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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST September 2015

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST September 2015

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Competitive senate races:

Arizona McCain R – Fellow Republicans Salmon and Schweikert are neck and neck with McCain for the Republican Senatorial nomination. Assuming McCain wins the nomination for his seat, he will win in November. Republican Hold 54 R 46 D

Colorado Bennet D – On the Republican side it is either Mike Coffman or Cynthia Coffman who will be challenging Democratic incumbent Bennet. Whichever one wins the Republican nod, they will be facing a well-financed Bennet. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – Rubio is running for president leaving his senate seat vacant. In the latest PPP poll Republicans DeSantis and Jolly leads Democrat Grayson by 1 and 3 points. But Grayson beats Republican Lopez-Cantera by 7. The other Democratic potential senate nominee Murphy leads all three potential Republican senate nominees by 5 and 6 points. Taking the latest PPP poll and the favorability ratings of all the candidates, I am calling Florida as a democratic gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – It is looking as Republican Kirk will face Democrat Duckworth next year. Duckworth is an Iraq vet and has plenty of money. Duckworth leads Kirk by 6 points in the latest PPP poll. Bye, bye Kirk. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – Reid is retiring leaving the seat vacant. Nevada and Colorado are the only Democratic held seat in this election cycle the Republicans have a chance to pick up. Who is running against whom still needs to be sorted out? So for the time being I am leaving Nevada as a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan has narrowed Ayotte lead from 8 points down to three over the last month. Ayotte leads in both the NBC and PPP polls conducted this month. The trend seems to be with Hassan as over the last two months she has narrowed Ayotte’s lead from 12 to 8 to 3. New Hampshire is more blue than red today, I am going to call this race for Hassan as I expect her positive trend to continue. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D

North Carolina Burr R – Burr has a 10 to 14 point lead over all potential Democratic challengers. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Ohio Portman R – Strickland and Sittenfeld are battling it out for the Democratic senate nomination to take on Portman. Last month Portman trailed Strickland by 3, but lead Sittenfeld by 21. There hasn’t been any new information out of Ohio. So I am going to continue to keep Ohio in the Republican column. Republican Hold 51 R 49 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Like Ohio, there has been no new information on this race In an August 23 poll Toomey was up by 14 over Democrat Setak and by 16 over McGinty. Until new information spills forth, I am keeping Pennsylvania in as a Republican hold. 51 R 49 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold is challenging Johnson. Feingold has a solid lead over Johnson approaching double digits. Feingold will return to the senate. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D

The only change from last month is New Hampshire which I switched from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. That change will give us a tie in the senate at 50-50. Whoever is the Vice President will cast the tie breaking vote and determine which party will control the senate. This is a net gain the Democrats of 4 seats.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 26 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 402 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 16 of their 26 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 3 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 13 seats and the new House will have 234 Republicans to 201 Democrats. The net gain of 13 seats for the Democrats is one more than last month.

Presidential Election

In a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican field utilizing party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and the early polls, for the first time since I started this in April, the Republican Field wins the popular vote 49.7 to 49.1. Hillary dropped 1.8 points since last month and the GOP field rose that identical 1.8. In the Electoral College, Hillary still wins the election by a 297-241 margin. Virginia switched from Republican to Democrat this month while Iowa went from Democrat to Republican.

Presidential Electoral Vote Change History of Hillary Clinton vs. the Republican Field predictions.

April 15 Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May 15 Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June 15 Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July 15 Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August 15 Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September 15 Electoral vote R 241 D 297
 
Thanks again for all your hard work to give us these projections, Pero. The fact that "outsiders" like Trump and Sanders can draw such huge crowds with their messages must mean that voters from both parties are not happy with the status quo in DC. It remains to be seen how long this phenomenom continues.
 
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Thanks once again for all your hard work in giving us these projections, Pero! :thumbs: The fact that "outsiders" like Trump and Sanders are leading in the polls shows their messages are resonating with the voters, and that people are tired of the status quo in DC. It remains to be seen if this phenomenon continues, but I do recall that Perot got millions of votes some years ago. Are the politicians listening?
 
polgara;bt3307 said:
Thanks again for all your hard work to give us these projections, Pero. The fact that "outsiders" like Trump and Sanders can draw such huge crowds with their messages must mean that voters from both parties are not happy with the status quo in DC. It remains to be seen how long this phenomenom continues.

Howdy Pol, from studying the polls it may not be all that you are hearing. On the Republican for sure, it is a war against the Republican establishment class. A sizeable faction thinks the Republicans in congress and the establishment which supports them haven’t done enough to fight Obama’s agenda. So yes, it so far has been the year of the outsider in the Republican Party. With independents, no. Trump has a 60% disapproval rating among them give or take a couple of percentage points. Hillary isn’t far behind averaging around a 55% disapproval rating with independents. Now I consider Joe Biden an establishment type, he has a 50% favorable rating among independents and 30% unfavorable. Biden in the last three polls is beating all Republican candidates whereas Clinton is only beating Trump. Clinton wins the independent vote against Trump, but loses the independents to all other candidates to include Jeb Bush. Bush is another establishment candidate, so is Rubio. I could go further into detail, but what all these polls have in common is the anti-establishment vote is within the Republican Party, Trump, Carson and Fiorina are the top three with Rubio in the number four spot.

