How many people voted in 2020 and 2016?4 republicans and 2 non-party people voted.![]()
One question found that most Americans were "dissatisfied" or "angry" with the path of the country.
"In conventional terms, it would be a miracle that Kamala Harris could win with that kind of headwind."
I want to see how that affects Nate Silver's model4 republicans and 2 non-party people voted.![]()
I would caution all those showboating for their candidate based on early voting and mail-in ballots to not read much, if anything, into it. Republicans have been coached to vote early and so they are, both at the polls and in mail in ballots. However, there are studies that show these are merely votes that would have been cast on election day ... as happened to Trump in 2020.
And polling hasn't improved for Trump in the last few weeks, but it has for Harris. Here is the NS model run... Trump's tiny lead is mostly gone in Penn, Georgia has eroded for Trump since last week (losing nearly a percentage point but still one percentage point ahead). It appears he may flip Nevada but that isn't enough.
The NS computer model now says it is truely 50-50.
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Its now about turnout and the degree, if any, polls don't account for individuals who are silent on their true intentions.
There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or they had voted for Trump.”
“However, when it came to sharing their views on camera, they didn't want to.”
Who cares? This means at least one third of the republicans voted for Kamala.How many people voted in 2020 and 2016?
Amazing. Pure 50-50. How often does that occur?
This has to be the closest polling in history. After pollsters missed the hidden Trump vote in 2016 and 2020, we will see it this time they got it right... especially as they are all herding.
Direction of Country type questions are stupid because it never changes and you need follow up questions. If you did they'd be different in the same way on how Dems and Reps see are the most important issues. Go back and look at polling In Oct 2020 and 2016. Answers are the result of a divided nation.
By the way, look at polling on the question in 2022. It was worse than now and didn't factor much in the midterms. Misleading question with misleading connotations.
Exit Polling is fine, just don't like Direction of the Country questions especially in such divided times. No matter who wins or how the country is doing in 2028 you'll get the same percentages you do today.I recall the despondent FOX team in 2004, in particular Bill Kristol. Exit polls clearly gave it to Kerry and they assumed it was all but over.
Throughout election night, the national exit poll showed the Massachusetts senator leading President Bush by 51 percent to 48 percent. But when all the votes were counted, it was Bush who won by slightly less than three percentage points. Larger discrepancies between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote were found in exit polls conducted in several states. At the request of the media sponsors, Mitofsky and Lenski are continuing to examine exit polling in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two critical battleground states where the poll results were off.
Lesson here is that exit polls aren't any more accurate than early voting. Keep your powder dry, it aint over till the fat lady sings.