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Oh yeah! Texas!!

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Slavister

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I my "Texas - going blue?" thread from 3 days ago I noted that Texas is far ahead of others in relative volume of early votes. In fact, yesterday it already passed TOTAL early vote of 2016 with more busy early voting ahead.

I showed that the polls still had Texas squarely in red territory (-5, -4, -5, -7 points in Trump direction) but they were all polls from a couple weeks earlier.

So with such heavy early voting volume, I wondered...

Slavister said:
I wonder if newly coming TX polls will start showing significant change toward Biden...
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I finally got my answer today.

Quinnipiac University: a tie!!
Data for Progress: Biden +1!!
 
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Texas had a total of 8.5 million voters in 2016, which is only 52 percent voters of age. Current early voting has total amount approaching 5 million voters. Cant believe I'm saying this but Texas maybe a close race this year...
 
Finch said:
Texas had a total of 8.5 million voters in 2016, which is only 52 percent voters of age. Current early voting has total amount approaching 5 million voters. Cant believe I'm saying this but Texas maybe a close race this year...
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If Texas gets halfway close to Blue this time, we're looking at the new Florida!
 
The big Texas cities are already blue. I don't know whether the rest of Texas is becoming purple; I guess we'll all see.
 
Slavister said:
I my "Texas - going blue?" thread from 3 days ago I noted that Texas is far ahead of others in relative volume of early votes. In fact, yesterday it already passed TOTAL early vote of 2016 with more busy early voting ahead.

I showed that the polls still had Texas squarely in red territory (-5, -4, -5, -7 points in Trump direction) but they were all polls from a couple weeks earlier.

So with such heavy early voting volume, I wondered...



I finally got my answer today.

Quinnipiac University: a tie!!
Data for Progress: Biden +1!!
Click to expand...
Well, if Texas goes Biden, Trump will get his wish -- we will know who won on election night.
 
MTAtech said:
Well, if Texas goes Biden, Trump will get his wish -- we will know who won on election night.
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Not sure what you mean--why wouldn't we know on election night if he doesn't?
 
nota bene said:
Not sure what you mean--why wouldn't we know on election night if he doesn't?
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Trump has been complaining that because of absentee ballots not counted as of election night, we won't know right away who won. He wanted the SCOTUS to rule that ballots couldn't be counted after election day.
 
Finch said:
Texas had a total of 8.5 million voters in 2016, which is only 52 percent voters of age. Current early voting has total amount approaching 5 million voters. Cant believe I'm saying this but Texas maybe a close race this year...
Click to expand...

At the rate we are going in TX, by Nov 2, number of early votes may in fact exceed total 2016 vote!
 
nota bene said:
Not sure what you mean--why wouldn't we know on election night if he doesn't?
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To add to MTAtech's post: A decisive win by locking in a majority of states early on will help defuse the idea of fraud.
 
ElChupacabra said:
To add to MTAtech's post: A decisive win by locking in a majority of states early on will help defuse the idea of fraud.
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I hope there won't be any substantial issue of fraud. I hope that you're correct and that we'll know on election night who won. I expect, irrespective of who wins and because of what contentious, poor-sport crybabies we seem to have become, that whichever side loses will demand a recount, sigh.
 
nota bene said:
The big Texas cities are already blue. I don't know whether the rest of Texas is becoming purple; I guess we'll all see.
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Those cities and all of their suburbs need to be navy. I don't; think any of them will even be royal blue.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Because election night is when people START, not finish, counting ballots. DUH.
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Perhaps you can explain then this statement: " Well, if Texas goes Biden, Trump will get his wish -- we will know who won on election night."
 
CaughtInThe said:
Yeah, but the Cowboys still suck!!
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They suck so bad their last game was worse than the score. One win was a fluke by the other team. The quarterback downgrade is bigger than I expected.

On topic, I want to see Cowboys and Texans blue all over the Texas map for a totally different reason.
 
nota bene said:
Perhaps you can explain then this statement: " Well, if Texas goes Biden, Trump will get his wish - we will know who won on election night."
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It always amazes me that people think tens of millions of ballots can be counted in only four hours.
 
Blue Donkey said:
It always amazes me that people think tens of millions of ballots can be counted in only four hours.
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I've never said that I think this. And what does it have to do with IF Biden wins Texas, we'll all know who won on election night?
 
nota bene said:
I've never said that I think this. And what does it have to do with IF Biden wins Texas, we'll all know who won on election night?
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There is no other reason people would think it is remotely possible to know who won Texas son election night. Obviously no Electoral College map shows Texas as a navy state; they are either tossup, pink, or light blue. So there is no way to know who won without all of the ballots being counted, which is mathematically impossible in just four hours.
 
nota bene said:
Perhaps you can explain then this statement: " Well, if Texas goes Biden, Trump will get his wish -- we will know who won on election night."
Click to expand...

I believe the point being made is that if Texas and its 38 electoral votes go blue, Trump doesn’t have a realistic chance of amassing 270 electoral votes elsewhere. A shift toward Biden enough to flip Texas, also likely means many if not all of the other swing states will be blue as well...even if the final official vote totals in those states isn’t known on the evening of the 3rd.
 
It's probably not a great idea to get too excited about early voter turnout because Republicans are just going to make up a lot of the difference on election day. I can certainly understand the temptation though because of the conventional wisdom that high voter turnout is usually good for Democrats.
 
Juggernaut74 said:
I believe the point being made is that if Texas and its 38 electoral votes go blue, Trump doesn’t have a realistic chance of amassing 270 electoral votes elsewhere. A shift toward Biden enough to flip Texas, also likely means many if not all of the other swing states will be blue as well...even if the final official vote totals in those states isn’t known on the evening of the 3rd.
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Donald Trump has no chance without Texas and Florida.
 
nota bene said:
Perhaps you can explain then this statement: " Well, if Texas goes Biden, Trump will get his wish -- we will know who won on election night."
Click to expand...
I'll answer the question because it was my statement.
After the Supreme Court upheld Pennsylvania's Supreme Court decision to allow ballots to be counted after election day, over the Trump campaign's challenge, Trump said {I can't find the exact quote} "that's ridiculous. We won't know who won on election night."
My point is that if Texas goes for Biden, that's 38 electoral votes that will likely put Biden way over the top quickly.

Just for the record, there is no requirement to have results on election night. For most of the country's history, it took weeks or months to decide this. In 2000, it took over a month.
 
MTAtech said:
Well, if Texas goes Biden, Trump will get his wish -- we will know who won on election night.
Click to expand...
I already have taken Nov 4th off from work. Planning an all nighter results watch.
 
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