New Poll Numbers - Trump all time low

[trouble13]

Interesting...but

According to this conglomeration of all polls:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Trump's approval rating has never been higher than 45.5% (which was 4 days after his election) and has been as low as 36.5% (December 2017). Currently he hovers around 42%.

That's 4 points lower than Obama and 2 points lower than Clinton at the same point in their Presidencies.

It could signal a change in Congress, but maybe not since we are talking 2 things; Red States where his popularity still remains pretty level, and Blue States where there is a divide between Democratic Socialist "rising stars" and old school Democrat candidates.

I see the Democratic Socialists akin to the Republican Tea Party kind of divide, both too radical to get much cooperation with the conservative members of their Party when they obtain office.

You raise a point I rarely hear anyone discuss. The Democrats are having a very meaningful internal war among themselves.

The base is fractured similar to when they party showed up in 08. These primaries are going to say a lot about the mood on the left.

People will hold their noses and vote party line during the general. Primary is a very different animal.

Republicans need to keep their house in order because a new breed of Democrats are ramping up to make a push at public opinion

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk

 

[dobieg]

This is a trifecta showing why you should never post about topics you do not understand as if you do. Let's look at the flaws in what apdst says:

1: Polls do not say who will win, nor whether they can win. They show what the respondents say. The polls said that nationally, Clinton was a little more popular choice than Trump. This turned out to be exactly mirror reality, as Clinton got the larger portion of the national vote. Now, people used the polling data gave probabilities using that data and other data.

2: Most reputable pundits did not give Clinton a 90 % chance of winning. 538, as kinda the gold standard, gave Clinton about a 70 % chance of winning. Facts are gud.

3: It worked out exactly as he intended, as he quite clearly showed how you misrepresented reality. That you do not understand that is not his problem.

4: Did you know that underdogs win all the time? It is true(except in Cleveland I am told). The New York Giants won almost 19 % of the time last season, despite sucking. The Baltimore Orioles have won 40 times this year. The Buffalo Sabres won 25 times last season.

5: Because I am a nice person, let me help you out: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html

Fascinating.


So on election night when you were so confident that Hillary was going to win you were running around telling everyone how you were going to rub it in, it was because of your 'gut feeling' and not all the polls?



And when all the analysts on election night from CNN to ABC were saying how wrong all the polls and pollsters were, they didn't understand the facts correctly?

 

[dobieg]

Apdst's understanding of math appears to be rooted in a kind of truth that has a child-like appeal: if it happened, there was always a 100% chance of it happening. If it didn't happen, there was always a 0% chance of it happening. I get the feeling he thinks that the field of statistics is an artificial construct created for the sole purpose of tricking him. His arguments remind me of high school teacher Richard Wagner, who argued that there was a 50% chance that the Tetra Hadron Collider was going to destroy the earth by opening a black hole. His reasoning? If you've been loyally following apdst's posts in this thread then you already have a good idea of where is going:

Wagner: "Well, if you have something that can happen and something that won't necessarily happen, it's gonna either happen or it's gonna not happen, and so uh, the best guess is one in two."

John Oliver: "I'm not sure that's how probability works."

Large Hadron Collider - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Video Clip) | Comedy Central

Since you're interested in math, if you poll 30% more Democrats in a poll like this one will it skew the results in your favor?

 

[dobieg]

You say "poll rejected" any time they say something you do not like, and refer to them any time they say something you do like. Amazing how that works...

Rasmussen has Trump's approval at 48% today. Do you reject that poll?

 

[Cardinal]

Fascinating.


So on election night when you were so confident that Hillary was going to win you were running around telling everyone how you were going to rub it in, it was because of your 'gut feeling' and not all the polls?



And when all the analysts on election night from CNN to ABC were saying how wrong all the polls and pollsters were, they didn't understand the facts correctly?

Not that Redress needs me to come to his defense, but he and I have been on this forum for a number of years now, and nothing you've said accurately describes him. In fact, he quite specifically avoids making predictions, even where those predictions would have been entirely reasonable to make. If the sun has risen in the East 1,658,195,000,000 times since the Earth's creation, he'll refuse to say that it'll rise in the East a 1,658,195,000,001st time.

 

[Cardinal]

Since you're interested in math, if you poll 30% more Democrats in a poll like this one will it skew the results in your favor?

You're conflating the different arguments going on in this thread. You assume that if I find apdst's arguments to be completely ignorant of math, then I must by extension buy wholly into the ABC/WaPo poll. I don't. I'd say my defense of it has been lukewarm at best. I follow the average that samples likely and registered voters, which you can find at 538.

 

[JackA]

Three new polls out late today also showing Trump's approval in the high 30's, along with another in the low 40's. First time in many weeks with multiple polls falling out of the 40's. See them here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

 

[Redress]

Fascinating.


