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Productivity Slump Threatens Economy’s Long-Term Growth

DA60

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'Measure’s longest losing streak since 1979 could keep Fed from raising rates to past levels


The longest slide in worker productivity since the late 1970s is haunting the U.S. economy’s long-term prospects, a force that could prompt Federal Reserve officials to keep interest rates low for years to come.

Nonfarm business productivity—the goods and services produced each hour by American workers—decreased at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter as hours worked increased faster than output, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

It was the third consecutive quarter of falling productivity, the longest streak since 1979. Productivity in the second quarter was down 0.4% from a year earlier, the first annual decline in three years. That was a further step down from already tepid average annual productivity growth of 1.3% in 2007 through 2015, itself just half the pace seen in 2000 through 2007, and the trend shows little sign of reversing.

“In the short term, it’s hard to be anything other than pessimistic, just because this has been going on for so long now,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at consultancy Capital Economics.

Productivity is a key ingredient in determining future growth in wages, prices and overall economic output. It has slowed dramatically since the information technology-fueled boom of the late 1990s, when strong productivity gains translated into robust growth for household incomes and the overall economy.

The slowdown in recent quarters has likely been reinforced by weak business investment in new equipment, software and facilities that could help boost worker efficiency.

Over time, persistently weak productivity would weigh on American living standards by restraining the economy’s ability to grow quickly and generate higher incomes without stoking too much inflation. Already, some economists say slow productivity may be restraining wage growth.'


NA-CL183_PRODUC_16U_20160809164806.jpg


Productivity Slump Threatens Economy?s Long-Term Growth - WSJ


Thoughts?
 
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DA60

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This is what happens when you have gigantic amounts of cheap money sloshing around (companies buyback stocks for quick profits instead of investing in the future) and forced, government pay rises which mean higher costs for a set amount of production (among other reasons).

And anyone who thinks this is not a big deal - if it continues, and it probably will (overall) for the foreseeable future - simply does not understand what it means.
 

DA60

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the chart is misleading productivity is still high and is steadily increasing

20150725_USC166.png


Overworked America: 12 Charts That Will Make Your Blood Boil | Mother Jones

Your post is apples and oranges.

You are (I assume) trying to spin the stat as there are hundreds of ways to theoretically measure productivity.

But there is only ONE official measure of labor productivity. And the OFFICIAL measure of labor productivity is dropping fast...according to the government.

'Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of
real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees,
proprietors, and unpaid family workers.'


Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2016, Preliminary
 
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SailaWay

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as i was saying the media and entertainment industry working with liberalism to bring them money by brainwashing and addicting as many low IQ people as possible...... and that is why hillary can do anything monstrous and still no problem for the voters

bringing in low IQ population helps to work this brainwashing system by the media... the media and entertainment drugs out and addicts the lower wisdom population and this then makes them waste so much time.... the internet does this also...

this all can be predicted because the MEDIA is a FOR PROFIT industry they will always works the system for their money agenda and this is how they make their money.. to drug out and addict the population

I've already posted up on this harmful situation and so corrupt by the media
 

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'Measure’s longest losing streak since 1979 could keep Fed from raising rates to past levels


The longest slide in worker productivity since the late 1970s is haunting the U.S. economy’s long-term prospects, a force that could prompt Federal Reserve officials to keep interest rates low for years to come.

Nonfarm business productivity—the goods and services produced each hour by American workers—decreased at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter as hours worked increased faster than output, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

It was the third consecutive quarter of falling productivity, the longest streak since 1979. Productivity in the second quarter was down 0.4% from a year earlier, the first annual decline in three years. That was a further step down from already tepid average annual productivity growth of 1.3% in 2007 through 2015, itself just half the pace seen in 2000 through 2007, and the trend shows little sign of reversing.

“In the short term, it’s hard to be anything other than pessimistic, just because this has been going on for so long now,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at consultancy Capital Economics.

Productivity is a key ingredient in determining future growth in wages, prices and overall economic output. It has slowed dramatically since the information technology-fueled boom of the late 1990s, when strong productivity gains translated into robust growth for household incomes and the overall economy.

