Re: Obama says voters may blame him for economy
fyi, present prognostications put pelosi's place in play particularly in florida, illinois, new york, ohio and pennsylvania
in the sunshine state, 4 dem incumbents are plum pickings---allen boyd in FL2, alan grayson (who says republicans want you to die) in orlando (the 8th), two termer ron klein in 22 (who is facing a very attractive black republican who drinks tea, allen west---this is parts of broward and palm beach and is quite centrist), and especially suzanne kosmas in 24, edgewater
the land of lincoln lays out another triplet of troubled---freshwoman debbie halvorson in 11, bill foster in 14 and phil hare in 17, west central IL, far closer to iowa than chi-town
in new york which holds its primary tuesday, where therefore several gop candidates are still not defined, there are EIGHT incumbents exposed---tim bishop in 1, steve israel in 2, mike mcmahon in 13, scott murphy in 20, bill owens in 23 (the scozzafava special), michael arcuri in 24, dan maffei in 25, and disgraced eric massa's 29th which is now certain red
ohio offers another HALF DOZEN opportunities---steve driehaus in 1, charlie wilson in 6, betty sutton in 13, mary joe kilroy in 15, john boccieri in 16, and zack space (who has public service unions running against him) in river country, OH18
the quaker state sees SEVEN not safe---kathy dahlkemper in PN3, health care warrior jason altmire in 4, admiral sestak's open 7, patrick murphy in 8, chris carney in 10, ethics challenged paul kanjorski in 11, mark critz in 12 (murtha's home, johnstown, which mark critz took in the special by running against obamacare, rematched now vs tim burns)
several of the smaller states, tho fewer seats net are in play, see serious swings which will be decisive, either way
arizona, famously, importantly, cuzza all the doj action, cuzza the cartels---ann kirkpatrick in 1, harry mitchell in 5, gabby giffords in 8
tennessee, bigtime---bart gordon and john tanner both QUIT, practically conceding TN6 and TN 8, as well as lincoln davis in 4, coal country
virginia was the most crucial commonwealth in the 08 election, she may still be---glenn nye in 2, freshman tom perriello in 5, rick boucher in 9, and even gerald connolly in fairfax county---poster boys for progressive problematicals
washington state---rick larson in WA2 and dennie heck, trying to hold onto Brian Baird's abandoned bench, one of the most watched contests in the tourney, WA3
indiana dems have the wrong dna for their districts---joe donnelly in 2 (who is running ads against "pelosi's energy tax," trashing the "washington crowd," while flashing images of pelosi, reid and obama), trent van haaften (brad ellsworth's 8th district, who is currently chasing a no-chance senate race vs dan coats), baron hill in 9, the southeast quadrant abutting the ohio river
arkansas---chad causey and joyce eliot in marion barber's 1 and vic snyder's 2 (another pair who peeled) are good as gone, and mike ross (obamacare's enabler in chief) is suddenly appearing on radar screens in 4
colorado---phil's brother john salazar in 3, betsy markey in 4 and dave pearlmutter in 7 who is up against nat'l tea party favorite ron frazier, an african american self funder
both new hampshire seats---carol shea porter in 1 and paul hodes' 2nd who's facing double digit deficts in his senate sally vs kelly ayotte
both dakota-at-large's---after 9 tantalizing tries republicans are finally set to take earl pomeroy's spot (in the person of rick berg) in blood red bismarck, while in the rushmore state kristi noem is running strong vs stephone herseth-sandlin
kansas also will revert to form when mrs moore turns over her husband's KS3
new mexico---freshman martin heinrich in 1 and harry teague in the oil outback, NM2
alabama---bobby bright in 2 (who recently suggested it might be nice if nancy croacked) and parker griffith's party switching 5th
georgia---sanford bishop (busted this week for granting scholarships to relatives, newest congressional craze) in GA2, jim marshall in 8
freshman frank kratovil on maryland's east shore
gary mcdowell in MI1, freshman mark schauer in MI7, freshman gary peters in 9, suburban pink oakland county
armed services chair ike skelton in missouri 4
resources chair nick rahall in WV3, mike oliviero (who beat 22 year vet alan mollohan in the dem primary) in the coal rich panhandle around wheeling
a trio of tarheels---bob etheridge in NC2, freshman larry kissell in NC8, and ex redskin qb heath shuler in the 11th
special election newcomer travis childers in mississippi 1
dina titus in NV3
freshman kurt schrader in OR5
budget chair john spratt in SC5
texas 17, chet edwards, and TX23, ciro rodriguez (scholarship ceder eddie bernice johnson from dallas is not yet on anyone's list)
obstinate david obey's WI7 is lean republican, and green bay's WI8 represented by second termer steve kagen is notoriously swingy
there are quite a few more contested, of course, across the landscape, (including a company out here in my CA), but here i'm looking at trends
my data was compiled from many sources, it started with politico's list of the 111 closest races
rcp is a daily check, it goes without saying
politico got its stuff largely from cook, rothenberg and sabato, or so say the journo listers
i got a slew of poll data yesterday from a source new to me, i frankly don't recall the url, but the surveyer's were the same aaf's, waa's, talk biz, pos, s-usa...
on each of the above battles i have quite a bit of background, as well as many more in play, but we are facing data overload, here
stay tuned
RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House
How the House would be won - Richard E. Cohen and Charles Mahtesian - POLITICO.com
debuting as blips just this week after ppp's polls are both maine's mandates---chellie pingree in southern ME1 and mike michaud in rural, troubled 2, the largest geographical district east of the mississippi (conservative paul lepage is running away with the governorship)
since the pine state pair aren't even proposed by politico, they can only be perceived as potential pickups #112 and #113, on the inside