So on election night when you were so confident that Hillary was going to win you were running around telling everyone how you were going to rub it in, it was because of your 'gut feeling' and not all the polls?

I did what? You can show where I did what you claim?

And when all the analysts on election night from CNN to ABC were saying how wrong all the polls and pollsters were, they didn't understand the facts correctly?

Depends on what they said. They could very well be wrong. Please give quotes and I will tell you whether they where right or wrong.

 

[Redress]

Rasmussen has Trump's approval at 48% today. Do you reject that poll?

I do not reject any properly done poll, and Rasmussen does their polling correctly.

 

[Redress]

Not that Redress needs me to come to his defense, but he and I have been on this forum for a number of years now, and nothing you've said accurately describes him. In fact, he quite specifically avoids making predictions, even where those predictions would have been entirely reasonable to make. If the sun has risen in the East 1,658,195,000,000 times since the Earth's creation, he'll refuse to say that it'll rise in the East a 1,658,195,000,001st time.

It will rise in the east. Simple scientific fact, not based on probability.

:2razz:

 

[Redress]

Since you're interested in math, if you poll 30% more Democrats in a poll like this one will it skew the results in your favor?

It depends. For example, if the polling group you are sampling(say Californians as an example) is 30 % more democratic at the current time, then it is in fact likely accurate. People who look at the numbers of dems and repubs to claim poll bias tend to not understand that last line, "at the current time". What that means is that if the number of democratic(or republican) respondents goes up, it is not polling bias, nor error, but shifting political identification.

 

[JackA]

I do not reject any properly done poll, and Rasmussen does their polling correctly.

This must be why it was the only national poll that on the eve of the 2012 election called it for Romney.

 

[Redress]

This must be why it was the only national poll that on the eve of the 2012 election called it for Romney.

They had it 49/48 Romney/Obama. In fact, it was 48/50. That is within the margin of error.

Edit: they did struggle a bit more in state polls.

 

[Mycroft]

Three new polls out late today also showing Trump's approval in the high 30's, along with another in the low 40's. First time in many weeks with multiple polls falling out of the 40's. See them here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

YouGov - opt-in online poll. Interesting, but not reliable...plus, they don't provide sampling data.

Rassmussen - They never provide sampling data...unless you want to pay for it.

IBD/TIPP - No sampling data.

Shrug...maybe two out of the three are accurate...maybe not. No way of making a judgment.

 

[Perotista]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tro...l-high-63-back-mueller-half/story?id=57507081

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll continues a trend shown earlier in the week by other major polls and demonstrates that support for Trump as president is low and going lower.

Support for Impeachment is now at 49% and support for the Mueller investigation - despite a solid month of anti-Mueller propaganda by Trump and company is holding solid among everyone not a Republican.



If this continues to hold through election day in early November, the predictions of a blue wave seem like they could well come true.

btw- only 18% want Trump to pardon his buddy Manafort and most want Sessions to stay on.

Outside of the normal and usual outlier Rasmussen, almost all the polling has shown these downward trends for Trump of late.

And Trump is losing among identifiable groups - even those who have supported him in the past.



It looks more and more like the old Creedence song BAD MOON RISING should be the new Trump theme song

I see the bad moon arising
I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin'
I see bad times today

Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

I hear hurricanes a blowing
I know the end is coming soon
I fear rivers overflowing
I hear the voice of rage and ruin

Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

Hope you got your things together
Hope you are quite prepared to die
Looks like we're in for nasty weather
One eye is taken for an eye

Well don't go around tonight
Well it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

I go by RCP averages. I certainly don't rely on a single poll which can be skewed or an outlier. It interesting that two polling firms within a day of each other can come up with radical different numbers. ABC 38/60 approval/disapproval. Rasmussen 48/50 approval/disapproval. Which is right? I think both are outliers.

According to RCP averages Trump has been within a point plus or minus of 42% approval, 53% disapproval since May 2018.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

That's bad enough.

 

[JackA]

They had it 49/48 Romney/Obama. In fact, it was 48/50. That is within the margin of error.

Edit: they did struggle a bit more in state polls.

Only they made the error.

 

[KevinKohler]

So your vote was anti-american as well as not in the best interests of the country.

Yeah, and casting a vote for more of the same would have been totally American, lol.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

Yeah, and casting a vote for more of the same would have been totally American, lol.

A vote for the status quo is preferable to voting in people willing to capsize all of the establishment

 

[NeverTrump]

I just saw that this is the same number that Nixon had before he was impeached.

 

[Redress]

Only they made the error.

It is not really an error. It was within the margin of error, and well within accepted standards for polling. Rasmussen is not the best polling firm out there, but they are certainly not terrible either. 538 gives them a C+ rating, about middle of the pack.

 

[JackA]

It is not really an error. It was within the margin of error, and well within accepted standards for polling. Rasmussen is not the best polling firm out there, but they are certainly not terrible either. 538 gives them a C+ rating, about middle of the pack.