The slowdown in recent quarters has likely been reinforced by weak business investment in new equipment, software and facilities that could help boost worker efficiency.

Over time, persistently weak productivity would weigh on American living standards by restraining the economy’s ability to grow quickly and generate higher incomes without stoking too much inflation. Already, some economists say slow productivity may be restraining wage growth.'


NA-CL183_PRODUC_16U_20160809164806.jpg


Productivity Slump Threatens Economy?s Long-Term Growth - WSJ


Thoughts?

that spike in the middle came with the great invention of computers and the internet.... but soon that great help is turning into even less help because the media and entertainment industry is drugging out and addicting the population and making them WASTE TIME and NOT PRODUCE

also when inventions comes many then become rich and try to protect their rich's by stopping other inventions that can harm their current money system.. this is happening strong today and this is why TRUMP is being hammered by both sides because he is like teddy roosevelt who understands how a nation must stop monopolies that then stops new inventions and competition that pushes the nation forward

the media and entertainment industry is the biggest cause of the productivity drop.. they are drugging out the population and making the nation not work and just waste time
 

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Your post is apples and oranges.

You are (I assume) trying to spin the stat as there are hundreds of ways to theoretically measure productivity.

no thats whats your trying to do productivity is up, its at record highs since 1970's your chart records percentage change from the previous quarter, yet another obscure stat republicans are using to twist the fact that the economy is doing great, last one to come out of the right wing AM radio echo chamber was, average growth of business contractions, before that it was labor force participation rate, they do it because people who dont know what theyre reading see a misleading chart like yours and thinks productivity is down, which "sounds bad" so your posting it as if too say obamas economy is bad boo obama when in reality your not even sure what productivity even is.

I honestly can't wait too see what obscure stat rush limbaugh and the boys are going to start babbling about next? maybe the diaper rash indicator or speed contractors return calls or the Latvian hooker index? All are just as relevant as this statistic and all just as unrelated to who is president as the next
 

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no thats whats your trying to do productivity is up, its at record highs since 1970's your chart records percentage change from the previous quarter, yet another obscure stat republicans are using to twist the fact that the economy is doing great, last one to come out of the right wing AM radio echo chamber was, average growth of business contractions, before that it was labor force participation rate, they do it because people who dont know what theyre reading see a misleading chart like yours and thinks productivity is down, which "sounds bad" so your posting it as if too say obamas economy is bad boo obama when in reality your not even sure what productivity even is.

I honestly can't wait too see what obscure stat rush limbaugh and the boys are going to start babbling about next? maybe the diaper rash indicator or speed contractors return calls or the Latvian hooker index? All are just as relevant as this statistic and all just as unrelated to who is president as the next

the only reason the stock market is not falling like a rock is because of europe stock markets falling like a rock and then the investors work america's stock market more..... euro nations have lost on average over 16% of their value over a year even tho the last month a correction up somewhat .. but 16% a year is a huge loss and the reason is liberalism brings down nations and productivity

lower productivity brings higher costs
 

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'Measure’s longest losing streak since 1979 could keep Fed from raising rates to past levels


The longest slide in worker productivity since the late 1970s is haunting the U.S. economy’s long-term prospects, a force that could prompt Federal Reserve officials to keep interest rates low for years to come.

Nonfarm business productivity—the goods and services produced each hour by American workers—decreased at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter as hours worked increased faster than output, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

It was the third consecutive quarter of falling productivity, the longest streak since 1979. Productivity in the second quarter was down 0.4% from a year earlier, the first annual decline in three years. That was a further step down from already tepid average annual productivity growth of 1.3% in 2007 through 2015, itself just half the pace seen in 2000 through 2007, and the trend shows little sign of reversing.

“In the short term, it’s hard to be anything other than pessimistic, just because this has been going on for so long now,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at consultancy Capital Economics.

Productivity is a key ingredient in determining future growth in wages, prices and overall economic output. It has slowed dramatically since the information technology-fueled boom of the late 1990s, when strong productivity gains translated into robust growth for household incomes and the overall economy.

