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polling stuff

NOLA Dude said:
Click to expand...

But doesn't this assume that the ballots coming from Republican counties actually cast their vote for Trump? One of my theories is that a lot of (presumably moderate) Republicans will simply not vote for Trump (and not for President at all), but vote down ballot for the rest of the candidates. Another theory I have is that (again, presumably moderate) Republicans will vote for Trump, but vote Democratic for the House/Senate as they did in 2016. We'll see tomorrow, and we'll also see if it's enough to change the outcome. PA, maybe, but I mean this is not going to effect the result in like Idaho.
 
Last night, on BBC they showed the two places on split screen, where Harris and Trump were going to have their rallies.


5 hours before Trump's rally in Michigan (the correspondent pointed that out) - there were already large crowds waiting outside.........

.........................while the Harris venue (which was supposed to be with many celebrities), the place still looked empty!
 

Trouble for the Democrats as early votes show Republicans ‘outperforming’​



Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer has analysed early voting numbers in the United States.
“When you look, you can see, over and over again, it’s the Republican side, led by Donald Trump, that’s actually exceeding where it’s always been on the early vote, and it’s Democrats underperforming,”
he told Sky News host Andrew Bolt.

“Every state ... that are consequential in terms of the battleground states, Republicans are outperforming where they have an early vote and Democrats are underperforming.”





 
NOLA Dude said:
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Gonna be interesting to see how his model reacts with wins as they come in.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Especially seeing that his model never aligned with the polls that came in on any given day.
 
I would caution all those showboating for their candidate based on early voting and mail-in ballots to not read much, if anything, into it. Republicans have been coached to vote early and so they are, both at the polls and in mail in ballots. However, there are studies that show these are merely votes that would have been cast on election day ... as happened to Trump in 2020.

And polling hasn't improved for Trump in the last few weeks, but it has for Harris. Here is the NS model run... Trump's tiny lead is mostly gone in Penn, Georgia has eroded for Trump since last week (losing nearly a percentage point but still one percentage point ahead). It appears he may flip Nevada but that isn't enough.

The NS computer model now says it is truely 50-50.

1730826022293.png

Its now about turnout and the degree, if any, polls don't account for individuals who are silent on their true intentions.
 
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