Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.S. Army and New Jersey National Guard
Wishful thinking has the upper hand in the battle to shape Western perceptions of the war in Ukraine.
Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian strategy, and even baseless claims from amateur psychoanalysts that Putin has lost his mind.
A more sober analysis shows that Russia may have sought a knockout blow, but always had well-laid plans for follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.
The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in part, to this tragedy in Ukraine.
We must be clear-eyed now that the war is underway.
Yet even the professionals at the Pentagon are letting sympathy cloud their judgement.
Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback.
DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.
But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.
could be.I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.
He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.
Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO
ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.www.dailymail.co.uk
could be.
either way he is going to take Ukraine unless we act somehow to further stop him, or his own soldiers refuse to go forward or something. we should prepare for this as it seem our leaders appear unwilling to take further measures.
so, the real question is... what happens after that?
You are right, Ukraine will fall within the next two weeks, but what happens after that. First, this whole thing shows the weakness of the Russian military. And if this is going to plan, it was a very bad plan and it was a show of power, but poor planning. the American military would have been in the capital within a week. Will the Ukrainians just bow down to the Russians, or will it be another Afghanistan for the Russians. We will see. And Putin and the Russians have already paid a high price for attacking Ukraine and some of those sanctions will continue in the future. The Russian economy was not strong to begin with and it will be hurting for years even if some of the sanctions are removed.I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.
He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.
Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO
ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.www.dailymail.co.uk
You are right, Ukraine will fall within the next two weeks, but what happens after that. First, this whole thing shows the weakness of the Russian military. And if this is going to plan, it was a very bad plan and it was a show of power, but poor planning. the American military would have been in the capital within a week. Will the Ukrainians just bow down to the Russians, or will it be another Afghanistan for the Russians. We will see. And Putin and the Russians have already paid a high price for attacking Ukraine and some of those sanctions will continue in the future. The Russian economy was not strong to begin with and it will be hurting for years even if some of the sanctions are removed.
You are having a picnic, a bear approaches so you toss him a little piece of meat so he will be good and go away and the bear takes it but, now the bear is now eyeing the picnic table. What do you think happens next?Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.
You are right, Ukraine will fall within the next two weeks, but what happens after that. First, this whole thing shows the weakness of the Russian military. And if this is going to plan, it was a very bad plan and it was a show of power, but poor planning. the American military would have been in the capital within a week. Will the Ukrainians just bow down to the Russians, or will it be another Afghanistan for the Russians. We will see. And Putin and the Russians have already paid a high price for attacking Ukraine and some of those sanctions will continue in the future. The Russian economy was not strong to begin with and it will be hurting for years even if some of the sanctions are removed.
You are having a picnic, a bear approaches so you toss him a little piece of meat so he will be good and go away and the bear takes it but, now the bear is now eyeing the picnic table. What do you think happens next?
You are having a picnic, a bear approaches so you toss him a little piece of meat so he will be good and go away and the bear takes it but, now the bear is now eyeing the picnic table. What do you think happens next?
Like I said, there should be a negotiated settlement between Russia and the West, whereby Western Ukraine's security and neutrality are both guaranteed. Both should be interlinked.
Why should we take his word that that's where he'll stop? He lied the whole way up to the invasion.
What happens if Finland and/or Sweden joins NATO?
Why should we take his word that that's where he'll stop? He lied the whole way up to the invasion.
What happens if Finland and/or Sweden joins NATO?
Who pays you to post?I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.
He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.
Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO
ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.www.dailymail.co.uk
It's a good question. Another useful question is why didn't they join NATO before? What were their reasons?
Just like the CIA lied us into Iraq. Shock and Awe. WMD's. Bad man with scuds. Ukraine isn't important enough for us to fight WW3, that's what Joe Brandon said.
I guess they better hand out grenades like the Ukrainians did. Too bad Joe left all those weapons for the Taliban to scoop up.
I bet you'd be all for ceding these areas back to Mexico, because they are historically Mexican. Right?Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.
China invades Taiwan.
LWJ is still up and running - if you want to check the latest episode of their podcast Generation Jihad, it's a verbal discussion of this topic.I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.
He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.
Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO
ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.www.dailymail.co.uk
Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.
China invades Taiwan.
Them hating the modern world is the only conclusion I can find.Putin has already lost. He just does not know it yet. Why are some people so keen to come here and defend or rationalize Putin? That is the more interesting question for a forum like this one.
You're dreaming. The current negotiations are for show. Putin doesn't want eastern Ukraine — if he did he would have taken it and stopped. Putin wants Ukraine. He'll try to negotiate Russia's way back from all the sanctions after he takes Ukraine, not before.Like I said, there should be a negotiated settlement between Russia and the West, whereby Western Ukraine's security and neutrality are both guaranteed. Both should be interlinked.
Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.
Why on earth would “the West” negotiate with Russia to give Russia part of the Ukraine?Like I said, there should be a negotiated settlement between Russia and the West, whereby Western Ukraine's security and neutrality are both guaranteed. Both should be interlinked.
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