NATO allies are facing off in the Eastern Mediterranean. The conflict could entangle entire region.

[Athanasius68]

In the absence of a strong hand on the tiller of the fading Western Alliance, this is inevitable.

As the US retreats into isolationism, which is the Trump Administration’s signature foreign policy, the rest of the world shatters and splinters.

Good thing the USA backed Turkey against the Kurds in Syria, I suppose.

 

[Tigerace117]

Sorry, that should read CIA. And yes, they were neck deep in the overthrow as declassified documents prove.

Which, again, only occurred because it was England who was upset they lost their oil and who convinced the US that he was a threat. But yes, if the US had totally ignored Europe’s desires the world would have been a much better place.

 

[Tigerace117]

The FBI had nothing to do with overthrowing Mossadegh?

Nope. Not a thing.

 

[Tangmo]

Well, we may not be able to. The Greek-Turkey conflict is small potatoes compared the the China-Taiwan stand off. We may be shaking our heads at Hong Kong, but Taiwan will not fall to China.
In the last three weeks, China has announced four separate exercises along its coast, from the Bohai Gulf in the north to the East and Yellow Seas and South China Sea, along with other exercises it said were aimed at “the current security situation across the Taiwan Strait”.

Meanwhile Taiwan, claimed by China as its “sacred” territory, said its surface-to-air missiles had tracked approaching Chinese fighters - details Taiwan does not normally give - as U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar was visiting the island this month.

Addressing the Chinese exercises, Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Tuesday the closer Chinese jets get to the island the “more actively” Taipei would respond, though it would “not escalate conflict” nor “trigger an incident”.

The United States sent another warship through the Taiwan Strait this month, a few days after a U.S. carrier group conducted an exercise in the disputed South China Sea, and this week China complained a U.S. spy plane had observed Chinese live-fire exercises.

Chinese military expert Ni Lexiong, a retired professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said it was very rare and possibly the first time multiple Chinese exercises were taking place at the same time.

“By simultaneously conducting drills in the three seas, it means China is testing its ability to fight enemies coming from three directions at the same time - for example from Taiwan, from Japan and from the U.S. from the south,” he said.

“Historically, frequent drills are a clear predictor of war.”

Your points are well taken as Xi wants determinedly to be the guy who incorporates Taiwan into the mainland CCP-PRC. He will fail however.

Beijing's armed forces are incapable of assaulting Taiwan and Xi should know this. PLA, meaning all the armed forces, do not have the amphibious capability to initiate an invasion. The Strait itself is so heavily minded, netted and covered that PLA would need to mount an operation against Taiwan that would make Normandy and D-Day in 1944 look like a Boy Scout excursion.

The bottom line about PLA attacking Taiwan remains what it was for the allies at Normandy in June 1944. That is, if the defender (Taiwan) can destroy or stop 40% of your attacking force (PLA) then you've got to turn back. Because if 40% of your assault force land sea air is destroyed or stopped, and you continue to press forward, you're going to lose 80% of it. We're talking catastrophe for the Boyz in Beijing so let's just look at the Normandy numbers to get some idea of this ages old military principle and reality.

On D-Day June 6, 1944 the allies had 450,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines executing and conducting the assault. Allies landed 200,000 vehicles and put 12,000 allied aircraft over the landing zone and the entire targeted area. Yet allied losses were 10,500 total killed, wounded, missing, prisoner. 180 allied ships were sunk or damaged. Largely because this is nowhere near the proven figure of 40% loses by the attacking force the landing was successful.

Taiwan is a much tougher target for anyone to assault and to overcome than Normandy was for the allies. Taiwan being an island is elusive for the PLA to assault given PLA limited competencies past, current and projected. Taiwan defenses in the Strait are designed to channel the invasion force into a concentrated zone 40 km offshore of the island where they are to be confined and destroyed.

Alternatively, PLA forces attacking from the open sea to the west gets even more complicated to execute given the narrowness of the island and the ability of Taiwan forces to shift their focus to the west. A PLA simultaneous assault to pinch the island would be ill advised given the massive force and logistics PLA would require for such a dual focused operation that would go beyond even Operation Overlord in its ambitions.

Given Xi's fiery rhetoric Taiwan trotted out for the first time its own missile that Taiwan says credibly it has swarms of that is a ground to ground missile of medium range that will be launched en masse against the entire southeast mainland of CCP-PRC should the PLA initiate an invasion assault. A Taiwan missile barrage into the densely populated and thriving SE mainland of China would range from Shanghai to Shantou along the coast and inland resulting in damaged cities and military installations with many dead and injured.

Chinese people don't know about Taiwan's missiles which with their devastation and shock to the people of the People's Republic, combined with the massive and spectacular failure of the PLA invasion force would result a chaos and upheaval on the mainland that no one could predict as to its outcome.

 

[bomberfox]

Ah yes, the old delusion that people in the Third World don’t want democracy and therefore supporting tyrants like Saddam is a-okay. What a load of crap.

We get most of our oil from countries like Canada and Nigeria. If it was really “all about oil” Maduro would be in The Hague right now and US boots would be in Caracas. The oil conspiracy theory is blatantly lazy at best.

The idea that massacres and borderline genocide— like the Taliban were committing against the Hazara— are “only their problem” is pretty pathetic.

That was one of the biggest mistake of the antiwar movement. Defending the status quo, however controlling the spigot of oil in a region gives one a lot of ldverage.

 

[Tigerace117]

That was one of the biggest mistake of the antiwar movement. Defending the status quo, however controlling the spigot of oil in a region gives one a lot of ldverage.

Again, if the US was fighting wars for oil there’d be Marines in Caracas right now. The anti war movement is obsessed with a myth.

 

[bomberfox]

Again, if the US was fighting wars for oil there’d be Marines in Caracas right now. The anti war movement is obsessed with a myth.

Actually we are messing with venezuela all the time and trump is still talking up a coup and with even Pelosi clapping for guaido, their “myth” is in the process of happening. We have been trying to install a lackey in venezuela that has no legitimacy.

 

[Tangmo]

A blockade of Taiwan by Beijing is an easy approach to foresee or to cite.

Yet Taiwan would become aggressive against a Beijing blockade while the world condemned Beijing for its wild and unrestrained aggression against the island sovereign nation and its population.

It's also the case the Miyako Strait just north of Taiwan is controlled and heavily armed by the US and Japan and that PLA armed forces would need to assess whether they wanted to attempt to stop the flow of sustainment to Taiwan by trying to close the Strait or by engaging at the Strait the forces of USA and Japan.

The Bushi Channel is also another key passage way off the China coast that is just south of Taiwan and north of the Philippines and is covered again by USA and Japan. The French Pacific Fleet has been operating in the South China Sea for several years as a part of its Pacific operations and the UK has committed one of its two new aircraft carriers to the SCS and the East Sea between Japan and China.

So a Beijing blockade attempt of Taiwan is a poor strategic option for Beijing given it involves the only two places PLA Navy has available to it as a direct access to the open western Pacific -- Miyako and Bushi -- and that are controlled, heavily fortified and covered by the USA and Japan.

 

[Tigerace117]

Actually we are messing with venezuela all the time and trump is still talking up a coup and with even Pelosi clapping for guaido, their “myth” is in the process of happening. We have been trying to install a lackey in venezuela that has no legitimacy.

Actually, Guiado has one hell of a lot more legitimacy than Maduro, who has been clinging to power at bayonet point as his people starve.