All right. Only they made the wrong call. They are consistently an outlier in favor of Republicans.

From Wikipedia:

"After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.[68] FiveThirtyEight currently rates Rasmussen Reports with a C+ grade and notes a simple average error of 5.3 percent across 657 polls analyzed.[77]"

The "pro Republican bias of 3.9 points" would explain the difference consistently seen between Rasmussen and other polls on Trump's approval.

 

[haymarket]

I go by RCP averages. I certainly don't rely on a single poll which can be skewed or an outlier. It interesting that two polling firms within a day of each other can come up with radical different numbers. ABC 38/60 approval/disapproval. Rasmussen 48/50 approval/disapproval. Which is right? I think both are outliers.

According to RCP averages Trump has been within a point plus or minus of 42% approval, 53% disapproval since May 2018.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

That's bad enough.

We all know the problem with Rasmussen which makes it a permanent outlier.

 

[Perotista]

We all know the problem with Rasmussen which makes it a permanent outlier.

I think all one has to do is look at the numbers provided. If they are out of sync with everyone else that does in my mind make them an outlier. ABC and Rasmussen are out of sync. Given most polls have an margin of error of plus or minus 3 or 4 points depending on the number surveyed. All but two of the polls shown by RCP fall into that category.

Then one must look at whom they polled, A Adults, RV registered voters, LV likely voters. That too can make a huge difference in the numbers. Gallup just did adults, no questions asked about voting habits or even if they were a citizen. Adults normally would be the less accurate when it comes to voting. Then registered voters and finally likely voters as the most accurate means of measuring election outcomes.

That said, approval/disapproval numbers aren't about voting. They are how the nations feels or views the president in the case. So all Adults as done by Gallup is probably the most accurate one. Whether you vote or not has nothing to do with approval/disapproval of the president. But if one is looking for how a president's approval numbers may effect an election, then Likely Voters is the one you want.

Likely voters is more apt to favor Republicans as history has shown Republicans show up at the polls in a higher percentage than do Democrats. Although Republicans are still the smaller party of the two. I don't particularly care for Rasmussen as you stated, they don't give the breakdown numbers, just the headline number unless one pays. I'm not about to do that.

 

[haymarket]

I think all one has to do is look at the numbers provided. If they are out of sync with everyone else that does in my mind make them an outlier. ABC and Rasmussen are out of sync. Given most polls have an margin of error of plus or minus 3 or 4 points depending on the number surveyed. All but two of the polls shown by RCP fall into that category.

Then one must look at whom they polled, A Adults, RV registered voters, LV likely voters. That too can make a huge difference in the numbers. Gallup just did adults, no questions asked about voting habits or even if they were a citizen. Adults normally would be the less accurate when it comes to voting. Then registered voters and finally likely voters as the most accurate means of measuring election outcomes.

That said, approval/disapproval numbers aren't about voting. They are how the nations feels or views the president in the case. So all Adults as done by Gallup is probably the most accurate one. Whether you vote or not has nothing to do with approval/disapproval of the president. But if one is looking for how a president's approval numbers may effect an election, then Likely Voters is the one you want.

Likely voters is more apt to favor Republicans as history has shown Republicans show up at the polls in a higher percentage than do Democrats. Although Republicans are still the smaller party of the two. I don't particularly care for Rasmussen as you stated, they don't give the breakdown numbers, just the headline number unless one pays. I'm not about to do that.

Please check the 8/27 polls from Reuters and USA Today. Both had Trump at 40%. So the three are within the margin of error and close to each other.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

 

[JustHanging]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tro...l-high-63-back-mueller-half/story?id=57507081

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll continues a trend shown earlier in the week by other major polls and demonstrates that support for Trump as president is low and going lower.

Support for Impeachment is now at 49% and support for the Mueller investigation - despite a solid month of anti-Mueller propaganda by Trump and company is holding solid among everyone not a Republican.



If this continues to hold through election day in early November, the predictions of a blue wave seem like they could well come true.

btw- only 18% want Trump to pardon his buddy Manafort and most want Sessions to stay on.

Outside of the normal and usual outlier Rasmussen, almost all the polling has shown these downward trends for Trump of late.

And Trump is losing among identifiable groups - even those who have supported him in the past.



It looks more and more like the old Creedence song BAD MOON RISING should be the new Trump theme song

I see the bad moon arising
I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin'
I see bad times today

Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

I hear hurricanes a blowing
I know the end is coming soon
I fear rivers overflowing
I hear the voice of rage and ruin

Don't go around tonight
Well, it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

Hope you got your things together
Hope you are quite prepared to die
Looks like we're in for nasty weather
One eye is taken for an eye

Well don't go around tonight
Well it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

At this point I think the poll numbers are quite meaningless in terms of upcoming elections.

The Russians are not going to give up the House or the Senate without a fight, and they've still got a lot to say.