PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST September 2015
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – Fellow Republicans Salmon and Schweikert are neck and neck with McCain for the Republican Senatorial nomination. Assuming McCain wins the nomination for his seat, he will win in November. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – On the Republican side it is either Mike Coffman or Cynthia Coffman who will be challenging Democratic incumbent Bennet. Whichever one wins the Republican nod, they will be facing a well-financed Bennet. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. In the latest PPP poll Republicans DeSantis and Jolly leads Democrat Grayson by 1 and 3 points. But Grayson beats Republican Lopez-Cantera by 7. The other Democratic potential senate nominee Murphy leads all three potential Republican senate nominees by 5 and 6 points. Taking the latest PPP poll and the favorability ratings of all the candidates, I am calling Florida as a democratic gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Duckworth leads Kirk by 6 points in the latest PPP poll. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan has narrowed Ayotte lead from 8 points down to three over the last month. Ayotte leads in both the NBC and PPP polls conducted this month. The trend seems to be with Hassan as over the last two months she has narrowed Ayotte’s lead from 12 to 8 to 3. New Hampshire is more blue than red today, I am going to call this race for Hassan as I expect her positive trend to continue. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Strickland and Sittenfeld are battling it out for the Democratic senate nomination to take on Portman. Last month Portman trailed Strickland by 3, but lead Sittenfeld by 21. There hasn’t been any new information out of Ohio. So I am going to continue to keep Ohio in the Republican column. Republican Hold 51 R 49 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Like Ohio, there has been no new information on this race In an August 23 poll Toomey was up by 14 over Democrat Setak and by 16 over McGinty. Until new information spills forth, I am keeping Pennsylvania in as a Republican hold. 51 R 49 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold has a solid lead over Johnson approaching double digits. Feingold will return to the senate. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D
The only change from last month is New Hampshire which I switched from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. That change will give us a tie in the senate at 50-50. Whoever is the Vice President will cast the tie breaking vote and determine which party will control the senate. This is a net gain the Democrats of 4 seats.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 26 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 402 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 16 of their 26 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 3 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 13 seats and the new House will have 234 Republicans to 201 Democrats. The net gain of 13 seats for the Democrats is one more than last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, for the first time since I started this in April, the Republican Field wins the popular vote 49.7 to 49.1. Hillary dropped 1.8 points since last month and the GOP field rose that identical 1.8. In the Electoral College, Hillary still wins the election by a 297-241 margin. Virginia switched from Republican to Democrat this month while Iowa went from Democrat to Republican.
Presidential Electoral Vote Change History of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field predictions.
April 15 Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May 15 Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June 15 Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July 15 Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August 15 Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September 15 Electoral vote R 241 D 297
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Competitive senate races:
Arizona McCain R – Fellow Republicans Salmon and Schweikert are neck and neck with McCain for the Republican Senatorial nomination. Assuming McCain wins the nomination for his seat, he will win in November. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D
Colorado Bennet D – On the Republican side it is either Mike Coffman or Cynthia Coffman who will be challenging Democratic incumbent Bennet. Whichever one wins the Republican nod, they will be facing a well-financed Bennet. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. In the latest PPP poll Republicans DeSantis and Jolly leads Democrat Grayson by 1 and 3 points. But Grayson beats Republican Lopez-Cantera by 7. The other Democratic potential senate nominee Murphy leads all three potential Republican senate nominees by 5 and 6 points. Taking the latest PPP poll and the favorability ratings of all the candidates, I am calling Florida as a democratic gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Duckworth leads Kirk by 6 points in the latest PPP poll. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan has narrowed Ayotte lead from 8 points down to three over the last month. Ayotte leads in both the NBC and PPP polls conducted this month. The trend seems to be with Hassan as over the last two months she has narrowed Ayotte’s lead from 12 to 8 to 3. New Hampshire is more blue than red today, I am going to call this race for Hassan as I expect her positive trend to continue. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers. Republican hold 52 R 48 D
Ohio Portman R – Strickland and Sittenfeld are battling it out for the Democratic senate nomination to take on Portman. Last month Portman trailed Strickland by 3, but lead Sittenfeld by 21. There hasn’t been any new information out of Ohio. So I am going to continue to keep Ohio in the Republican column. Republican Hold 51 R 49 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Like Ohio, there has been no new information on this race In an August 23 poll Toomey was up by 14 over Democrat Setak and by 16 over McGinty. Until new information spills forth, I am keeping Pennsylvania in as a Republican hold. 51 R 49 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold has a solid lead over Johnson approaching double digits. Feingold will return to the senate. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D
The only change from last month is New Hampshire which I switched from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. That change will give us a tie in the senate at 50-50. Whoever is the Vice President will cast the tie breaking vote and determine which party will control the senate. This is a net gain the Democrats of 4 seats.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 26 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 402 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 16 of their 26 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 3 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 13 seats and the new House will have 234 Republicans to 201 Democrats. The net gain of 13 seats for the Democrats is one more than last month.
Presidential Election
In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, for the first time since I started this in April, the Republican Field wins the popular vote 49.7 to 49.1. Hillary dropped 1.8 points since last month and the GOP field rose that identical 1.8. In the Electoral College, Hillary still wins the election by a 297-241 margin. Virginia switched from Republican to Democrat this month while Iowa went from Democrat to Republican.
Presidential Electoral Vote Change History of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field predictions.
April 15 Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May 15 Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June 15 Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July 15 Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August 15 Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September 15 Electoral vote R 241 D 297