The slowdown in recent quarters has likely been reinforced by weak business investment in new equipment, software and facilities that could help boost worker efficiency.

Over time, persistently weak productivity would weigh on American living standards by restraining the economy’s ability to grow quickly and generate higher incomes without stoking too much inflation. Already, some economists say slow productivity may be restraining wage growth.'


NA-CL183_PRODUC_16U_20160809164806.jpg


Productivity Slump Threatens Economy?s Long-Term Growth - WSJ


Thoughts?

I am still thinking about these things, but maybe a broader look would help:

OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2016 - en - OECD

This is somewhat long and complicated, but quite detailed in its focus on EU economies (here Spain). Whether the forum is the best point to look at the different questions of the report, it does give a feeling for them.
http://www.bde.es/f/webpi/SES/seminars/2016/files/sie1613.pdf

I do not want to say that rules of thumb do not lead to relatively good opinions. But they must be tested every time, before signing up on a policy.
 

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gallup is also showing how the govt and media are lying like dogs

////////////////

Real Unemployment
9.7%
+0.1
Gallup Good Jobs
47.1%
-
Engaged at Work
31.1%
+0.4
Economic Confiden
 

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My Wife's company [major international employer] does this exactly thing. Before planning a huge R&D project, she let them know up front that she would work as fast as humanly possible but if she missed the projected timeline, that they might want to reconsider all the layoffs and forced retirements they perpetrated.
 

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gallup is also showing how the govt and media are lying like dogs

////////////////

Real Unemployment
9.7%
+0.1

Ummm that is a government figure...the U-6 alternative measure of underutilization. It measures how much potentially available labor is not being used to the fullest extent: meaning it includes people who have jobs but aren't working as much as they want, and people who might enter the labor force soon, but currently are not trying to work.

[qutoe]Gallup Good Jobs
47.1%
[/quote] This is a fairly useless statistic. It's the percent of the total population who works 30+ hours a week at a steady job. That's pretty arbitrary and misleading to say those are "good jobs."

But how do you think that shows government stats to be wrong?

Engaged at Work
31.1%
+0.4
And this is a subjective measure of how happy people are at work (and the U.S. at 31.1% is one of the highest in the world).
Again, nothing to do with government data.
 

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Ummm that is a government figure...the U-6 alternative measure of underutilization. It measures how much potentially available labor is not being used to the fullest extent: meaning it includes people who have jobs but aren't working as much as they want, and people who might enter the labor force soon, but currently are not trying to work.

[qutoe]Gallup Good Jobs
47.1%
This is a fairly useless statistic. It's the percent of the total population who works 30+ hours a week at a steady job. That's pretty arbitrary and misleading to say those are "good jobs."

But how do you think that shows government stats to be wrong?


And this is a subjective measure of how happy people are at work (and the U.S. at 31.1% is one of the highest in the world).
Again, nothing to do with government data.[/QUOTE]

the govt says the unemployment rate is 4.9%or something gallup says its 9.7% who is telling the truth?
 

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the govt says the unemployment rate is 4.9%or something gallup says its 9.7% who is telling the truth?
Gallup is quoting a government number for the 9.7%. It's measuring something completely different.
The Unemployment rate is the number of people not working who are available and looked for work in the last month (the unemployed) divided by the unemployed plus the employed (the Labor Force).
The 9.7% is the U-6 measure of underutilization: Unemployed plus people who want and are available for work who have looked for work in the last year but not the last month (the marginally attached) plus people who want to and are available to work 35+ hours but worked fewer than 35 hours due to slow work or couldn't find full time job (part time for economic reasons) divided by the labor force plus the marginally attached.

Apples and oranges.
 

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My Wife's company [major international employer] does this exactly thing. Before planning a huge R&D project, she let them know up front that she would work as fast as humanly possible but if she missed the projected timeline, that they might want to reconsider all the layoffs and forced retirements they perpetrated.

Same here. Anecdotal, but from what I see, more work is being done by fewer people, with less hours.

