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16:35 p.m.: The Muslim Brotherhood say they will not put up a presidential candidate at the next election. "The Muslim Brotherhood... are not seeking personal gains, so they announce they will not run for the presidency and will not seek to get a majority in the parliament and that they consider themselves servants of these decent people," the Brotherhood said, according to the Reuters news agency. The BBC's Yolande Knell, in Cairo, says this is a restatement of their previous position. The Brotherhood are very wary of how they are seen in the West, our correspondent adds.
Oh, well, since they said it...I'm sold!
The Muslim Brotherhood can always change its position. However, as Egypt is nowhere similar to Iran, it is highly unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood would be able to win the Presidency, much less gain a Parliamentary majority. In Iran, the base of secular nationalism was extremely shallow and superficial. In Egypt, it is broad and deep.
You keep working on the naive assumption that the MB is going to play by the rules.
I made no suggestion of this. I only said that the Muslim Brotherhood will not win the Presidency/Parliamentary majority should it compete in any elections 6-18 months from now. Moreover, the temporary military-led government might not even permit it a voice during the transitional period. Finally, Egypt is not Iran. Had Iran's population had a broad-based commitment to secular nationalism, the Iranian Revolution could never have turned out as it did. In Egypt, both the large commitment to secular nationalism and also the strong role played by the military preclude an Iran-style revolution anytime soon. That does not mean that Egypt is assured to evolve into a liberal democracy. It only means that it is unlikely that Egypt will be transformed into a revolutionary Islamic state anytime soon.
That sounds remarkably like you're assuming that they're going to play by the rules.
I'm not ruling out that they might resort to violence.
They have in the past. However, IMO, the military would crush any attempted coup on their part. Although I suspect that their long-term aspirations remain unchanged, I also suspect that they realize that in the near-term, they need to scale back their aspirations.
Unless the army is in on it with them. Then what?
I'm sorry, but I think that alotta folks are taking a very naive/ignorant view towards this situation.
There's no credible evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood has penetrated the army to any great extent. The near-term will not witness Egypt's becoming a part of an "Islamic caliphate" as some pundits have suggested.
Which is why our support of Mubarak wasn't that bad, despite recrimination from the Left.If you look at Jordan and Algeria, the Muslim brotherhood does not dominate parliament, but they are large enough to form coalitions and influence policy. Egypt has been run by secular nationalists ever since the British left and a theocracy wouldn't gain traction. The MB knows it has the best chance of holding onto power through democratic means. They have no chance against the military and are well aware of that fact.
In your opinion, of course. Yes?
Oh, well, since they said it...I'm sold!
That sounds remarkably like you're assuming that they're going to play by the rules.
Which is why our support of Mubarak wasn't that bad...
I am not surprised. The Muslim Brotherhood understands the realities of Egyptian society and knows that despite its organizational capabilities that it lacks the prospects to win the Egyptian Presidency, much less gain a Parliamentary majority in any representative government. First, Egypt's secular nationalism is too great to permit a theocratic-type or fundamentalist religious government. Second, Egypt's military, which plays a strong role behind the scenes, would not tolerate such an outcome. It remains to be seen whether the Muslim Brotherhood will even be permitted a voice during the transitional period that is being led by Egypt's military.
Consequently, the Muslim Brotherhood's near-term strategy is aimed at gaining a chance to participate in a future government.
I agree on that point. As I noted in the resignation thread, I believe that President Mubarak's legacy will be mixed. He was a political leader who was deeply committed to stability.
Thats it. He was basically moderate and constructive.He Toward that end, he preserved the Egypt-Israel peace agreement his predecessor negotiated and signed. He patiently rebuilt relationships that numerous Arab states had severed following Egypt's signing the peace treaty. He played an energetic and continuing role in trying to facilitate regional peace, all in pursuit of a more stable region. During his tenure, Egypt largely escaped the tide of religious fundamentalism that swept some parts of the Middle East and North Africa. All of those are positive achievements for which the former President deserves credit. His downfall was his inability to address the gap between the economic and social needs of Egypt's population and what his government delivered that widened rapidly. All in all, he was a generally reliable ally.
He could have been much worse. He wasn't the recently mentioned wonderful Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore).
But he wasn't Saddam or even close. Not close even to his contemporary Hafez Assad of Syria either.
If he was he could have put down/savaged this revolt as did the Iranian SOBs or with an action such as Assad's in Hama. (1982)
Thats it. He was basically moderate and constructive.
Think how many lives could have been lost in a tumultuous Egypt many governments of different radical views.
Egypt also won the Cold War for the USA in the Middle East. Switching from the USA to USSR camp and making peace with Israel. Tho that under his similar, and similarly USA supported predecessor, Sadat.
How many lives have been saved by a moderate 30 year Egypt- vs -those lost by someone who was a pretty minor league as tyrants go.
I'm more worried about the short, than long run.There is little doubt that Mubarak acted as an ally of the US for the past 30 years, however, the communist, Islamist backed soft revolt has put an end to that. We are at the begining of a new era, and I feel not a good one for the west in the long run.
I'm more worried about the short, than long run.
Democracy plays in the West's favor in general. I know.. very general.
The revolt was backed also by young facebookers and intellectuals.
If they use the iphones.. we win.
Tho the backbone of any revolt, including this one.. is hoards of impoverished.
More than half of Cairenes are utterly poor ghetto dwellers who would have turned out for any revolt and who won't be helped by democracy. They need Birth Control/One-child policy.
I heard one of the revolt leaders thanking facebook and... no less, it's head. Zuckerberg!
As well as Western Media like CNN which to some degree protected them with the cameras.
Though the biggest party/faction by far now will be 'The hood' with about 1/3 of the electorate.
I see a string they won't field a Prez candidate, but they will be easily the biggest faction in parliament- probably doubling the previous election's 1/6th.
A very Large voting bloc in a country of other unorganized 10% parties.
Certainly Egypt hasn't had en election yet.In many cases in the past to say "democracy" associated with a formerly non democratic state would be a good thing, however today that term has been largely hijacked by the far left in the latest round of their subversion of language.
I'm not a fan of those groups.You left out those on the American far left that turned out to aid the MB, and foment, and further this situation. They include Code Pink, the CPUSA, and Soros backed groups. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if STORM was there also.
I don't think we'll see an Iran.Don't forget the lessons of Iran. We all thought that a democracy was breaking out there as well, until the Ayatollah's took over.
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