Now why is Sander considered an outsider? He has been in congress both as a Representative and Senator for almost forever. He claims to be a Socialist, a third party member but he caucuses with the democrats and studying his voting record, he is number 3 in the senate among all Democrats voting the Democratic line. Only two other Democratic senators has a higher percentage of voting the Democratic line. His crowds or those who support him are white liberals and almost no one else. Those to the far extreme left, possibly as far left as one can go. If one uses reality instead of media hype, Sanders is part of the establishment.

The bottom line is that all the anti-establishment vote is within the Republican Party, not with independents or Democrats. I just love it when posters state all Americans are anti-establishment or pro-Trump. You are talking about 25% of only Republicans for Trump and around half of the Republican Party as being anti-establishment if you add Trump, Carson and Fiorina together. But that anti-establishment attitude is against the Republican establishment or at congress because most Republicans do not think they have done enough to fight the Obama agenda.
 
I discount the importance of disapproval ratings. The reason is because it's not the people who won't vote for a particular candidate that count, it's the people who will and do vote for that candidate.

As long as there are multiple candidates at the time of the nomination conventions, then no candidate has to get a majority vote to win, it's conceivable that a candidate who only gets 25 or 30% of the delegates can win the nomination - unless I just don't understand how the conventions work (if I'm not understanding this correctly, someone please edumakate me - I'm the first one to admit that I no little about the nomination process). Even in the general election it's not that rare that the winner has less than a majority vote, especially if there is a large field of third party candidates who actually get on the ballets, or a strong individual third party.

Also, I can easily see this years primaries as having the most voters ever to switch parties to vote for the easiest candidate to beat. The reason for this is because I expect this to be a very nasty and heated election process, mostly because of the intensity level of division among our population, we have always been an about equally divided nation politically, that's why we have two parties that take turns getting elected, but I cant recall in my lifetime the amount of hate and animosity between that division. So if this happens, this could significantly effect the nomination process. Of course I may be totally wrong, I usually am.

I can also see a lot of moderate democrats and swing voters, switching over to the republican party just to vote for Trump (during the primaries and/or the general election if he gets the nomination) based upon his anti-immigration platform.

Even if Trump only gets 25% of dedicated republicans to vote for him, his actual election day polls (real life votes) could possibly be much much higher than 25%, he could possibly hit 40% in many of the primaries. A few weeks ago I was talking to an ex-president of the local NAACP chapter, and she was excited about Trump, and she was indicating that she may vote in the republican primary (in our state we can vote for either, without being registered for any party). I was shocked as this lady has been a huge Hillary supporter for many years. I asked her why, and she told me "Trump is the best democrat that republicans could ever vote for". She recognized that Trump is quite liberal on everything except for his immigration policy. She also said that if Trump is the republican nominee, and if Hillary isn't the democrat nominee, that she would vote for Trump in the primary - which is quite shocking because this is a black liberal female very active in politics.

So there are a heck of a lot of plot twists that could come in this election. It's a major real life drama playing out before our eyes. I also suspect that regardless of what happens, regardless of who wins, it's going to be a good thing for our nation. The record number of people tuning into the debates indicates to me that a record number of people have become interested in politics, and a record percent of our population may turn out to vote. Maybe we are on the verge of a nation waking up for a deep sleep of apathy. Or not.
 
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imagep;bt3332 said:
I discount the importance of disapproval ratings. The reason is because it's not the people who won't vote for a particular candidate that count, it's the people who will and do vote for that candidate.

As long as there are multiple candidates at the time of the nomination conventions, then no candidate has to get a majority vote to win, it's conceivable that a candidate who only gets 25 or 30% of the delegates can win the nomination - unless I just don't understand how the conventions work (if I'm not understanding this correctly, someone please edumakate me - I'm the first one to admit that I no little about the nomination process). Even in the general election it's not that rare that the winner has less than a majority vote, especially if there is a large field of third party candidates who actually get on the ballets, or a strong individual third party.

Also, I can easily see this years primaries as having the most voters ever to switch parties to vote for the easiest candidate to beat. The reason for this is because I expect this to be a very nasty and heated election process, mostly because of the intensity level of division among our population, we have always been an about equally divided nation politically, that's why we have two parties that take turns getting elected, but I cant recall in my lifetime the amount of hate and animosity between that division. So if this happens, this could significantly effect the nomination process. Of course I may be totally wrong, I usually am.

I can also see a lot of moderate democrats and swing voters, switching over to the republican party just to vote for Trump (during the primaries and/or the general election if he gets the nomination) based upon his anti-immigration platform.