So, if GDP is not down, it seems counter intuitive to suggest that production is down, unless we suggest fluctuations in pricing is a culprit. Which, I will say, in the grocery business, at least, most things are significantly cheaper this year over last. My company comps over LY is break even or even down some weeks, but tonnage or product sold is WAY up, with payroll remaining relatively unchanged.

Ergo, productivity has increased. At the company I work at, anyway.
 

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Gallup is quoting a government number for the 9.7%. It's measuring something completely different.
The Unemployment rate is the number of people not working who are available and looked for work in the last month (the unemployed) divided by the unemployed plus the employed (the Labor Force).
The 9.7% is the U-6 measure of underutilization: Unemployed plus people who want and are available for work who have looked for work in the last year but not the last month (the marginally attached) plus people who want to and are available to work 35+ hours but worked fewer than 35 hours due to slow work or couldn't find full time job (part time for economic reasons) divided by the labor force plus the marginally attached.

Apples and oranges.

the dishonesty comes with the change in what makes the unemployment rate...... 4.9% comes from the change.... if not for the dishonest change it would be 9.7% like gallup shows and that is why they say.. the REAL unemployment rate

and the drop like a rock with productivity is agreeing with the 9.7% and we have a horrible economy
 

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the dishonesty comes with the change in what makes the unemployment rate...... 4.9% comes from the change....

What change? The definition hasn't had any major changes since 1967. One minor change in 1994. The other components of the U-6 have never been part of the unemployment rate. The dishonesty is Gallup calling the U-6 the "real unemployment" rate.
 

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What change? The definition hasn't had any major changes since 1967. One minor change in 1994. The other components of the U-6 have never been part of the unemployment rate. The dishonesty is Gallup calling the U-6 the "real unemployment" rate.

This then PROVES the media being dishonest in putting out the 4.9% number.. proving they are crooked to help liberalism govts

telling the other figure 9.7% would hurt the liberal govt .. a proven totally RIGGED SYSTEM we now KNOW
 

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This then PROVES the media being dishonest in putting out the 4.9% number.. proving they are crooked to help liberalism govts

Only in your mind.

telling the other figure 9.7% would hurt the liberal govt .. a proven totally RIGGED SYSTEM we now KNOW

The 9.7 figure is not the measurement of unemployment. It contains the unemployment rate, along with other measurements. How are you not able to understand this point, after it has been laid out on multiple occasions?
 

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Only in your mind.



The 9.7 figure is not the measurement of unemployment. It contains the unemployment rate, along with other measurements. How are you not able to understand this point, after it has been laid out on multiple occasions?

have you heard the media putting out the 9.7% number equal to the 4.9% number??? have you?? if not then that proves crookedness to help liberals in power
 

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This then PROVES the media being dishonest in putting out the 4.9% number.. proving they are crooked to help liberalism govts

telling the other figure 9.7% would hurt the liberal govt .. a proven totally RIGGED SYSTEM we now KNOW
ummm using the same measure as every other president is rigging the system? How?
 

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Only in your mind.



The 9.7 figure is not the measurement of unemployment. It contains the unemployment rate, along with other measurements. How are you not able to understand this point, after it has been laid out on multiple occasions?


as you say its the unemployment RATE.. the media says the unemployment rate is 4.9% and never says the other way of figuring 9.7% proving total crookedness to help liberal govts
 

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ummm using the same measure as every other president is rigging the system? How?


each govt adminstration wants to look good..... and they will all go with the lower rate.... BUT BUT the media must not work to help a current govt and must report BOTH rates.. if not they are supporting the current govt and NOT the people who wants to know how bad the economy is

and now we see how the productivity is dropping like a rock showing that 4.9% figure should not be the real figure
 

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the crooked part is the media will not report BOTH RATES and only the lower one in order to help the current system
 

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each govt adminstration wants to look good..... and they will all go with the lower rate.... BUT BUT the media must not work to help a current govt and must report BOTH rates.. if not they are supporting the current govt and NOT the people who wants to know how bad the economy is

and now we see how the productivity is dropping like a rock showing that 4.9% figure should not be the real figure
Which rate better shows what percent of people who could be working are not?
 
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