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polling stuff

In the interests of balance:

Bottom has started to fall out": Trump campaign aides fret as Election Day "confidence has shifted"​

 
I don't know if this has been posted yet. Harris 276

 
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There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or they had voted for Trump.”

“However, when it came to sharing their views on camera, they didn't want to.”
 
And 538 has Harris back up:

 


One question found that most Americans were "dissatisfied" or "angry" with the path of the country.

"In conventional terms, it would be a miracle that Kamala Harris could win with that kind of headwind."
 


One question found that most Americans were "dissatisfied" or "angry" with the path of the country.

"In conventional terms, it would be a miracle that Kamala Harris could win with that kind of headwind."

Direction of Country type questions are stupid because it never changes and you need follow up questions. If you did they'd be different in the same way on how Dems and Reps see are the most important issues. Go back and look at polling In Oct 2020 and 2016. Answers are the result of a divided nation.

By the way, look at polling on the question in 2022. It was worse than now and didn't factor much in the midterms. Misleading question with misleading connotations.
 
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4 republicans and 2 non-party people voted. :ROFLMAO:
I want to see how that affects Nate Silver's model :p

Not sure if on-topic or not, but watching the bottom line on MSNBC, an exit poll shows that 52% of voters say that Trump's views are "too extreme." If (and it's a BIG if sometimes), they voted accordingly, that's trouble for him in Michigan.
 
I would caution all those showboating for their candidate based on early voting and mail-in ballots to not read much, if anything, into it. Republicans have been coached to vote early and so they are, both at the polls and in mail in ballots. However, there are studies that show these are merely votes that would have been cast on election day ... as happened to Trump in 2020.

And polling hasn't improved for Trump in the last few weeks, but it has for Harris. Here is the NS model run... Trump's tiny lead is mostly gone in Penn, Georgia has eroded for Trump since last week (losing nearly a percentage point but still one percentage point ahead). It appears he may flip Nevada but that isn't enough.
The NS computer model now says it is truely 50-50.
View attachment 67541551

Its now about turnout and the degree, if any, polls don't account for individuals who are silent on their true intentions.

Amazing. Pure 50-50. How often does that occur?
 


There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or they had voted for Trump.”

“However, when it came to sharing their views on camera, they didn't want to.”


I saw that, earlier. I think this should be a valid concern. It's why Trump has been under-polling every Presidential election he's been in.
 
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Amazing. Pure 50-50. How often does that occur?

This has to be the closest polling in history. After pollsters missed the hidden Trump vote in 2016 and 2020, we will see it this time they got it right... especially as they are all herding.
 
This has to be the closest polling in history. After pollsters missed the hidden Trump vote in 2016 and 2020, we will see it this time they got it right... especially as they are all herding.

I'm glad you correctly used the term "polling". Because, that's all it is.
 
Direction of Country type questions are stupid because it never changes and you need follow up questions. If you did they'd be different in the same way on how Dems and Reps see are the most important issues. Go back and look at polling In Oct 2020 and 2016. Answers are the result of a divided nation.

By the way, look at polling on the question in 2022. It was worse than now and didn't factor much in the midterms. Misleading question with misleading connotations.

I recall the despondent FOX team in 2004, in particular Bill Kristol. Exit polls clearly gave it to Kerry and they assumed it was all but over.


Throughout election night, the national exit poll showed the Massachusetts senator leading President Bush by 51 percent to 48 percent. But when all the votes were counted, it was Bush who won by slightly less than three percentage points. Larger discrepancies between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote were found in exit polls conducted in several states. At the request of the media sponsors, Mitofsky and Lenski are continuing to examine exit polling in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two critical battleground states where the poll results were off.

Lesson here is that exit polls aren't any more accurate than early voting. Keep your powder dry, it aint over till the fat lady sings.
 
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Wildcard state to watch is Florida if only because it hasn't been "behaving" in polls as it seems it ought to have been. Margins went from +4 to +7, never hitting double digits. If that winds up being his MOV, that could be showing warning signs for him… I mean, even Walter Mondale won Minnesota.
 
I recall the despondent FOX team in 2004, in particular Bill Kristol. Exit polls clearly gave it to Kerry and they assumed it was all but over.


Throughout election night, the national exit poll showed the Massachusetts senator leading President Bush by 51 percent to 48 percent. But when all the votes were counted, it was Bush who won by slightly less than three percentage points. Larger discrepancies between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote were found in exit polls conducted in several states. At the request of the media sponsors, Mitofsky and Lenski are continuing to examine exit polling in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two critical battleground states where the poll results were off.

Lesson here is that exit polls aren't any more accurate than early voting. Keep your powder dry, it aint over till the fat lady sings.
Exit Polling is fine, just don't like Direction of the Country questions especially in such divided times. No matter who wins or how the country is doing in 2028 you'll get the same percentages you do today.
 
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