Even if Trump only gets 25% of dedicated republicans to vote for him, his actual election day polls (real life votes) could possibly be much much higher than 25%, he could possibly hit 40% in many of the primaries. A few weeks ago I was talking to an ex-president of the local NAACP chapter, and she was excited about Trump, and she was indicating that she may vote in the republican primary (in our state we can vote for either, without being registered for any party). I was shocked as this lady has been a huge Hillary supporter for many years. I asked her why, and she told me "Trump is the best democrat that republicans could ever vote for". She recognized that Trump is quite liberal on everything except for his immigration policy. She also said that if Trump is the republican nominee, and if Hillary isn't the democrat nominee, that she would vote for Trump in the primary - which is quite shocking because this is a black liberal female very active in politics.

So there are a heck of a lot of plot twists that could come in this election. It's a major real life drama playing out before our eyes. I also suspect that regardless of what happens, regardless of who wins, it's going to be a good thing for our nation. The record number of people tuning into the debates indicates to me that a record number of people have become interested in politics, and a record percent of our population may turn out to vote. Maybe we are on the verge of a nation waking up for a deep sleep of apathy. Or not.



The favorable/unfavorable or approve/disapprove ratings are important. The thing is when it comes to voting in the booth, most voters will choose the candidate they dislike the least among the two major party candidates. You saw it in Missouri senate race in 2012. Akin had a 71% disapproval rating, McKaskil a 64% disapproval rating, McKaskil won. I see that as a major failure of the two party system. If it is Trump vs. Clinton next year, you will have about a third of the electorate voting the candidate they hate the least. The problem in Missouri was there was no third party candidate on the ballot. There will be in most states in the presidential election. But most independent/swing voters who would vote third party or like one of the third party candidates more than the two major party one will vote for the major party candidate they dislike the least. They buy into the propaganda from the two major parties that a vote for a third party candidate is a wasted vote, the third party candidate can’t win. Hence it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.

As for the nomination process, the nominee has to get 50% plus one delegate. But a candidate can get delegates with 20, 25% of the vote as in most primaries the delegates are awarded proportionally. The strongest third party since the end of WWII was my Reform Party in which Perot received 19% and 9% nationally. But the Republicans and Democrats write the election laws and they do so as a mutual protection act. If there is one thing those two major parties have in common, it is to prevent a viable third party. Then there is the financial resources, in 2012 Romney spent over a billion dollars, Obama spent over a billion dollars, next in line was Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson who spent 3 million. When you are outspent 2 billion plus to 3 million you do not get your message out and people do not know who you are or what you stand for. Our election system is a monopoly.

Most primaries are closed primaries and one must be registered as either a Republican or a Democrat to vote in them. My home state of Georgia is different as it has open primaries. We just register to vote. We can choose which primary to vote in. But Georgia and a few other states are the exception. A Republican can’t vote in a Democratic Primary and vice versa in most states.


I’ll keep an eye on the switching, but so far, no I haven’t seen that. Most Democrats are dead set against him and most independents do not like him. But as I stated, disliking someone does not prevent them for voting for him. Especially is the dislike the other candidate more.

Yeah, on quite a lot of issues, Trump is liberal. Trump has been a Democrat, then a member of my party, the Reform Party, then an independent and then a Democrat again and finally in 2009 he became a Republican. Now most politicians tell the voters what they want to hear, I would put Trump into this category. What he says now he may if elected, forget all about it. Most politicians do exactly that.

I do think the huge interest in the debates is because of Trump. A TV personality to most people who just happens to be running for president. This is working very much in Trump’s favor at this very early going. Will it continue, I do not know. It usually doesn’t. Candidates leading in the polls a year before an election have faded into obscurity. But Trump doesn’t fit into the historical mode.

Here is the breakdown from Quinnipiac dated 8 October 2015 between Clinton and Trump
Nationally Clinton 47 Trump 40
Among Republicans Trump 85 Clinton 7
Among Democrats Clinton 88 Trump 5
Independents Clinton 43 Trump 40
Men trump 49 Clinton 39
Women Clinton 54 Trump 33
White Trump 46 Clinton 42
Non-white Clinton 69 Trump 18

Quinnipiac didn’t break non-white down into black, hispanic, asian etc. But it still gives you an idea. These numbers will change as time goes by. But they do give you an idea of where they stand.
 
Hi Pero, hope you and yours are well. *hug* I'm sure looking forward to your October post with all that's been the news lately! Thanks again for all the hard work you do on this - it's much appreciated. :thumbs:
 
polgara;bt3336 said:
Hi Pero, hope you and yours are well. *hug* I'm sure looking forward to your October post with all that's been the news lately! Thanks again for all the hard work you do on this - it's much appreciated. :thumbs:

You're most welcome pol. I have been studying the polls, those for only October and it seems when it comes to Trump, he comes off the worst among the major or leading candidates against Clinton. Whereas Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Bush all beat Clinton in a head to head, Trump always loses.

This can be attributed to the independent/swing vote. They do not like Clinton, but like trump even less. Perhaps I will have more on this later in another blog. Trump loses independents, the others win the independent vs. Clinton.
 
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